Reading QXO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track QXO free→Reading QXO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track QXO free→NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year, and risk is high. Peer multiples imply a price about 276% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from QXO and the performance of sector bellwethers like GWW, FAST, and FERG. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $16.68. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $17 QXO trades at 2× p/s — 1.6× the 1× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $6.49 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $26–$32. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 157% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 100%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.57x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.13 → $0.10 (-25.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
3 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$288.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$520.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,437.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Closing the Senior Notes will impact QXO's capital structure and funding for growth.
Confirms:The $1,500 million Senior Notes due 2031 and 2034 issuance closes on June 17, 2026.
Disproves:The issuance fails to close or is delayed beyond the expected date.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for QXO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. Tender Offers and Consent Solicitations On June 12, 2026, QXO, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “ Company ” or “ QXO ”), issued a press release announcing the early tender results of the previously announced tender offers and consent solicitations (collectively, the “ Tender Offers and Consent Solicitations ”) by the Company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Titanium MergerCo, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “ Offeror ”), for the (i) $500.0 million aggregate principal amount of outs…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$26.00 – $32.00 (median $31.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-14
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Trading Companies & Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
QXO QXO Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 3 of 100 | expensive | high |
URI United Rentals | — | expensive | moderate |
FAST Fastenal | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FERG FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | full | moderate |
SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | — | inexpensive | moderate |
23 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Target $50 billion in annual revenues within the next decade through acquisitions and organic growth.
Complete the acquisition of TopBuild to enhance growth and market position.
Raise $3 billion through the issuance of Senior Notes to support capital allocation strategies.
QXO aims to improve operating income, which has been negative in recent quarters.
Why it matters: Higher operating income helps QXO grow over time. It also builds trust with investors.
Confirms:The Q2 earnings report on August 13, 2026, shows operating income is up from last year.
Disproves:Operating income falls or stays the same year over year in the Q2 earnings report.
Why it matters: The acquisition could greatly increase QXO's revenue and market share.
Confirms:TopBuild stockholders choose their form of payment by the June 29 deadline.
Disproves:TopBuild stockholders reject the acquisition or it does not meet the conditions.
Other Events. On June 4, 2026, QXO, Inc. (“QXO”) and TopBuild Corp. (“TopBuild”) issued a joint press release (the “Joint Press Release”) announcing that the deadline for TopBuild stockholders of record to elect the form of consideration that they wish to receive in connection with the acquisition of TopBuild by QXO is 5:00 p.m., Eastern Time on June 29, 2026. A copy of the Joint Press Release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference. Cautionary Statement Reg…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On June 3, 2026, QXO, Inc. (“QXO”) announced that its wholly owned subsidiary, QXO Building Products, Inc., priced its offering of $1,500.0 million of 6.500% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “2031 Notes”) and $1,500.0 million of 6.875% Senior Notes due 2034 (the “2034 Notes” and, together with the 2031 Notes, the “Notes”) at an issue price of 100%. The offering is expected to close on June 17, 2026, subject to customary closing conditions. The Notes are being offered and s…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On June 2, 2026, QXO, Inc. (“QXO”) announced a proposed private offering of $1,500.0 million Senior Notes due 2031 (the “2031 Notes”) and $1,500.0 million Senior Notes due 2034 (the “2034 Notes” and, together with the 2031 Notes, the “Notes”) by QXO Building Products, Inc., its wholly owned subsidiary, to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers in reliance on Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), and t…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.