Reading VRNS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VRNS free→Reading VRNS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VRNS free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 23% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $33.89. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $34 VRNS trades at 6× p/s — 1.3× the 5× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $27 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $33–$37. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 26% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.03x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.01 → $0.01 (-4.3% / 30d). 5 raised, 6 cut, 22 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 68% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 200.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$171.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$427.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,811.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth slows, it could hurt Varonis' performance. This signals a weakening market.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median for the last year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VRNS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) On June 1, 2026, the stockholders of the Company also approved an increase in the number of shares of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.001 per share (“Common Stock”), available for issuance under the Amended and Restated Varonis Systems, Inc. 2023 Omnibus Equity Incentive Plan (the “2023 Plan”). The material terms of the 2023 Plan, as a…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$33.00 – $37.00 (median $36.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-04-29
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Systems Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VRNS Varonis Systems, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | full | elevated |
MSFT Microsoft | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | full | moderate |
PANW Palo Alto Networks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRWD CrowdStrike | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FTNT Fortinet | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing SaaS ARR to between $814 million and $845 million by year-end 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Company expects SaaS ARR of $814.0 million to $845.0 million for 2026, reflecting a growth target of 27% to 32%. This represents an increase from the previous year's ARR guidance of $748.0 million to $754.0 million. The trajectory indicates a strong focus on achieving significant ARR growth.
“SaaS ARR of $814.0 million to $845.0 million, or year-over-year growth of 27% to 32%.”
“ARR of $748.0 million to $754.0 million, or year-over-year growth of 17%.”
Target revenue of $731 million to $737 million for fiscal year 2026, indicating a 17% to 18% growth.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Company expects revenue of $731.0 million to $737.0 million for 2026, indicating a growth target of 17% to 18%. This is an increase from the previous guidance of $722.0 million to $730.0 million. The trajectory shows a consistent focus on achieving revenue growth.
Maintain focus on generating free cash flow between $100 million and $105 million for 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Company expects free cash flow of $100.0 million to $105.0 million for 2026, maintaining the same target as previously stated. This indicates a stable focus on cash flow generation, with no change in the target range.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can improve its loss-making status. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows less loss. It may also show profits again.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows more losses. It may also show a worse financial outlook.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, Varonis Systems, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Report, including the press release, is furnished only, is not "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 3, 2026, Varonis Systems, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full-year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Report, including the press release, is furnished only, is not "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 28, 2025, Varonis Systems, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Report, including the press release, is furnished only, is not "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amend…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 29, 2025, Varonis Systems, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Report, including the press release, is furnished only, is not "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or…
“Revenues of $731.0 million to $737.0 million, or year-over-year growth of 17% to 18%.”
“Revenues of $722.0 million to $730.0 million, or year-over-year growth of 16% to 17%.”
“Free cash flow of $100.0 million to $105.0 million.”
“Free cash flow of $100.0 million to $105.0 million.”