Core & Main (CNM)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$41.97-0.85%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Core & Main’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.42 → 3.42 EPS · FY ending Feb 1, 2028 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	—	2.13B
EPS	—	0.918
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.65B
EPS	—	0.547
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$7.8B–$7.9B	7.84B
EPS	—	3.107
EBITDA	$950M–$980Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	8.18B
EPS	—	3.417

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Operating cash flow conversion at 60% to 70% of adjusted EBITDA	Profit margins stay near 65% cash flow conversion.	Intact	cash flow conversion falls below 55% over next 4 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating cash flow was $144 million for the first half of 2026, up from $111 million in the prior year period. Management reaffirmed guidance targeting operating cash flow at 60% to 70% of adjusted EBITDA. The trajectory shows progress in cash flow generation consistent with stated goals. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Effective execution of growth strategy with recent leadership changes	Recent earnings beats show good execution despite market pressure.	Intact	Leadership changes disrupt growth strategy execution significantly	Qualitative: Growth strategy advancing (reaffirmed $7.8B-$7.9B outlook, 8-10 openings) CNM reaffirmed fiscal 2026 sales outlook and targeted 8-10 greenfield openings, reinforcing growth strategy execution. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management announced board changes including appointment of Susan Hardwick to strengthen leadership and support growth strategy execution. No direct financial metrics tied to this priority yet, so delivery is early stage. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain revenue growth of 2% to 3% annually	A primary condition in Core & Main's published investment case. The stated target is 2% to 3% annual growth.	Intact	annual revenue growth falls below 1% in FY26	Revenue growth: 2.48% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 2% to 3% annual growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 9, 20262.484472 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 2, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 888296ed-b627-44e7-9d36-f513b42a44a5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management announced board changes including appointment of Susan Hardwick to strengthen leadership and support growth strategy execution. No direct financial metrics tied to this priority yet, so delivery is early stage. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-02-01 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$3.42

$3.00 → $3.42 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$8.18B

$8.21B → $8.18B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.00	$8,212,224,905	5 / 9
2026-07-25	$3.00	$8,212,224,905	5 / 9
2026-07-26	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	5 / 10
2026-07-27	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	5 / 10
2026-07-28	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	5 / 10
2026-07-29	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	5 / 10
2026-07-30	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	5 / 10
2026-07-31	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	5 / 10
2026-08-01	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	5 / 10
2026-08-02	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	5 / 10
2026-08-03	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	5 / 10
2026-08-04	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	5 / 10
2026-08-05	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	5 / 10
2026-08-06	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	5 / 10
2026-08-07	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	5 / 10
2026-08-08	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	5 / 10
2026-08-09	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	5 / 10
2026-08-10	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	5 / 10
2026-08-11	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	5 / 10
2026-08-12	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	5 / 10
2026-08-13	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	5 / 10
2026-08-14	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	5 / 10
2026-08-15	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	6 / 10
2026-08-16	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	6 / 10
2026-08-17	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	6 / 10
2026-08-18	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	6 / 10
2026-08-19	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	6 / 10
2026-08-20	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	6 / 10
2026-08-21	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	6 / 10
2026-08-22	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	6 / 10
2026-08-23	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	6 / 10
2026-08-24	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	6 / 10
2026-08-25	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	6 / 10
2026-08-26	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	6 / 10
2026-08-27	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	6 / 10
2026-08-28	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	6 / 10
2026-08-29	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	6 / 10
2026-08-30	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	6 / 10
2026-08-31	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	6 / 10
2026-09-01	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	6 / 10
2026-09-02	$3.50	$8,205,675,144	6 / 10
2026-09-03	$3.49	$8,198,982,837	6 / 10
2026-09-04	$3.49	$8,198,982,837	6 / 10
2026-09-05	$3.49	$8,198,982,837	6 / 10
2026-09-06	$3.49	$8,198,982,837	6 / 10
2026-09-07	$3.49	$8,198,982,837	6 / 10
2026-09-08	$3.49	$8,198,982,837	6 / 10
2026-09-09	$3.49	$8,198,982,837	6 / 10
2026-09-10	$3.42	$8,181,987,286	6 / 10
2026-09-11	$3.41	$8,181,778,942	6 / 10
2026-09-12	$3.41	$8,181,778,942	6 / 10
2026-09-13	$3.41	$8,181,778,942	6 / 10
2026-09-14	$3.41	$8,181,778,942	6 / 10
2026-09-15	$3.41	$8,181,778,942	6 / 10
2026-09-16	$3.42	$8,179,471,249	6 / 10
2026-09-17	$3.42	$8,179,471,249	6 / 10
2026-09-18	$3.42	$8,179,471,249	6 / 10
2026-09-19	$3.42	$8,179,471,249	6 / 10
2026-09-20	$3.42	$8,179,471,249	6 / 10
2026-09-21	$3.42	$8,179,471,249	6 / 10
2026-09-22	$3.42	$8,179,471,249	6 / 10
2026-09-23	$3.42	$8,179,471,249	6 / 10
2026-09-24	$3.42	$8,179,471,249	6 / 10
2026-09-25	$3.42	$8,179,471,249	6 / 10
2026-09-26	$3.42	$8,179,471,249	6 / 10
2026-09-27	$3.42	$8,179,471,249	6 / 10
2026-09-28	$3.42	$8,179,471,249	6 / 10
2026-09-29	$3.42	$8,179,471,249	6 / 10
2026-09-30	$3.42	$8,179,471,249	6 / 10
2026-10-01	$3.42	$8,179,471,249	6 / 10
2026-10-02	$3.42	$8,179,471,249	6 / 10
2026-10-03	$3.42	$8,179,471,249	6 / 9
2026-10-04	$3.42	$8,179,471,249	6 / 9
2026-10-05	$3.42	$8,179,471,249	6 / 9
2026-10-06	$3.42	$8,179,471,249	6 / 9
2026-10-07	$3.42	$8,179,471,249	6 / 9
2026-10-08	$3.42	$8,175,717,403	6 / 9
2026-10-09	$3.42	$8,175,717,403	6 / 9
2026-10-10	$3.42	$8,175,717,403	6 / 9
2026-10-11	$3.42	$8,175,717,403	6 / 9
2026-10-12	$3.42	$8,175,717,403	6 / 9
2026-10-13	$3.42	$8,175,717,403	6 / 9
2026-10-14	$3.42	$8,175,717,403	6 / 9
2026-10-15	$3.42	$8,175,717,403	6 / 9
2026-10-16	$3.42	$8,175,717,403	6 / 9
2026-10-17	$3.42	$8,175,717,403	6 / 9
2026-10-18	$3.42	$8,175,717,403	6 / 9
2026-10-19	$3.42	$8,175,717,403	6 / 9
2026-10-20	$3.42	$8,175,717,403	6 / 9
2026-10-21	$3.42	$8,175,717,403	6 / 9
2026-10-22	$3.42	$8,175,717,403	6 / 9
2026-10-23	$3.42	$8,175,717,403	6 / 9
2026-10-24	$3.42	$8,175,717,403	6 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	4	1
2026-06-01	9	4	1
2026-07-01	9	5	1
2026-08-01	9	6	1
2026-09-01	8	6	1
2026-10-01	8	6	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 7

$57.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$31.35$62.70

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Operating cash flow conversion at 60% to 70% of adjusted EBITDADirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain revenue growth of 2% to 3% annuallyRevenue growth: 2.48%

Next proof point

Dec 8, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Core & Main outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CNM is a steady-growth industrial business rather than a high-growth story. Its multi-year view is intact, with revenue and cash-flow priorities on track, though management’s newer growth-strategy effort is still early.

What's priced into Core & Main

CNM is valued cheaply versus peers, and the evidence labels current expectations as justified rather than unusually fragile. The expectations gap is negative, so the valuation does not appear to assume especially strong execution; however, the evidence does not give enough detail to quantify what the market expects.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth has tracked management’s 2% to 3% goal, and operating cash flow improved year over year in the first half of 2026. Guidance was reaffirmed as of June 2026, and a September earnings beat supports the recent business picture, but peer misses and a prior deep miss are risks. Over the multi-year view, delivery depends on sustaining growth and cash conversion while the board changes and growth strategy begin to show measurable results.

What Core & Main hinges on

A guidance cut at the next call would weaken the thesis, while continued delivery against the stated revenue and cash-flow goals would support it. Near term, results and guidance from industrial peers GWW, FAST, and FERG are important signals: continued strength could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.