SiteOne Landscape Supply Inc (SITE)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$103.16-0.01%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge SiteOne Landscape Supply Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.06 → 4.92 EPS · FY ending Dec 28, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.11B
EPS	—	-0.134
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.89B
EPS	—	4.079
EBITDA	$425M–$455Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.06B
EPS	—	4.92

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA of $425M to $455M in fiscal 2026	SiteOne aims for adjusted EBITDA near $440 million in 2026.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $425 million in FY 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management consistently expects Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal year 2026 in the range of $425 million to $455 million. Adjusted EBITDA grew 5% year-over-year in 2026-Q2 to $237.2 million, with margin stable at 15.5%. The trajectory shows delivering progress toward the full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Effective management of capital and financial obligations	A supporting condition in SiteOne Landscape Supply Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain manageable debt and capital allocation discipline.	Intact	Material worsening of credit agreements or capital misuse	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 3 quarters. Management repurchased $20 million in 2026-Q1 and nearly $104 million in 2026-Q2, demonstrating active capital return. Net debt decreased from $584.5 million in 2026-Q1 to $555.6 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows delivering disciplined capital allocation and managing financial obligations. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Smooth executive transitions without disruption	Management is focused on handling debt and executive changes.	Intact	Executive changes cause operational or strategic setbacks	1 executive transition with clear successor Executive Vice President Scott Salmon retired with a clear successor in place, indicating smooth management transition without operational setbacks. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management announced the retirement of Executive Vice President Scott Salmon with a clear successor identified. No financial metrics directly relate to this priority, but the company emphasizes leadership continuity. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth of about 6.9% in next 12 months	Sales should grow about 6.9% next year.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below 6.9% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.92

$5.25 → $4.92 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.06B

$5.19B → $5.06B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.25	$5,189,078,914	6 / 9
2026-07-25	$5.25	$5,189,078,914	6 / 9
2026-07-26	$5.25	$5,189,078,914	6 / 9
2026-07-27	$5.25	$5,189,078,914	6 / 9
2026-07-28	$5.24	$5,183,254,081	6 / 9
2026-07-29	$5.24	$5,183,254,081	6 / 9
2026-07-30	$5.11	$5,117,544,966	6 / 9
2026-07-31	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-01	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-02	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-03	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-04	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-05	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-06	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-08	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-09	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-10	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-12	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-13	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-14	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-15	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-16	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-17	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-18	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-19	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-20	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-21	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-22	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-23	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-24	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-25	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-26	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-27	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-28	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-29	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-30	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-08-31	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-09-01	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-09-02	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-09-03	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-09-04	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-09-05	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-09-06	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-09-07	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-09-08	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-09-09	$5.06	$5,094,991,518	6 / 9
2026-09-10	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-09-11	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-09-12	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-09-13	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-09-14	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-09-15	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-09-16	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-09-17	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-09-18	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-09-19	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-09-20	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-09-21	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-09-22	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-09-23	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-09-24	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-09-25	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-09-26	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-09-27	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-09-28	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-09-29	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-09-30	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-10-01	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-10-02	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-10-03	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-10-04	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-10-05	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-10-06	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-10-07	$5.06	$5,094,989,328	6 / 9
2026-10-08	$4.96	$5,078,655,995	6 / 9
2026-10-09	$4.94	$5,071,072,662	6 / 9
2026-10-10	$4.94	$5,071,072,662	6 / 9
2026-10-11	$4.94	$5,071,072,662	6 / 9
2026-10-12	$4.94	$5,071,072,662	6 / 9
2026-10-13	$4.94	$5,066,632,352	6 / 9
2026-10-14	$4.94	$5,066,632,352	6 / 9
2026-10-15	$4.94	$5,066,632,352	6 / 9
2026-10-16	$4.94	$5,066,632,352	5 / 9
2026-10-17	$4.94	$5,066,632,352	5 / 9
2026-10-18	$4.94	$5,066,632,352	5 / 9
2026-10-19	$4.94	$5,066,632,352	5 / 9
2026-10-20	$4.94	$5,066,632,352	5 / 9
2026-10-21	$4.94	$5,065,399,518	5 / 9
2026-10-22	$4.92	$5,061,204,473	5 / 9
2026-10-23	$4.92	$5,061,204,473	5 / 9
2026-10-24	$4.92	$5,061,204,473	5 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	8	6
2026-06-01	8	4
2026-07-01	9	5
2026-08-01	8	5
2026-09-01	8	5
2026-10-01	8	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 12

$100.00New observation · no comparable prior

Deutsche BankOct 8 · prior Apr 30

$160.00 → $91.00-43.1%

RBC CapitalOct 7 · prior Jul 30

$135.00 → $124.00-8.1%

$0$88.00$176.00

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA of $425M to $455M in fiscal 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Effective management of capital and financial obligationsQualitative condition
Revenue growth of about 6.9% in next 12 monthsDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-47.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

SiteOne Landscape Supply Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SITE is an execution-sensitive industrial business, not a proven earnings compounder today, given its loss-making earnings-quality rating and elevated risk. The multi-year view is intact, but the signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.

What's priced into SiteOne Landscape Supply Inc

Valuation is marked cheap, while the valuation model shows SITE at about peer-level valuation and expectations broadly aligned with the evidence. The priced-in signal is justified, with low fragility, so the snapshot does not point to unusually fragile expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results face some risk: SITE missed its two most recent reported quarters, and the next guidance update is a key watch point. Management remains stable and is on track with its FY 2026 Adjusted EBITDA goal; second-quarter Adjusted EBITDA grew 5% year over year with a stable margin. Capital allocation is mixed, although net debt declined in the second quarter.

What SiteOne Landscape Supply Inc hinges on

The next call matters: a guidance cut would weaken the execution case, while progress toward the full-year goal would support it. Over the near term, results and guidance from industrial bellwethers GWW, FAST, and FERG may signal whether the sector backdrop improves or worsens.