MSC Industrial Direct (MSM)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-10-30
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-10-30
Research Workspace
Put MSM beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Trading Companies & Distributors: fringe margins under pressure (4q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 6% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskMSM's industrial performance is the core claim, though reported profits are weakly backed by cash. Revenue growth accelerated from 7.8% to 10.3%, with Q4 FY2026 earnings beating consensus. MSM trades at 26× P/E versus a 23× peer median. The price reflects less growth than our forecast, despite that premium. Management is behind on a stated commitment, and the next-quarter miss probability is 25%. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% below where it trades; the thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. MSM is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 13 analysts currently covering MSM (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 8 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for MSM in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare MSM with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
Compare now without an account. Saving and monitoring require an account.
| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSM Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Trading Companies & Distributors — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put MSM next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
Strong sales growth aligns with revenue growth objective.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $121.02
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $121.02.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Maintain strong gross profit margins
Cost-cutting plan directly supports margin maintenance.