Reading FERG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FERG free→Reading FERG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FERG free→NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality is neutral and management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of key bellwethers in the Industrials sector. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $235.67. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $236 FERG trades at 22× p/e, below its 28× p/e peer median. Our $216 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $271–$300. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 9% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.30x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.30 → $3.29 (-0.4% / 30d). 9 raised, 9 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 70% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$132.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$302.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,831.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The FOMC's decisions could impact interest rates and economic growth. This affects Ferguson's cost of capital and demand.
Confirms one read:The FOMC raises interest rates. This shows the economy is strong.
Confirms the other:The FOMC cuts interest rates. This shows the economy is weak.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FERG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (including its consolidated subsidiaries, the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information disclosed pursuant to this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purp…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$271.00 – $300.00 (median $297.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-08
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Trading Companies & Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FERG FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | full | moderate |
URI United Rentals | — | expensive | moderate |
FAST Fastenal | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | — | inexpensive | moderate |
WCC WESCO International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | fair | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Ferguson aims to sustain an adjusted operating margin within the 9.4% to 9.8% range for fiscal year 2026.
Ferguson plans capital expenditures between $350 million and $400 million for fiscal year 2026.
Ferguson aims for low to mid-single digit revenue growth for the calendar year 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the industrials sector. This would be important for Ferguson's long-term outlook.
Confirms:Three-year revenue growth in the industrials sector rises above 7%.
Disproves:Three-year revenue growth stays at or below 5%.
Why it matters: Strong retail sales could indicate better demand for Ferguson's products. This may boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth above 1% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales growth is flat or negative month over month.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 24, 2026, Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (including its consolidated subsidiaries, the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the period ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information disclosed pursuant to this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed”…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On December 9, 2025, Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (including its consolidated subsidiaries, the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended October 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information disclosed pursuant to this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” f…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On September 16, 2025, Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (including its consolidated subsidiaries, the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the quarter and fiscal year ended July 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information disclosed pursuant to this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be d…