Reading RBRK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RBRK free→Reading RBRK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RBRK free→NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated in a sector backdrop that is a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 120% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If RBRK reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising, that could lead to a credibility hit. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $69.22. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $69 RBRK trades at 10× p/s — 2.1× the 5× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $34 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $65–$110. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 120% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 5.42x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.02 → $0.04 (+148.1% / 30d). 17 raised, 5 cut, 25 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 24 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
10 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 23.0% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$242.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$624.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,552.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority for Rubrik. Strong growth signals success in their strategy.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 15% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Achieve revenue growth
Revenue jumps 39% and FY27 outlook raised.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filings, unless expre…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$65.00 – $110.00 (median $90.00) · 18 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Systems Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RBRK Rubrik Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MSFT Microsoft | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PANW Palo Alto Networks | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 25 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRWD CrowdStrike | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FTNT Fortinet | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Aim to reduce operating losses and move towards positive operating income.
Target positive EPS through operational improvements and revenue growth.
Why it matters: Better operating income is key for Rubrik's finances. It shows they manage costs well.
Confirms:Operating income improves to at least 40% of revenue in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income remains below 20% of revenue in Q2.
Why it matters: Positive EPS is key for Rubrik's growth. It impacts how investors feel.
Confirms one read:Q2 EPS reported as positive.
Confirms the other:Q2 EPS reported as negative.
Why it matters: The tech sector's growth phase affects Rubrik's performance. Slowing growth could hurt them.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays above 10% year over year.
Advances: Achieve revenue growth
AI speed recoveries enhance competitive positioning.
Advances: Achieve revenue growth
Signals strong subscription ARR growth for FY2027.
Advances: Achieve revenue growth
Full-year guidance raised, indicating growth potential.
Advances: Achieve revenue growth
Stock price target raised on cyber resilience strength.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filings, unless expre…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filings, unless exp…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 2, 2026, Brian McCarthy, President, Global Sales and Field Operations of the Company, notified the Company of his intent to resign, effective as of February 6, 2026, to pursue another opportunity. Jesse Green, the Company’s current President, Rubrik Americas, was promoted to Chief Revenue Officer to succeed Mr. McCarthy.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filings, unless expre…