Toast Inc (TOST)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-29
$31.68+0.57%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put TOST beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Systems Software: fringe margins under pressure (2q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 23% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 43% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskToast’s cash-backed profits and strong performance support owning its growth, though competition and regulation threaten it. Revenue grew 23% year over year in Q2 FY2026, when GAAP earnings beat consensus. It trades at 29× P/E versus a 46× peer median. The price reflects more modest growth than our view expects. DoorDash AI pressure on market share and FTC litigation over contracts could challenge the thesis. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 22%. Peer multiples imply a price about 23% above where it trades; our read remains intact. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. TOST is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 31 analysts currently covering TOST (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 14 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for TOST in the last 4 months.
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Compare TOST with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOST Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Systems Software — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put TOST next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
FTC litigation could constrain contract practices, raising regulatory and potential financial risks.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $31.68
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $31.68.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Potential pressure from DoorDash's AI could impact market share.
Advances: Increase Adjusted EBITDA guidance
Raised outlook supports increased Adjusted EBITDA guidance.
Threatens: Expand share repurchase program and execute buybacks
CEO selling shares raises concerns about confidence in the company.
Advances: Enhance subscription services and financial technology gross profit
Partnership enhances subscription services and financial technology gross profit.
Advances: Increase Adjusted EBITDA guidance
Growth plans align with increasing Adjusted EBITDA guidance.