Reading MSM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MSM free→Reading MSM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MSM free→NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating some inconsistency in cash backing reported profits. Management's track record has been fairly steady, and risk is low, although the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of key bellwethers in the Industrials sector. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $117.39. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $117 MSM trades at 29× p/e, in line with its 28× p/e peer median. Our $109 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $117–$145. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 8% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.45x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.26 → $1.27 (+1.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 13% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.1% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$113.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$221.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,187.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
risk label changed from 'moderate' to 'low'.
Risk fell. The risk label changed to low. The sector backdrop remains a headwind. The overall situation is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports MSC's ability to invest and pay debts. This is crucial for financial health.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations remains above the current level of 72% in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations drops below 70% in the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Maintain strong gross profit margins
Cost-cutting plan directly supports margin maintenance.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangement of Certain Officers On April 10, 2026, Neal Dongre notified MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (the “Company”) of his decision to voluntarily resign from his position as Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary of the Company. Mr. Dongre will continue to serve in his current position until his successor joins the Company and will continue as an employ…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$117.00 – $145.00 (median $120.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Trading Companies & Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MSM MSC Industrial Direct | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | full | low |
URI United Rentals | — | expensive | moderate |
FAST Fastenal | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FERG FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | full | moderate |
SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | — | inexpensive | low |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Continue efforts to maintain strong gross profit margins despite market challenges.
Focus on enhancing cash flow from operations to support strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change company strategy and how it works. This may affect performance.
Confirms one read:There are positive updates on plans after the General Counsel change.
Confirms the other:There are negative updates or delays in plans after the General Counsel change.
Why it matters: Accelerating revenue growth would show MSC's growth strategies are working. It could boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Q3 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q3 revenue growth remains at or below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: A return to higher revenue growth would signal improved business momentum. This could help MSC catch up on its growth priority.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported at 6% or higher in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 6% in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports MSC's growth plans. Falling cash flow could raise concerns about financial health.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations exceeds $100M in Q3.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations falls below $80M in Q3.
Why it matters: This growth will show if MSC is improving its revenue trend. It is key for future sales.
Confirms:Average daily sales growth reported between 5% and 7% year over year.
Disproves:Average daily sales growth is below 5% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow shows MSC's financial health and ability to fund growth.
Confirms:Cash flow conversion rate reported above 90%.
Disproves:Cash flow conversion rate reported below 90%.
Why it matters: Maintaining strong margins is key for MSC's profitability. A drop could signal cost issues.
Confirms:Gross profit margins remain above 40% for Q3.
Disproves:Gross profit margins fall below 38% for Q3.
Why it matters: Improving margins would show MSC is managing costs better. This is key for maintaining profitability.
Confirms:Gross profit margins increase by at least 1% in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Gross profit margins decline or stay flat in the next earnings report.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 1, 2026, MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for its fiscal 2026 second quarter ended February 28, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished with this report as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934…
Regulation FD Disclosure On March 19, 2026, MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.87 per share on the common stock of the Company. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Current Report on Form 8‑K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangement of Certain Officers On March 2, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (the “Company”) elected Reuben Slone to serve as a non-executive director, effective immediately, increasing the size of the Board from ten to eleven members. Mr. Slone will join the Board as an independent director and will serve as a member of the Audit Commit…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangement of Certain Officers Resignation of Erik Gershwind as Chief Executive Officer, Effective December 31, 2025 On October 20, 2025, Erik Gershwind notified the Chairman of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of the Company of his decision to voluntarily resign as part of a planned transition from his position as Chief Executive Officer of the Company, effective December 31,…