Reading TOST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TOST free→Reading TOST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TOST free→NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady, indicating a stable environment. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind, helping TOST compared with sector peers, which are above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like MSFT and ORCL. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $25.08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $25 TOST trades at 25× p/e, below its 28× p/e peer median. Our $28 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $28–$45. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 12% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 27%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.73x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.31 → $0.32 (+0.8% / 30d). 2 raised, 5 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 63% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 31.7% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$192.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$501.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,471.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Unemployment claims data will show labor market health. A rise may signal economic weakness affecting Toast Inc.
Confirms:Weekly claims drop below 200,000.
Disproves:Weekly claims rise above 300,000.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TOST yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Toast, Inc. announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, a…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$28.00 – $45.00 (median $35.00) · 13 analysts · as of 2026-06-10
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Systems Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TOST Toast Inc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | fair | elevated |
MSFT Microsoft | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PANW Palo Alto Networks | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 25 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRWD CrowdStrike | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FTNT Fortinet | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Toast has increased its Adjusted EBITDA guidance for the fiscal year 2026.
Toast aims to grow gross profit from subscription services and financial technology solutions.
Toast's board approved a $500 million increase to the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Retail sales data will indicate consumer spending trends, which affect Toast Inc's business. Strong sales may boost confidence.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase by more than 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease by more than 0.5% month over month.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 12, 2026, Toast, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18…
Other Events On February 10, 2026, the Company’s board of directors (the “Board”) approved an increase of $500 million to the Company’s previously authorized share repurchase program for the repurchase of shares of the Company’s Class A common stock, par value $0.000001 per share (the “Class A Common Stock”). The repurchase program has no expiration date, does not obligate the Company to acquire any particular amount of the Company’s Class A Common Stock, and it may be suspended at any time a…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 13, 2026, the Board of Directors of Toast, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Rossana Niola to be the Company’s Chief Accounting Officer effective as of her commencement of employment, which is expected to be January 26, 2026 (the “CAO Effective Date”), and to be the Company’s principal accounting officer effective as of March 2, 2026 (the “…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 4, 2025, Toast, Inc. announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act o…