Reading SITE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SITE free→Reading SITE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SITE free→NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed, indicating some inconsistency in cash backing reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, which may raise concerns. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with SITE performing below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. If SITE cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $107.63. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $107 SITE trades at 27× p/e, below its 28× p/e peer median. Our $110 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $140–$160. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 3% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.02x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.34 → $3.36 (+0.7% / 30d). 4 raised, 3 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$195.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$341.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,749.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows how much people want SiteOne's products and services.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase by more than 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decline by more than 1% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SITE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the first quarter ended March 29, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$140.00 – $160.00 (median $157.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-04-30
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Trading Companies & Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SITE SiteOne Landscape Supply Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 29 of 100 | fair | moderate |
URI United Rentals | — | expensive | moderate |
FAST Fastenal | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FERG FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | full | moderate |
SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | — | inexpensive | low |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $425 million to $455 million for fiscal year 2026.
Management is focusing on capital allocation and managing financial obligations, including credit agreements.
Management is focused on ensuring smooth transitions in executive roles, particularly with the retirement of key personnel.
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates can raise borrowing costs. This can lower consumer spending and impact SiteOne's market.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates by 25 basis points or more.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for SiteOne's performance.
Confirms:Three-year revenue growth in the industrials sector rises above 7%.
Disproves:Three-year revenue growth stays below 5%.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 22, 2026, certain subsidiaries of SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. entered into the First Amendment to Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of April 22, 2026 (the “First Amendment”), by and among SiteOne Landscape Supply Holding, LLC and SiteOne Landscape Supply, LLC, as borrowers (collectively, the “Borrowers”), JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent and collateral agent, swingline lender and issuing lender (the “Agent…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information contained in
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 31, 2026, SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Scott Salmon will retire from his role as Executive Vice President, Strategy and Development, effective March 31, 2026 (the “Transition Date”). Following this date, Mr. Salmon will continue his employment with the Company for a duration of time to assist with an orderl…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 11, 2026, SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year ended December 28, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.