Reading WLFC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WLFC free→Reading WLFC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WLFC free→NASDAQIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with the company trading below typical for sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 27% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $193.50. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $191 WLFC trades at 13× p/e, below its 28× p/e peer median. Our $269 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 29% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 27%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.45x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.26 → $2.70 (-17.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$173.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$397.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,184.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'inexpensive'.
Valuation changed. It rose from "fair" to "inexpensive." Risk fell. The sector backdrop remained a headwind. Management was volatile.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector sees revenue growth pick up, it could benefit Willis Lease. This would signal a stronger market environment.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WLFC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry Into or Amendment of a Material Definitive Agreement. Convertible Notes Underwriting Agreement On May 13, 2026, Willis Lease Finance Corporation (the “ Company ”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “ Convertible Notes Underwriting Agreement ”) with Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, BofA Securities, Inc. and Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., in connection with the issuance and sale of $200,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 2.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031 (the “ No…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Trading Companies & Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WLFC Willis Lease Finance Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 17 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
URI United Rentals | — | expensive | moderate |
FAST Fastenal | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FERG FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | full | moderate |
SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | — | inexpensive | low |
31 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Initiate a share buyback program as part of capital allocation strategy.
Continue to pay a quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share to shareholders.
Collaborate with CFM International to extend the operational life of CFM56-5B and CFM56-7B engines.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Willis Lease Finance Corporation (the “Company”) issued a news release setting forth the Company’s results from operations for the three months ended March 31, 2026 and financial condition as of March 31, 2026. A copy of the news release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information and exhibit furnished under this
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement. The disclosure set forth in
Other Events. On April 29, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors declared the Company’s quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share of common stock outstanding. The dividend is expected to be paid on May 22, 2026, to stockholders of record at the close of business on May 11, 2026. A copy of the news release announcing the quarterly dividend is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 27, 2026, Willis Lease Finance Corporation, a Delaware corporation (“Willis” or the “Company”), entered into an amendment (the “Amendment No. 3”), to the Company’s existing Credit Agreement, dated as of October 31, 2024 (the “Existing Credit Agreement,” as amended by that certain Amendment No. 1 to Credit Agreement, dated as of May 7, 2025 and Amendment No. 2 to Credit Agreement, dated as of February 19, 2026, the “Amended Credit Agreement)…