QXO Inc (QXO)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$10.51-4.63%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge QXO Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-16.8% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.65 → 0.54 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	4.24B
EPS	—	0.068
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	14.04B
EPS	—	0.236
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	18.57B
EPS	—	0.54

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage debt and capital allocation post $3B senior notes issuance	The company is improving capital allocation with new senior notes.	Intact	Debt levels become unsustainable or capital allocation harms growth	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow near $4.6 billion by 2030	Free cash flow is expected near $4.6 billion by 2030.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $4.2B by 2030	Free cash flow: $-248.1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: FCF >= $4.6B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 14, 2026-248,100,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve $50 billion annual revenue in a decade	QXO aims to grow revenue to $50 billion in a decade.	Intact	annual revenue fails to exceed $9.5B by 2030	Revenue: $3.246B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $50B annual revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 14, 20263,246,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4c9b7445-a044-4c1a-974d-c23bdb741817. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete and integrate TopBuild acquisition	The recent TopBuild acquisition supports this growth.	Intact	failure to integrate TopBuild or material setbacks reported	Acquisition completed 2026-07-01; Q2 revenue beat News confirms TopBuild deal closed July 2026 and Q2 revenue beat estimates, supporting successful integration. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.54

$0.72 → $0.54 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$18.57B

$19.36B → $18.57B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.72	$19,362,354,618	6 / 7
2026-07-25	$0.72	$19,362,354,618	6 / 7
2026-07-26	$0.72	$19,362,354,618	6 / 7
2026-07-27	$0.73	$19,319,597,644	6 / 7
2026-07-28	$0.73	$19,319,597,644	6 / 7
2026-07-29	$0.73	$19,319,597,644	6 / 7
2026-07-30	$0.74	$19,375,568,900	14 / 14
2026-07-31	$0.73	$19,319,597,644	6 / 7
2026-08-01	$0.73	$19,319,597,644	6 / 7
2026-08-02	$0.72	$19,310,810,291	6 / 7
2026-08-03	$0.72	$19,310,810,291	6 / 7
2026-08-04	$0.72	$19,310,810,291	6 / 7
2026-08-05	$0.72	$19,310,810,291	6 / 7
2026-08-06	$0.72	$19,310,810,291	6 / 7
2026-08-07	$0.71	$19,324,643,530	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$0.71	$19,324,643,530	6 / 7
2026-08-09	$0.71	$19,386,929,330	16 / 15
2026-08-10	$0.71	$19,386,929,330	16 / 15
2026-08-12	$0.71	$19,324,643,530	6 / 7
2026-08-13	$0.71	$19,324,643,530	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$0.71	$19,324,643,530	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$0.71	$19,324,643,530	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$0.71	$19,324,643,530	6 / 8
2026-08-17	$0.71	$19,324,643,530	6 / 8
2026-08-18	$0.71	$19,324,643,530	7 / 8
2026-08-19	$0.71	$19,324,643,530	7 / 8
2026-08-20	$0.65	$19,197,476,207	9 / 12
2026-08-21	$0.65	$19,197,476,207	9 / 12
2026-08-22	$0.65	$19,197,476,207	9 / 12
2026-08-23	$0.65	$19,197,476,207	9 / 12
2026-08-24	$0.65	$19,197,476,207	9 / 12
2026-08-25	$0.65	$19,197,476,207	9 / 12
2026-08-26	$0.65	$19,238,283,084	9 / 13
2026-08-27	$0.65	$19,238,283,084	9 / 13
2026-08-28	$0.65	$19,238,283,084	9 / 13
2026-08-29	$0.65	$19,238,283,084	9 / 13
2026-08-30	$0.65	$19,238,283,084	9 / 13
2026-08-31	$0.65	$19,238,283,084	9 / 13
2026-09-01	$0.65	$19,238,283,084	9 / 13
2026-09-02	$0.65	$19,238,283,084	9 / 13
2026-09-03	$0.65	$19,238,283,084	9 / 13
2026-09-04	$0.65	$19,238,283,084	9 / 13
2026-09-05	$0.65	$19,238,283,084	9 / 13
2026-09-06	$0.65	$19,238,283,084	9 / 13
2026-09-07	$0.65	$19,238,283,084	9 / 13
2026-09-08	$0.65	$19,238,283,084	9 / 13
2026-09-09	$0.65	$19,238,283,084	9 / 13
2026-09-10	$0.65	$19,238,283,084	9 / 13
2026-09-11	$0.65	$19,233,088,195	9 / 13
2026-09-12	$0.65	$19,232,754,862	9 / 13
2026-09-13	$0.65	$19,232,143,750	9 / 13
2026-09-14	$0.65	$19,232,143,750	9 / 13
2026-09-15	$0.65	$19,232,143,750	9 / 13
2026-09-16	$0.65	$19,232,143,750	9 / 13
2026-09-17	$0.65	$19,232,143,750	9 / 13
2026-09-18	$0.65	$19,232,143,750	9 / 13
2026-09-19	$0.65	$19,232,143,750	9 / 13
2026-09-20	$0.65	$19,232,143,750	9 / 13
2026-09-21	$0.65	$19,232,143,750	9 / 13
2026-09-22	$0.65	$19,232,143,750	9 / 13
2026-09-23	$0.65	$19,232,143,750	9 / 13
2026-09-24	$0.65	$19,232,143,750	9 / 13
2026-09-25	$0.65	$19,232,143,750	9 / 13
2026-09-26	$0.65	$19,214,643,750	9 / 13
2026-09-27	$0.65	$19,214,643,750	9 / 13
2026-09-28	$0.65	$19,214,643,750	9 / 13
2026-09-29	$0.65	$19,214,643,750	9 / 13
2026-09-30	$0.65	$19,214,643,750	9 / 13
2026-10-01	$0.65	$19,214,643,750	9 / 13
2026-10-02	$0.65	$19,214,643,750	9 / 13
2026-10-03	$0.65	$19,214,643,750	9 / 13
2026-10-04	$0.65	$19,214,643,750	9 / 13
2026-10-05	$0.65	$19,214,643,750	9 / 13
2026-10-06	$0.65	$19,214,643,750	9 / 13
2026-10-07	$0.65	$19,214,643,750	9 / 13
2026-10-08	$0.64	$19,132,257,237	9 / 13
2026-10-09	$0.61	$18,948,188,816	10 / 14
2026-10-10	$0.60	$18,870,778,290	10 / 14
2026-10-11	$0.59	$18,814,883,553	10 / 14
2026-10-12	$0.59	$18,814,883,553	10 / 14
2026-10-13	$0.59	$18,814,883,553	10 / 14
2026-10-14	$0.58	$18,792,094,079	10 / 13
2026-10-15	$0.56	$18,750,041,448	10 / 13
2026-10-16	$0.56	$18,748,014,017	10 / 13
2026-10-17	$0.56	$18,748,014,017	10 / 13
2026-10-18	$0.56	$18,746,908,754	10 / 13
2026-10-19	$0.56	$18,746,908,754	10 / 13
2026-10-20	$0.54	$18,633,225,614	9 / 13
2026-10-21	$0.54	$18,565,094,035	10 / 13
2026-10-22	$0.54	$18,565,094,035	10 / 13
2026-10-23	$0.54	$18,565,094,035	10 / 13
2026-10-24	$0.54	$18,565,094,035	10 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	14	0	0
2026-06-01	13	0	0
2026-07-01	16	0	0
2026-08-01	18	0	0
2026-09-01	18	0	0
2026-10-01	19	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 16 · prior Oct 13

$16.00 → $15.00-6.3%

D.A. DavidsonOct 9 · prior Aug 24

$26.00 → $20.00-23.1%

Truist FinancialOct 8

$15.00New observation · no comparable prior

RBC CapitalOct 7

$18.00New observation · no comparable prior

Melius ResearchOct 6

$17.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$14.30$28.60

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage debt and capital allocation post $3B senior notes issuanceQualitative condition
Free cash flow near $4.6 billion by 2030Free cash flow: $-248.1M
Achieve $50 billion annual revenue in a decadeRevenue: $3.246B

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-62.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

QXO Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk, acquisition-led growth story rather than an established durable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: momentum improved and the signal moved from cautious to mixed, but recent performance remains weak versus its industry cohort.

What's priced into QXO Inc

QXO is valued at a substantial premium to peers, and the evidence points to a re-rating as the main driver of valuation differences. The expectations gap is negative, though model confidence is low; the snapshot labels what is priced in as justified and finds low fragility, so it does not show a clear sign that expectations are unusually fragile.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results remain a concern: QXO missed its most recent quarter and is on a run of consecutive misses, despite the latest event being described as earnings in line. Revenue rose between the first and second quarters of 2026, partly due to acquisitions, while adjusted EBITDA improved; integration and technology work are ongoing, with limited specific proof of operational gains so far. Management says the TopBuild acquisition closed as planned, but integration is mixed, and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What QXO Inc hinges on

Over the multi-year view, a key test is whether QXO can integrate TopBuild and turn its larger scale, technology work, and acquisition-led revenue growth into sustained operating improvement. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; results and outlook from GWW, FAST, and FERG are also important signals for whether the industrial-sector backdrop improves or weakens.