FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC (FERG)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-09
$223.22-1.36%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Recent financial performance slipped notably this past month, though still top-half.
Ferguson keeps profit margins near 9.4% to 9.8%. Capital spending rises to $350-$400 million to support growth. Analysts expect about 9% revenue growth next year. The company has beaten earnings estimates in recent quarters.
The recent 16% stock drop shows market worries. Revenue growth is uncertain with no clear guidance. Rising capital spending may pressure cash flow. Profit margins could fall below targets if costs rise.
The price is about 15% above our fair value near $195. Analysts expect 8.8% revenue growth, which is priced in. Our fair value is 31% below the Street median, reflecting a more cautious view.
Breaks if: Capex falls below $350M or exceeds $400M in FY26
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 9.4% in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 4% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a stable investment with a focus on achieving mid-single digit revenue growth and maintaining operating margins. The current thesis is cautious, reflecting recent strong financial performance but also the challenges posed by the broader industrial sector.
The market currently reflects a neutral valuation, suggesting that expectations are modest. FERG is seen as cheap compared to its peers, with a low expectations gap indicating that not much growth is anticipated in the near term.
Management is on track to meet its revenue and margin targets, which could support continued stability. However, there is a moderate risk of missing these targets, given the company's recent history of misses.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GWW, FAST, and WCC. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable environment for FERG, but any downturn could negatively impact its momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum fell by 31.3 points (from 67.6 to 36.3).
Signal changed from 'favorable' to 'mild_favorable'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a more positive outlook for Ferguson plc. There are no new threats identified that could weaken this view.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Overall, FERG's outlook is mixed, with strong recent results but potential risks from the sector. Not investment advice.