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COREWEAVE, INC. (CRWV)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$117.03+9.67%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and it is priced below typical for sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include the potential for a favorable shift if the Fed starts cutting rates and the performance of sector bellwethers like MSFT, ORCL, and PLTR. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Software - Infrastructure
- Market cap
- $54.86B
- Employees
- 2,189
- IPO date
- 2025-03-03
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $117.03. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$222.00consensus
Range $164.58 – $279.42
vs price: -47% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-year—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $107 CRWV trades at 4× p/s, below its 5× p/s peer median. Our $229 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $67–$192. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
4.4x
peer 4.9x · own history —
Premium
0.9x peer
Growth the price needs
-53%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$229.10
range $173.19 – $285.01
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivefair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 53% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
26th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -3.75x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish16 analysts, 64% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-1.27 → $-1.25 (+1.7% / 30d). 2 raised, 9 cut, 16 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 2 maintained. 64% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 26.3% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weakProvisional
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$389.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$870.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,484.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'cautious' to 'mixed'.
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'inexpensive'.
Valuation changed. It rose to a label of "full." Risk remained high. The sector backdrop showed a tailwind. Recent financial performance was weak.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for sector revenue growth dropping below median
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the technology sector, impacting CRWV.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The next quarterly updates show sector revenue growth below its median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median in the next quarterly updates.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CRWV yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for CRWV and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like MSFT, ORCL, and PLTR keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting CRWV and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MSFT, ORCL, and PLTR start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping CRWV and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits CRWV and other Tech names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
- If CRWV misses again next quarter like this past one (a big miss of -54% on the 2026-03-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-116d agoItem 7.01
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company under the Securities Act or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filings, unless expressly incorporated by specifi…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.8 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.