FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC (FERG)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$226.86-0.20%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

13.92 → 13.88 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	8.1B
EPS	—	2.43
Annual ending 2027-06-30
Revenue	—	35.27B
EPS	—	12.583
Annual ending 2028-06-30
Revenue	—	37.1B
EPS	—	13.88

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capex of $350-$400 million to support growth	Capital spending rises to $350-$400 million to support growth.	Recovered	Capex falls below $350M or exceeds $400M in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain operating margin between 9.4% and 9.8%	A primary condition in FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC's published investment case. The stated target is >=9.4% operating margin.	Intact	Operating margin falls below 9.4% in FY26	Operating margin: 10.2% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=9.4% operating margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 202610.204548 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted operating margin improved from 8.7% in 2025-Q2 to 9.3% in 2026-Q2, approaching the guided range of 9.4% to 9.8%. Management maintained guidance and delivered margin expansion, indicating progress toward the target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve low to mid-single digit revenue growth	A primary condition in FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC's published investment case. The stated target is >=4% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below 4% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew 4.2% year-to-date through 2026-Q2 from $15.6B to $16.2B, driven by organic growth and acquisitions. Management raised full year 2026 net sales guidance from low to mid-single digit to mid-single digit growth, indicating delivery and upward trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$13.88

$13.93 → $13.88 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$37.10B

$36.79B → $37.10B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-08-10	$13.93	$36,791,882,585	7 / 14
2026-08-11	$13.93	$36,791,882,585	7 / 14
2026-08-12	$13.93	$36,791,882,585	7 / 14
2026-08-13	$13.93	$36,791,882,585	7 / 14
2026-08-14	$13.93	$36,791,882,585	7 / 14
2026-08-15	$13.93	$36,791,882,585	7 / 14
2026-08-16	$13.93	$36,791,882,585	7 / 14
2026-08-17	$13.93	$36,791,882,585	7 / 14
2026-08-18	$13.93	$36,791,882,585	7 / 14
2026-08-19	$13.93	$36,791,882,585	7 / 14
2026-08-20	$13.92	$37,065,695,071	7 / 14
2026-08-21	$13.95	$37,108,491,678	7 / 14
2026-08-22	$13.95	$37,108,491,678	7 / 14
2026-08-23	$13.95	$37,108,491,678	7 / 14
2026-08-24	$13.95	$37,108,491,678	7 / 14
2026-08-25	$13.95	$37,108,491,678	7 / 14
2026-08-26	$13.95	$37,108,491,678	7 / 14
2026-08-27	$13.95	$37,108,491,678	7 / 14
2026-08-28	$13.95	$37,108,491,678	7 / 14
2026-08-29	$13.95	$37,108,491,678	7 / 14
2026-08-30	$13.95	$37,108,491,678	7 / 14
2026-08-31	$13.95	$37,108,491,678	7 / 14
2026-09-01	$13.95	$37,108,491,678	7 / 14
2026-09-02	$13.95	$37,108,491,678	7 / 14
2026-09-03	$13.95	$37,108,491,678	7 / 14
2026-09-04	$13.95	$37,108,491,678	7 / 14
2026-09-05	$13.95	$37,108,491,678	7 / 14
2026-09-06	$13.95	$37,108,491,678	7 / 14
2026-09-07	$13.95	$37,108,491,678	7 / 14
2026-09-08	$13.95	$37,108,491,678	7 / 14
2026-09-09	$13.95	$37,108,491,678	7 / 14
2026-09-10	$13.95	$37,108,491,678	7 / 14
2026-09-11	$13.95	$37,108,491,678	7 / 14
2026-09-12	$13.95	$37,108,491,678	7 / 14
2026-09-13	$13.95	$37,108,491,678	7 / 14
2026-09-14	$13.95	$37,108,491,678	7 / 14
2026-09-15	$13.95	$37,108,491,678	7 / 14
2026-09-16	$13.92	$37,099,636,587	7 / 14
2026-09-17	$13.92	$37,099,636,587	7 / 14
2026-09-18	$13.92	$37,099,636,587	7 / 14
2026-09-19	$13.92	$37,099,636,587	7 / 14
2026-09-20	$13.92	$37,099,612,187	7 / 14
2026-09-21	$13.92	$37,099,612,187	7 / 14
2026-09-22	$13.92	$37,099,612,187	7 / 14
2026-09-23	$13.92	$37,099,612,187	7 / 14
2026-09-24	$13.92	$37,099,612,187	7 / 14
2026-09-25	$13.92	$37,099,612,187	7 / 14
2026-09-26	$13.92	$37,099,612,187	7 / 14
2026-09-27	$13.92	$37,099,612,187	7 / 14
2026-09-28	$13.92	$37,099,612,187	7 / 14
2026-09-29	$13.92	$37,099,612,187	7 / 14
2026-09-30	$13.92	$37,099,612,187	7 / 14
2026-10-01	$13.92	$37,099,612,187	7 / 14
2026-10-02	$13.92	$37,099,454,769	7 / 14
2026-10-03	$13.92	$37,099,454,769	7 / 14
2026-10-04	$13.92	$37,099,454,769	7 / 14
2026-10-05	$13.92	$37,099,454,769	7 / 14
2026-10-06	$13.92	$37,099,454,769	7 / 14
2026-10-07	$13.93	$37,125,833,538	7 / 14
2026-10-08	$13.95	$37,125,977,838	7 / 14
2026-10-09	$13.90	$37,070,315,070	7 / 14
2026-10-10	$13.90	$37,070,315,070	7 / 14
2026-10-11	$13.90	$37,070,315,070	7 / 14
2026-10-12	$13.90	$37,070,315,070	7 / 14
2026-10-13	$13.90	$37,070,315,070	7 / 14
2026-10-14	$13.90	$37,070,315,070	7 / 14
2026-10-15	$13.90	$37,070,315,070	7 / 14
2026-10-16	$13.86	$37,044,167,757	7 / 14
2026-10-17	$13.86	$37,044,167,757	7 / 14
2026-10-18	$13.88	$37,104,045,787	7 / 14
2026-10-19	$13.88	$37,104,045,787	7 / 14
2026-10-20	$13.88	$37,104,045,787	7 / 14
2026-10-21	$13.88	$37,104,045,787	7 / 14
2026-10-22	$13.88	$37,104,045,787	7 / 14
2026-10-23	$13.88	$37,104,045,787	7 / 14
2026-10-24	$13.88	$37,104,045,787	7 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	17	7
2026-06-01	16	7
2026-07-01	16	8
2026-08-01	14	8
2026-09-01	15	8
2026-10-01	15	9

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 7 · prior Aug 11

$290.00 → $286.00-1.4%

Melius ResearchOct 6

$252.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$159.50$319.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capex of $350-$400 million to support growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain operating margin between 9.4% and 9.8%Operating margin: 10.2%
Achieve low to mid-single digit revenue growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FERG represents a stable investment in the industrial sector with a focus on mid-single digit revenue growth and margin improvement. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance and management's commitment to growth.

What's priced into FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation compared to peers, with a slight premium. There is a low expectations gap, indicating that investors are not overly optimistic or pessimistic about future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve its revenue growth and margin targets, with recent results showing strong performance. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for sector headwinds impacting overall performance.

What FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GWW, FAST, and WCC. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide positive momentum for FERG. Conversely, any misses or lower guidance from these peers could negatively impact FERG's outlook.