One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
How this is measured
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.
Living FV™
Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ
A valuation that evolves as the business changes.
A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.
Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Management context
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Free cash flow guidance remained strong and stable at $2.15B-$2.45B for 2026, with 2025 guidance ranging $2.0B-$2.6B. Actual free cash flow was $1.149B for first half 2026 and $1.198B for first nine months 2025, showing consistent cash generation. Management is delivering on this priority with steady cash flow.
Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Consistent earnings beats and stable guidance
A supporting condition in United Rentals's published investment case. The stated target is EPS meets or beats consensus in next 4 quarters.
Intact
Two or more consecutive quarters of EPS misses or guidance cuts
Direct metric needs a verified mapping
The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding.
Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Management context
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $15.6B-$16.1B in early 2025 to $17.5B-$17.8B in mid-2026. Actual quarterly revenues rose from $3.719B in 2025-Q1 to $4.410B in 2026-Q2. Management is delivering on this priority with consistent upward revisions and record revenues.
Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
Incoming Evidence
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
Expectations trend
Same fiscal period
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
FY2027 EPS$57.48
$55.96 → $57.48 · observed estimates
FY2027 revenue$19.33B
$19.04B → $19.33B · observed estimates
Exact estimates & source dates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot
EPS
Revenue
EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24
$55.96
$19,037,195,346
15 / 16
2026-07-25
$55.96
$19,037,195,346
15 / 16
2026-07-26
$56.30
$19,207,561,870
21 / 20
2026-07-27
$56.31
$19,207,561,870
21 / 20
2026-07-28
$56.31
$19,207,561,870
21 / 20
2026-07-29
$56.44
$19,246,435,961
15 / 16
2026-07-30
$56.42
$19,261,088,790
21 / 20
2026-07-31
$56.44
$19,246,435,961
15 / 16
2026-08-01
$56.44
$19,246,435,961
15 / 16
2026-08-02
$56.42
$19,261,088,790
21 / 20
2026-08-03
$56.42
$19,261,088,790
21 / 20
2026-08-04
$56.44
$19,246,435,961
15 / 16
2026-08-05
$56.42
$19,261,088,790
21 / 20
2026-08-06
$56.44
$19,246,435,961
15 / 16
2026-08-08
$56.98
$19,261,088,790
21 / 20
2026-08-09
$56.44
$19,246,435,961
15 / 16
2026-08-10
$56.44
$19,246,435,961
15 / 16
2026-08-12
$56.44
$19,246,435,961
15 / 16
2026-08-13
$56.44
$19,246,435,961
15 / 16
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Price-target changes
30 days
○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale
BernsteinOct 14
$1215.00New observation · no comparable prior
Truist FinancialOct 5 · prior Jul 2
$1421.00 → $1395.00-1.8%
$0$781.55$1563.10
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
How this is measured
Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Outlook in Brief
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
What's improving
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Still unresolved / key risks
Capital expenditures of at least $2.95 billion in 2026Capital expenditures: $2.052B
Free cash flow of at least $2.15 billion in 2026Free cash flow: $-261M
Consistent earnings beats and stable guidanceDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Full-year revenue of at least $16.9 billion in 2026Revenue: $4.41B
Next proof point
Oct 21, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Risk observations as of Oct 15, 2026 · 277 daily observations. Historical moves are not forecasts.
Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks
United Rentals outlook in detail
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
What kind of bet this is
This investment is characterized as a durable compounder with a focus on consistent revenue growth and cash flow generation. The current thesis state is intact, supported by management's commitment to increasing revenue and capital expenditures.
What's priced into United Rentals
Valuation is aligned with peers, indicating that the market has priced in stable performance. There is a slight expectations gap, suggesting that the market does not anticipate significant changes in URI's fundamentals in the near term.
What the fundamentals likely do
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, given the robust earnings quality and management's track record of delivering on key priorities. However, there is a moderate risk due to the high-miss-rate nature of the industry.
What United Rentals hinges on
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SUNB, UHAL, and R. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for URI. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could impact URI's momentum.
Bottom line
Over the next 1 to 3 years, URI appears to be on a solid path, but it is essential to monitor sector performance closely. Not investment advice.
Source: QuarterlyIQ weekly Outlook · Week ending Oct 10, 2026 · Carried forward
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
2026-08-14
$56.44
$19,246,435,961
15 / 16
2026-08-15
$56.44
$19,246,435,961
15 / 16
2026-08-16
$56.44
$19,246,435,961
15 / 16
2026-08-17
$56.44
$19,246,435,961
15 / 16
2026-08-18
$56.44
$19,246,435,961
15 / 16
2026-08-19
$56.44
$19,246,435,961
15 / 16
2026-08-20
$57.18
$19,271,200,355
15 / 16
2026-08-21
$57.18
$19,271,200,355
15 / 16
2026-08-22
$57.18
$19,271,200,355
15 / 16
2026-08-23
$57.18
$19,271,200,355
15 / 16
2026-08-24
$57.18
$19,271,200,355
15 / 16
2026-08-25
$57.18
$19,271,200,355
15 / 16
2026-08-26
$57.18
$19,271,200,355
15 / 16
2026-08-27
$57.18
$19,271,200,355
15 / 16
2026-08-28
$57.18
$19,271,200,355
15 / 16
2026-08-29
$57.18
$19,271,200,355
15 / 16
2026-08-30
$57.18
$19,271,200,355
15 / 16
2026-08-31
$57.18
$19,271,200,355
15 / 16
2026-09-01
$57.18
$19,271,200,355
15 / 16
2026-09-02
$57.18
$19,271,193,624
15 / 16
2026-09-03
$57.18
$19,271,193,624
15 / 16
2026-09-04
$57.18
$19,271,193,624
15 / 16
2026-09-05
$57.18
$19,271,193,624
15 / 16
2026-09-06
$57.18
$19,271,193,624
15 / 16
2026-09-07
$57.18
$19,271,193,624
15 / 16
2026-09-08
$57.18
$19,271,193,624
15 / 16
2026-09-09
$57.18
$19,271,193,624
15 / 16
2026-09-10
$57.18
$19,271,193,624
15 / 16
2026-09-11
$57.29
$19,287,839,899
15 / 16
2026-09-12
$57.29
$19,287,839,899
15 / 16
2026-09-13
$57.29
$19,287,839,899
15 / 16
2026-09-14
$57.29
$19,287,839,899
15 / 16
2026-09-15
$57.29
$19,287,839,899
15 / 16
2026-09-16
$57.29
$19,287,839,899
15 / 16
2026-09-17
$57.29
$19,287,839,899
15 / 16
2026-09-18
$57.29
$19,287,839,899
15 / 16
2026-09-19
$57.29
$19,287,839,899
15 / 16
2026-09-20
$57.29
$19,287,839,899
15 / 15
2026-09-21
$57.29
$19,287,839,899
15 / 15
2026-09-22
$57.29
$19,287,839,899
15 / 15
2026-09-23
$57.29
$19,287,839,899
15 / 15
2026-09-24
$57.29
$19,287,839,899
15 / 15
2026-09-25
$57.31
$19,287,839,899
15 / 15
2026-09-26
$57.31
$19,287,839,899
15 / 15
2026-09-27
$57.31
$19,287,839,899
15 / 15
2026-09-28
$57.31
$19,287,839,899
15 / 15
2026-09-29
$57.31
$19,287,839,899
15 / 15
2026-09-30
$57.31
$19,287,839,899
15 / 15
2026-10-01
$57.31
$19,287,839,899
15 / 15
2026-10-02
$57.31
$19,287,713,815
15 / 15
2026-10-03
$57.31
$19,287,713,815
15 / 15
2026-10-04
$57.31
$19,287,713,815
15 / 15
2026-10-05
$57.33
$19,295,503,288
15 / 15
2026-10-06
$57.33
$19,295,503,288
15 / 15
2026-10-07
$57.33
$19,295,519,078
15 / 15
2026-10-08
$57.33
$19,295,519,078
15 / 15
2026-10-09
$57.38
$19,314,053,733
15 / 16
2026-10-10
$57.38
$19,314,053,733
15 / 16
2026-10-11
$57.38
$19,314,053,733
15 / 16
2026-10-12
$57.38
$19,314,053,733
15 / 16
2026-10-13
$57.42
$19,327,777,019
15 / 16
2026-10-14
$57.42
$19,327,777,019
15 / 16
2026-10-15
$57.48
$19,334,783,751
15 / 16
Date
Buy*
Hold
Sell*
2026-05-01
16
4
1
2026-06-01
17
5
2
2026-07-01
17
4
2
2026-08-01
17
4
1
2026-09-01
17
5
1
2026-10-01
16
5
1
*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.
