Watsco (WSO)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$322.98-1.24%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Watsco’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

13.15 → 13.18 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.73B
EPS	—	1.987
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	7.58B
EPS	—	12.02
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	8.08B
EPS	—	13.182

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Successful execution of asset purchase agreement with Jackson Supply	A supporting condition in Watsco's published investment case. The stated target is Completion and integration of asset purchase by end of 2026.	Intact	Failure to complete or integrate asset purchase by end 2026	Asset purchase agreement executed Apr 23, 2026; target completion by end 2026 WSO entered into an asset purchase agreement with Jackson Supply on April 23, 2026, as reported in 8-K filings. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain or increase dividend payments at or above $3.00 per share quarterly	It raised dividends 10% to $3.00 per share in Q1 2026.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $3.00 quarterly	Dividend per share: $3.30 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.00 per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20263.3 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5810a096-8b3a-4210-ae49-093212bd05d1. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Deliver earnings at or above consensus EPS of $12.63 for FY 2026	A primary condition in Watsco's published investment case. The stated target is >= $12.63 EPS for FY 2026.	Broken	EPS falls below $12.63 for FY 2026	Diluted EPS: $4.00 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $12.63 EPS for FY 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20264 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5810a096-8b3a-4210-ae49-093212bd05d1. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain stable quarterly revenue near $1.53 billion	Watsco keeps stable revenue near $1.53 billion per quarter.	Broken	quarterly revenue falls below $1.53 billion	Revenue: $2.105B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.53 billion per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20262,104,859,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5810a096-8b3a-4210-ae49-093212bd05d1. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$13.18

$13.74 → $13.18 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$8.08B

$8.05B → $8.08B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$13.74	$8,046,771,000	7 / 10
2026-07-25	$13.74	$8,046,771,000	7 / 10
2026-07-26	$13.74	$8,046,771,000	7 / 10
2026-07-27	$13.74	$8,046,771,000	7 / 10
2026-07-28	$13.74	$8,046,771,000	7 / 10
2026-07-29	$13.74	$8,046,771,000	7 / 10
2026-07-30	$13.74	$8,046,771,000	7 / 10
2026-07-31	$13.30	$7,969,334,428	7 / 10
2026-08-01	$13.30	$7,969,334,428	7 / 10
2026-08-02	$13.26	$7,959,957,510	10 / 14
2026-08-03	$13.22	$7,973,277,285	8 / 10
2026-08-04	$13.26	$7,959,957,510	10 / 14
2026-08-05	$13.26	$7,959,957,510	10 / 14
2026-08-06	$13.22	$7,973,277,285	8 / 10
2026-08-08	$13.22	$7,973,277,285	9 / 11
2026-08-09	$13.22	$7,973,277,285	9 / 11
2026-08-10	$13.26	$7,959,957,510	10 / 14
2026-08-12	$13.22	$7,973,277,285	9 / 11
2026-08-13	$13.26	$7,959,957,510	10 / 14
2026-08-14	$13.22	$7,973,277,285	9 / 11
2026-08-15	$13.22	$7,973,277,285	9 / 11
2026-08-16	$13.22	$7,973,277,285	9 / 11
2026-08-17	$13.22	$7,973,277,285	9 / 11
2026-08-18	$13.22	$7,973,277,285	9 / 11
2026-08-19	$13.22	$7,973,277,285	9 / 11
2026-08-20	$13.14	$7,965,221,692	9 / 11
2026-08-21	$13.14	$7,960,746,283	9 / 11
2026-08-22	$13.14	$7,960,746,283	9 / 11
2026-08-23	$13.14	$7,960,746,283	9 / 11
2026-08-24	$13.14	$7,960,746,283	9 / 11
2026-08-25	$13.14	$7,960,746,283	9 / 11
2026-08-26	$13.14	$7,960,746,283	9 / 11
2026-08-27	$13.14	$7,960,746,283	9 / 11
2026-08-28	$13.14	$7,960,746,283	9 / 11
2026-08-29	$13.14	$7,960,746,283	9 / 11
2026-08-30	$13.14	$7,960,746,283	9 / 11
2026-08-31	$13.14	$7,960,746,283	9 / 11
2026-09-01	$13.15	$7,963,977,052	9 / 11
2026-09-02	$13.15	$7,963,977,052	9 / 11
2026-09-03	$13.15	$7,963,977,052	9 / 11
2026-09-04	$13.15	$7,963,977,052	9 / 11
2026-09-05	$13.15	$7,963,977,052	9 / 11
2026-09-06	$13.15	$7,963,977,052	9 / 11
2026-09-07	$13.15	$7,963,977,052	9 / 11
2026-09-08	$13.15	$7,963,977,052	9 / 11
2026-09-09	$13.15	$7,963,977,052	9 / 11
2026-09-10	$13.15	$7,963,977,052	9 / 11
2026-09-11	$13.15	$7,963,938,746	9 / 11
2026-09-12	$13.15	$7,963,938,746	9 / 11
2026-09-13	$13.15	$7,963,938,746	9 / 11
2026-09-14	$13.15	$7,963,938,746	9 / 11
2026-09-15	$13.15	$7,963,938,746	9 / 11
2026-09-16	$13.15	$7,963,938,746	9 / 11
2026-09-17	$13.15	$7,963,938,746	9 / 11
2026-09-18	$13.15	$7,963,938,746	9 / 11
2026-09-19	$13.15	$7,963,938,746	9 / 11
2026-09-20	$13.15	$7,963,938,746	9 / 11
2026-09-21	$13.15	$7,963,938,746	9 / 11
2026-09-22	$13.15	$7,963,938,746	9 / 11
2026-09-23	$13.15	$7,963,938,746	9 / 11
2026-09-24	$13.15	$7,963,938,746	9 / 11
2026-09-25	$13.15	$7,963,938,746	9 / 11
2026-09-26	$13.15	$7,963,938,746	9 / 11
2026-09-27	$13.15	$7,963,938,746	9 / 11
2026-09-28	$13.15	$7,963,938,746	9 / 11
2026-09-29	$13.15	$7,963,938,746	9 / 11
2026-09-30	$13.15	$7,963,938,746	9 / 11
2026-10-01	$13.15	$7,963,938,746	9 / 11
2026-10-02	$13.15	$7,963,938,746	9 / 11
2026-10-03	$13.15	$7,963,938,746	9 / 11
2026-10-04	$13.15	$7,963,938,746	9 / 11
2026-10-05	$13.15	$7,963,938,745	9 / 11
2026-10-06	$13.15	$7,963,938,745	9 / 11
2026-10-07	$13.15	$7,963,938,745	9 / 11
2026-10-08	$13.15	$7,963,938,745	9 / 11
2026-10-09	$13.23	$8,005,645,691	8 / 11
2026-10-10	$13.23	$8,005,645,691	8 / 11
2026-10-11	$13.18	$7,994,556,149	8 / 11
2026-10-12	$13.18	$7,995,542,757	8 / 11
2026-10-13	$13.18	$7,995,581,064	8 / 11
2026-10-14	$13.18	$7,995,581,064	8 / 11
2026-10-15	$13.18	$7,995,581,064	8 / 11
2026-10-16	$13.15	$7,995,581,064	8 / 11
2026-10-17	$13.15	$7,995,581,064	8 / 11
2026-10-18	$13.15	$7,995,581,064	9 / 10
2026-10-19	$13.15	$7,995,581,064	9 / 10
2026-10-20	$13.15	$7,995,581,064	9 / 10
2026-10-21	$13.15	$8,034,481,064	9 / 10
2026-10-22	$13.15	$8,034,481,064	9 / 10
2026-10-23	$13.15	$8,034,481,064	9 / 10
2026-10-24	$13.18	$8,077,250,295	9 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	11	1
2026-06-01	3	10	1
2026-07-01	3	10	1
2026-08-01	3	10	1
2026-09-01	3	10	1
2026-10-01	4	10	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 12 · prior Jul 10

$405.00 → $330.00-18.5%

$0$222.75$445.50

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain or increase dividend payments at or above $3.00 per share quarterlyDividend per share: $3.30 per share
Deliver earnings at or above consensus EPS of $12.63 for FY 2026Published status: Broken
Maintain stable quarterly revenue near $1.53 billionPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-38.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Watsco outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

WSO is a steady industrial business with a technology investment and dividend-growth component, rather than a turnaround story. Its multi-year view is currently intact, though earnings quality is fragile and recent performance is neutral.

What's priced into Watsco

WSO trades at a 24% premium to peers, while the valuation assessment is neutral and expectations are broadly aligned with the model. The expectations gap is small, and the priced-in assessment is justified rather than highly fragile; valuation has also fallen by 12 points recently.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year horizon, technology execution has support from continued digital investment, growing e-commerce sales, and OnCallAir activity. Management has also followed through on its dividend priority, but near-term earnings quality is fragile: WSO has missed recently, and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What Watsco hinges on

The next call is an important near-term test, since a guidance cut would add to concerns about execution. Over the coming quarters, results and guidance from industrial bellwethers GWW, FAST, and FERG could signal whether sector conditions are improving or weakening.