Herc Holdings, Inc. (HRI)

Q: What's priced into Herc Holdings, Inc. (HRI) stock?

The valuation evidence points to HRI being cheap versus peers, while the priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is negative, but the snapshot does not explain its scale or what specific assumptions the market has made.

Q: What does the Herc Holdings, Inc. (HRI) outlook hinge on?

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining the raised 2026 guidance and continuing to deliver integration benefits. A guidance reversal would damage credibility, while results and guidance from sector peers URI, SUNB, and R may signal whether the industry backdrop is improving or weakening.

NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$128.11-4.07%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Herc Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.98 → 10.97 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.26B
EPS	—	2.449
FY 2026 · Annual
Equipment rental revenue	$4.38B–$4.48B	—
Revenue	—	4.95B
EPS	—	7.099
EBITDA	$2.05B–$2.13Bnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.36B
EPS	—	10.969

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditures up to $800 million in 2026	The company plans capital spending up to $800 million to support growth.	Broken	Capex falls below $500 million in 2026	Capital expenditures: $41M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: <= $800M capex. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 202641,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Earnings per share trend and estimate revisions	A supporting condition in Herc Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS at or above $6.21 in FY26.	Intact	EPS falls below $6.21 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full year 2026 revenue near $4.4 billion	Herc Holdings aims for revenue near $4.4 billion in 2026.	Intact	Annual revenue falls below $4.275 billion in 2026	Revenue: $1.204B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$4.4B total revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 20261,204,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 500f0193-a797-476a-b64d-b060cb1fe457. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.97

$9.85 → $10.97 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.36B

$5.11B → $5.36B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.85	$5,110,445,620	12 / 11
2026-07-25	$9.52	$5,085,018,651	8 / 8
2026-07-26	$9.85	$5,110,445,620	12 / 11
2026-07-27	$9.52	$5,085,018,651	8 / 8
2026-07-28	$9.85	$5,110,445,620	12 / 11
2026-07-29	$9.85	$5,110,445,620	12 / 11
2026-07-30	$9.85	$5,110,445,620	12 / 11
2026-07-31	$9.85	$5,110,445,620	12 / 11
2026-08-01	$10.18	$5,282,267,836	7 / 8
2026-08-02	$10.18	$5,282,267,836	7 / 8
2026-08-03	$10.11	$5,297,284,320	11 / 11
2026-08-04	$10.11	$5,297,284,320	11 / 11
2026-08-05	$10.11	$5,297,284,320	11 / 11
2026-08-06	$10.11	$5,297,284,320	11 / 11
2026-08-07	$10.18	$5,282,267,836	7 / 8
2026-08-08	$10.11	$5,297,320,040	11 / 11
2026-08-09	$10.11	$5,297,320,040	11 / 11
2026-08-10	$10.18	$5,282,267,836	7 / 8
2026-08-12	$10.18	$5,282,267,836	7 / 8
2026-08-13	$10.18	$5,282,267,836	7 / 8
2026-08-14	$10.18	$5,282,267,836	7 / 8
2026-08-15	$10.18	$5,282,267,836	7 / 8
2026-08-16	$10.18	$5,282,267,836	7 / 8
2026-08-17	$10.18	$5,282,267,836	7 / 8
2026-08-18	$10.18	$5,282,267,836	7 / 8
2026-08-19	$10.18	$5,282,267,836	7 / 8
2026-08-20	$10.65	$5,347,987,399	7 / 8
2026-08-21	$10.65	$5,347,987,399	7 / 8
2026-08-22	$10.65	$5,347,987,399	7 / 8
2026-08-23	$10.65	$5,347,987,399	7 / 8
2026-08-24	$10.65	$5,347,987,399	7 / 8
2026-08-25	$10.65	$5,347,987,399	7 / 8
2026-08-26	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-08-27	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-08-28	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-08-29	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-08-30	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-08-31	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-09-01	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-09-02	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-09-03	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-09-04	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-09-05	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-09-06	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-09-07	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-09-08	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-09-09	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-09-10	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-09-11	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-12	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-13	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-14	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-15	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-16	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-17	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-18	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-19	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-20	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-21	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-22	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-23	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-24	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-25	$11.00	$5,349,790,223	7 / 8
2026-09-26	$11.00	$5,349,790,223	7 / 8
2026-09-27	$11.00	$5,349,790,223	7 / 8
2026-09-28	$11.00	$5,349,790,223	7 / 8
2026-09-29	$11.00	$5,349,790,223	7 / 8
2026-09-30	$11.00	$5,349,790,223	7 / 8
2026-10-01	$11.00	$5,349,790,223	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$11.00	$5,349,790,223	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$11.00	$5,349,790,223	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$11.00	$5,349,790,223	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$11.00	$5,349,790,223	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$10.99	$5,350,880,223	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$11.00	$5,352,410,223	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$11.00	$5,352,410,223	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$11.00	$5,352,410,221	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$11.00	$5,352,410,221	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$11.00	$5,352,410,221	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$11.00	$5,352,410,221	7 / 8
2026-10-13	$11.00	$5,352,410,221	7 / 8
2026-10-14	$10.96	$5,357,357,921	7 / 8
2026-10-15	$10.96	$5,357,357,921	7 / 8
2026-10-16	$10.96	$5,357,357,921	7 / 8
2026-10-17	$10.96	$5,357,357,921	7 / 8
2026-10-18	$10.97	$5,357,357,921	7 / 8
2026-10-19	$10.97	$5,357,357,921	7 / 8
2026-10-20	$10.97	$5,357,357,921	7 / 8
2026-10-21	$10.97	$5,357,357,921	7 / 8
2026-10-22	$10.97	$5,357,357,921	7 / 8
2026-10-23	$10.97	$5,357,357,921	7 / 8
2026-10-24	$10.97	$5,357,357,921	7 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	2	1
2026-06-01	7	3	1
2026-07-01	7	3	1
2026-08-01	7	3	1
2026-09-01	8	3	1
2026-10-01	9	2	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 8 · prior Aug 17

$218.00 → $176.00-19.3%

$0$119.90$239.80

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditures up to $800 million in 2026Published status: Broken
Earnings per share trend and estimate revisionsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Full year 2026 revenue near $4.4 billionRevenue: $1.204B

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-49.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Herc Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

HRI is an acquisition-led equipment rental growth story, with a cyclical sector backdrop. The thesis is mixed and in a watch state: integration is on track, while recent financial performance has lagged its industry cohort.

What's priced into Herc Holdings, Inc.

The valuation evidence points to HRI being cheap versus peers, while the priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is negative, but the snapshot does not explain its scale or what specific assumptions the market has made.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, guidance has been raised and management says H&E integration synergies are tracking to plan; fleet size has also expanded. The business remains exposed to a high-risk, headwind sector, and recent performance has been below its industry cohort. Debt and leverage remain elevated, though net debt edged lower in Q2.

What Herc Holdings, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining the raised 2026 guidance and continuing to deliver integration benefits. A guidance reversal would damage credibility, while results and guidance from sector peers URI, SUNB, and R may signal whether the industry backdrop is improving or weakening.

Bottom line

For the 1-to-3-year view, HRI has visible execution progress but also meaningful sector, leverage, and performance risks. The thesis remains mixed, with follow-through on guidance and integration central to the case. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.26B
EPS	—	2.449
FY 2026 · Annual
Equipment rental revenue	$4.38B–$4.48B	—
Revenue	—	4.95B
EPS	—	7.099
EBITDA	$2.05B–$2.13Bnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.36B
EPS	—	10.969

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.97

$9.85 → $10.97 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.36B

$5.11B → $5.36B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.85	$5,110,445,620	12 / 11
2026-07-25	$9.52	$5,085,018,651	8 / 8
2026-07-26	$9.85	$5,110,445,620	12 / 11
2026-07-27	$9.52	$5,085,018,651	8 / 8
2026-07-28	$9.85	$5,110,445,620	12 / 11
2026-07-29	$9.85	$5,110,445,620	12 / 11
2026-07-30	$9.85	$5,110,445,620	12 / 11
2026-07-31	$9.85	$5,110,445,620	12 / 11
2026-08-01	$10.18	$5,282,267,836	7 / 8
2026-08-02	$10.18	$5,282,267,836	7 / 8
2026-08-03	$10.11	$5,297,284,320	11 / 11
2026-08-04	$10.11	$5,297,284,320	11 / 11
2026-08-05	$10.11	$5,297,284,320	11 / 11
2026-08-06	$10.11	$5,297,284,320	11 / 11
2026-08-07	$10.18	$5,282,267,836	7 / 8
2026-08-08	$10.11	$5,297,320,040	11 / 11
2026-08-09	$10.11	$5,297,320,040	11 / 11
2026-08-10	$10.18	$5,282,267,836	7 / 8
2026-08-12	$10.18	$5,282,267,836	7 / 8
2026-08-13	$10.18	$5,282,267,836	7 / 8
2026-08-14	$10.18	$5,282,267,836	7 / 8
2026-08-15	$10.18	$5,282,267,836	7 / 8
2026-08-16	$10.18	$5,282,267,836	7 / 8
2026-08-17	$10.18	$5,282,267,836	7 / 8
2026-08-18	$10.18	$5,282,267,836	7 / 8
2026-08-19	$10.18	$5,282,267,836	7 / 8
2026-08-20	$10.65	$5,347,987,399	7 / 8
2026-08-21	$10.65	$5,347,987,399	7 / 8
2026-08-22	$10.65	$5,347,987,399	7 / 8
2026-08-23	$10.65	$5,347,987,399	7 / 8
2026-08-24	$10.65	$5,347,987,399	7 / 8
2026-08-25	$10.65	$5,347,987,399	7 / 8
2026-08-26	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-08-27	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-08-28	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-08-29	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-08-30	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-08-31	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-09-01	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-09-02	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-09-03	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-09-04	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-09-05	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-09-06	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-09-07	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-09-08	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-09-09	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-09-10	$10.65	$5,347,972,955	7 / 8
2026-09-11	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-12	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-13	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-14	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-15	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-16	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-17	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-18	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-19	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-20	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-21	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-22	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-23	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-24	$10.98	$5,341,429,291	7 / 8
2026-09-25	$11.00	$5,349,790,223	7 / 8
2026-09-26	$11.00	$5,349,790,223	7 / 8
2026-09-27	$11.00	$5,349,790,223	7 / 8
2026-09-28	$11.00	$5,349,790,223	7 / 8
2026-09-29	$11.00	$5,349,790,223	7 / 8
2026-09-30	$11.00	$5,349,790,223	7 / 8
2026-10-01	$11.00	$5,349,790,223	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$11.00	$5,349,790,223	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$11.00	$5,349,790,223	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$11.00	$5,349,790,223	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$11.00	$5,349,790,223	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$10.99	$5,350,880,223	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$11.00	$5,352,410,223	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$11.00	$5,352,410,223	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$11.00	$5,352,410,221	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$11.00	$5,352,410,221	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$11.00	$5,352,410,221	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$11.00	$5,352,410,221	7 / 8
2026-10-13	$11.00	$5,352,410,221	7 / 8
2026-10-14	$10.96	$5,357,357,921	7 / 8
2026-10-15	$10.96	$5,357,357,921	7 / 8
2026-10-16	$10.96	$5,357,357,921	7 / 8
2026-10-17	$10.96	$5,357,357,921	7 / 8
2026-10-18	$10.97	$5,357,357,921	7 / 8
2026-10-19	$10.97	$5,357,357,921	7 / 8
2026-10-20	$10.97	$5,357,357,921	7 / 8
2026-10-21	$10.97	$5,357,357,921	7 / 8
2026-10-22	$10.97	$5,357,357,921	7 / 8
2026-10-23	$10.97	$5,357,357,921	7 / 8
2026-10-24	$10.97	$5,357,357,921	7 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings