Reading CNM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CNM free→Reading CNM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CNM free→NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 27% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like GWW, FAST, and FERG. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $47.80. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $48 CNM trades at 20× p/e, below its 28× p/e peer median. Our $65 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 27% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.97x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.78 → $0.84 (+7.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 64% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -52.1% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$125.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$299.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,388.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'inexpensive' to 'fair'.
As of June 16, 2026, the valuation changed, moving from inexpensive to fair. Risk fell, indicating a decrease in overall risk. The sector backdrop remained a headwind, suggesting ongoing challenges in the industry environment. The company's earnings quality is described as fragile, which may reflect concerns about its financial stability.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This would signal a failure to meet the company's growth target for the year.
Confirms:Q2 net sales growth reported below 2%.
Disproves:Q2 net sales growth reported at or above 2%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CNM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and in Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2 is being “furnished” herewith and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing made by Core & Main under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filings, except as shall be e…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Trading Companies & Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CNM Core & Main | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | fair | moderate |
URI United Rentals | — | expensive | moderate |
FAST Fastenal | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FERG FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | full | moderate |
SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | — | inexpensive | low |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Core & Main aims to achieve net sales growth of 2% to 3% for fiscal 2026.
Core & Main is executing its growth strategy supported by changes in its board of directors.
Core & Main aims to achieve operating cash flow of 60% to 70% of Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: This shows a strong commitment to giving money back to shareholders.
Confirms:Total share repurchases in Q2 exceed $100 million.
Disproves:Total share repurchases in Q2 are below $50 million.
Why it matters: This shows a possible problem with making cash compared to earnings.
Confirms:Operating cash flow is less than 60% of Adjusted EBITDA.
Disproves:Operating cash flow is at or above 60% of Adjusted EBITDA.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of M. Susan Hardwick as a New Director On March 27, 2026, Core & Main, Inc. (together with its indirect subsidiary, Core & Main LP, as applicable, the “Company”) announced that effective as of April 1, 2026 (the “Transition Date”), the Board of Directors of the Company (the “Board”) increased the number of Class III directors and appoin…
Other Events. Credit Agreement Amendment On April 9, 2026, Core & Main LP, a Florida limited partnership (“ Core & Main ”), an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Core & Main, Inc., entered into Amendment No. 6 (“ Amendment No. 6 ”) to its existing ABL Credit Agreement, dated as of August 1, 2017, as amended by Amendment No. 1, dated as of July 8, 2019, Amendment No. 2, dated as of May 4, 2020, Amendment No. 3, dated as of July 27, 2021, Amendment No. 4, dated as of July 29, 2022, and Amendme…
Results of Operations and Financial Conditions. On March 24, 2026, Core & Main, Inc. (“Core & Main”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the fiscal fourth quarter and the fiscal year ended February 1, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. On March 24, 2026, Core & Main posted to the “Investor Relations” section of its website the presentation that accompanied the earnings conference call. A copy of the investor presentation is attach…