Reading VTSI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is high, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind, suggesting favorable conditions in the industry. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.40. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.43 VTSI trades at 2× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $3.24 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 6% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -30%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted -19.64x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.11 → $-0.11 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$201.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$466.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,603.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data affects how much people spend. This can change VirTra's sales outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase by more than 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease by more than 1% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VTSI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 11, 2026, VirTra, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in the website is not a part of this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VTSI VirTra Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | full | high |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing sales momentum as the company progresses through the second half of 2026.
Position the company to convert opportunities into growth in upcoming quarters.
Manage the timing of revenue conversion dependent on external funding and customer processes.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below median, it may indicate a slowdown in the sector.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported below the median for the sector.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median, showing resilience.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 26, 2026, VirTra, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in the website is not a part of this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Effective February 16, 2026, Jeffrey D. Brown resigned as a director of VirTra, Inc. Mr. Brown had served as the chair of the Audit Committee, and was a member of the Compensation and Nominating and Corporate Governance Committees. Mr. Brown, who had served as a director since 2011, cited personal reasons for stepping down from the Board. There wer…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 10, 2025, VirTra, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2025. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in the website is not a part of this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deem…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 11, 2025, VirTra, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter and six months ended June 30, 2025. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in the website is not a part of this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to b…