Reading URI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track URI free→Reading URI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track URI free→NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is robust, meaning cash supports profits. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 44% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This means it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1069.66. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1,084 URI trades at 26× p/e, below its 28× p/e peer median. Our $741 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $715–$1,275. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 46% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 20%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.11x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $11.57. 8 raised, 8 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 73% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.9% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$114.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$294.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,004.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong rental revenue growth shows high demand and good operations during the busy season.
Confirms:Q2 rental revenue growth exceeds 8.7% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 rental revenue growth is below 8.7% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for URI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 22, 2026, United Rentals, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is being furnished with this report as Exhibit 99.1.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$715.00 – $1275.00 (median $1110.00) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-06-10
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Trading Companies & Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
URI United Rentals | — | expensive | moderate |
FAST Fastenal | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FERG FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | full | moderate |
SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | — | inexpensive | low |
WCC WESCO International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | fair | moderate |
16 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
United Rentals aims to increase its full-year revenue guidance, reflecting confidence in growth opportunities.
United Rentals is focused on maintaining strong free cash flow to support shareholder value.
United Rentals plans to increase capital expenditures to support growth and operational efficiency.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is important for spending and paying shareholders.
Confirms:Free cash flow reported above $2.15 billion.
Disproves:Free cash flow reported below $2.15 billion.
Why it matters: Higher capital spending shows growth investments. This can lead to more revenue in the future.
Confirms:Capital spending is above $4.4 billion for the year.
Disproves:Capital spending is below $4.4 billion for the year.
Why it matters: Higher capital spending shows growth investments. It shows confidence in future demand.
Confirms:Q2 capital spending goes over $150 million. This shows a focus on growth.
Disproves:Q2 capital spending drops below $100 million. This suggests less growth investment.
Why it matters: An increase in guidance shows confidence in future demand and business growth.
Confirms:Management raises revenue guidance for the year to over $17.4 billion.
Disproves:Management keeps or lowers revenue guidance for the year to under $16.9 billion.
Why it matters: A sector rebound could help URI's performance. This may change how investors feel.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth is above 6% compared to last year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth is below 4% compared to last year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 28, 2026, United Rentals, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its results of operations for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is being furnished with this report as Exhibit 99.1.
Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers. Effective February 4, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of United Rentals, Inc. (the "Company") approved increasing the size of the Board from ten (10) directors to eleven (11) directors and appointed Alexander R. Taussig as an independent director of the Company to fill the vacancy. As compensation for his service on the Board, Mr. Taussig will receive (i) annual retainer fees of…
Other Events. On January 28, 2026, the Company announced a new $5.0 billion share repurchase program that does not have an established expiration date. The Company plans to begin repurchases under the new program following the planned completion of its existing $2.0 billion share repurchase program in the first quarter of 2026. The Company intends to repurchase $1.5 billion of common stock in 2026, comprised of $350 million to complete its existing share repurchase program, and $1.15 billion…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On December 1, 2025, United Rentals (North America), Inc. (“URNA”) completed an offering of $1,500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 5.375% Senior Notes due 2033 (the “Notes”) in a private placement to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or outside the United States to certain persons in reliance on Regulation S under the S…