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Track CRWD free→CrowdStrike (CRWD)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· 1–3 mo
$679.49-1.94%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 445% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This valuation hinges on guidance changes and the performance of sector bellwethers.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Software - Infrastructure
- Market cap
- $173.82B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2019-05-14
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $679.49. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$126.19consensus
Range $118.20 – $132.46
vs price: +438% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$262.93consensus
Range $246.64 – $287.95
vs price: +158% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $693, CRWD's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 33× p/s (6.7× the 5× p/s peer median, and 1.3× even its own history). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $130 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $368–$805. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
32.7x
peer 4.9x · own history 24.4x
Premium
6.7x peer
1.3x its own history
Growth the price needs
433%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$130.08
range $118.26 – $144.66
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 433% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
29th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 68.43x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
98th pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral32 PT revisions / 30d, avg 0.8% above currentfor period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.16 → $1.17 (+0.9% / 30d). 25 raised, 10 cut, 42 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 44 maintained. 78% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
32 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 0.8% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in maturing (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Guidance credibility
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$218.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$419.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,718.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for Q2 FY27 net new ARR growth guidance confirmation
Why it matters: The guidance shows CrowdStrike is growing fast. This is true, especially with AI use.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 FY27 net new ARR growth exceeds 27.7% year-over-year.
Disproves:Q2 FY27 net new ARR growth falls below 25% year-over-year.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CRWD yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for CRWD and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like MSFT, ORCL, and PLTR keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting CRWD and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If CRWD reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-06-03), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like MSFT, ORCL, and PLTR start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping CRWD and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits CRWD and other Tech names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0314d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 3, 2026, CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended April 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.