Reading SAIL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SAIL free→Reading SAIL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SAIL free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, while management's recent track record has been steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 62% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If SAIL cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $14.21. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $14 SAIL trades at 7× p/s — 1.5× the 5× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $8.80 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $16–$23. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 61% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.31x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.08 → $0.08 (+2.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 21 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 8 maintained. 84% of analysts rate Buy.
10 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 20.2% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 11.1% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$224.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$701.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,676.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below the median, it signals weakening demand in the sector.
Confirms:SailPoint's revenue growth reported below the sector median growth rate.
Disproves:SailPoint's revenue growth remains above the sector median growth rate.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SAIL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including the earnings release incorporated into this Item 2.02, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$16.00 – $23.00 (median $19.00) · 14 analysts · as of 2026-06-10
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Systems Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SAIL SailPoint Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MSFT Microsoft | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | full | moderate |
PANW Palo Alto Networks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRWD CrowdStrike | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FTNT Fortinet | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Aim to achieve total revenue between $1,265 and $1,275 million for fiscal year 2027.
Target adjusted earnings per share between $0.30 and $0.34 for fiscal year 2027.
Aim to achieve total revenue between $308 and $312 million for Q2 2027.
Why it matters: This revenue range is a key target for the company. Meeting it shows growth progress.
Confirms:Q2 2027 revenue reported within the range of $308-$312 million.
Disproves:Q2 2027 revenue reported below $308 million.
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS range shows the company is making more money. It also means they are working better.
Confirms:Adjusted EPS reported between $0.30 and $0.34 for FY 2027.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS reported below $0.30 for FY 2027.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 8, 2026, SailPoint, Inc. (the “Company”) was notified of Nabil Hamade’s decision to resign from the board of directors of the Company (the “Board”) effective as of June 12, 2026. Mr. Hamade’s decision to resign from the Board was not due to any disagreement with the Company, including with respect to any matters relating to the Company’s op…
The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including the earnings release incorporated into this Item 2.02, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except…
The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including the earnings release incorporated into this Item 2.02, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On September 18, 2025, Kristin Weston notified SailPoint, Inc. (the “Company”) of her decision to resign from the board of directors of the Company (the “Board”), including in her capacity as Chair of the Board, effective as of October 31, 2025. Ms. Weston’s decision to resign from the Board was not due to any disagreement with the Company, includi…