CrowdStrike (CRWD)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-15

$227.39-7.02%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge CrowdStrike’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.60 → 1.60 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 27 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 26 to 27; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve $20 billion annual recurring revenue	A primary condition in CrowdStrike's published investment case. The stated target is reach 20 billion USD ARR.	Intact	ARR growth stalls or fails to approach $20 billion	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. ARR grew from $4.66 billion in 2025-Q3 to $5.84 billion in 2026-Q3, a 25% increase year-over-year, with net new ARR reaching $333 million in 2026-Q3. Management consistently emphasizes the $20 billion ARR ambition, and the trajectory shows delivering growth toward this long-term goal. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Operating losses shrink toward -$30.6 million	Profit losses shrink steadily.	Intact	operating income worse than -30.6 million USD in FY27 Q1	Operating income: $-33.232M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating income >= -30.6 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 2026-33,232,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a3d5f909-600a-470f-9720-99104f5282bd. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows at least 25% year over year	A primary condition in CrowdStrike's published investment case. The stated target is >=25% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 25% in FY27	Revenue growth: 25.83% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=25% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 202625.830402 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a3d5f909-600a-470f-9720-99104f5282bd. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete $1.5 billion share repurchase program	A supporting condition in CrowdStrike's published investment case. The stated target is authorize and execute $1.5 billion buyback.	Intact	Buyback program is canceled or significantly reduced	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Board increased share repurchase authorization from $1.0 billion in 2026-Q1 to $1.5 billion in 2026-Q2. The company repurchased 143,801 shares for $50.6 million in 2025-Q4. Management is executing the repurchase program opportunistically. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$1.60

$1.56 → $1.60 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$7.37B

$7.24B → $7.37B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.56	$7,241,998,474	26 / 38
2026-07-25	$1.56	$7,241,998,474	26 / 38
2026-07-26	$1.56	$7,241,998,474	26 / 38
2026-07-27	$1.56	$7,241,998,474	26 / 38
2026-07-28	$1.56	$7,241,998,475	26 / 38
2026-07-29	$1.56	$7,241,998,475	26 / 38
2026-07-30	$1.56	$7,241,998,475	26 / 38
2026-07-31	$1.56	$7,240,934,677	27 / 39
2026-08-01	$1.56	$7,240,934,677	27 / 39
2026-08-02	$1.56	$7,240,934,677	27 / 39
2026-08-03	$1.56	$7,240,934,677	27 / 39
2026-08-04	$1.56	$7,240,934,677	27 / 39
2026-08-05	$1.56	$7,240,934,677	27 / 39
2026-08-06	$1.56	$7,240,934,677	27 / 39
2026-08-07	$1.56	$7,240,934,677	27 / 39
2026-08-08	$1.56	$7,240,934,677	27 / 39
2026-08-09	$1.56	$7,240,934,677	27 / 39
2026-08-10	$1.56	$7,240,934,677	27 / 39
2026-08-11	$1.56	$7,240,934,677	27 / 39
2026-08-12	$1.56	$7,237,063,420	50 / 51
2026-08-13	$1.56	$7,237,063,420	50 / 51
2026-08-14	$1.56	$7,240,934,677	27 / 39
2026-08-15	$1.56	$7,240,934,677	27 / 39
2026-08-16	$1.56	$7,240,934,677	27 / 39
2026-08-17	$1.56	$7,240,934,677	27 / 39
2026-08-18	$1.56	$7,240,934,677	28 / 39
2026-08-19	$1.56	$7,240,934,677	28 / 39
2026-08-20	$1.56	$7,243,015,325	28 / 39
2026-08-21	$1.56	$7,243,171,412	28 / 39
2026-08-22	$1.56	$7,243,172,611	28 / 39
2026-08-23	$1.56	$7,244,485,037	27 / 39
2026-08-24	$1.56	$7,244,485,037	27 / 39
2026-08-25	$1.56	$7,244,485,037	27 / 39
2026-08-26	$1.56	$7,244,485,037	27 / 39
2026-08-27	$1.56	$7,244,485,037	27 / 39
2026-08-28	$1.56	$7,244,485,037	27 / 39
2026-08-29	$1.58	$7,333,734,071	26 / 38
2026-08-30	$1.58	$7,333,734,071	26 / 38
2026-08-31	$1.59	$7,332,619,314	26 / 37
2026-09-01	$1.59	$7,332,619,314	26 / 37
2026-09-02	$1.59	$7,335,579,163	27 / 39
2026-09-03	$1.59	$7,335,579,163	26 / 39
2026-09-04	$1.59	$7,351,336,822	26 / 39
2026-09-05	$1.60	$7,358,820,086	27 / 38
2026-09-06	$1.60	$7,358,820,086	27 / 38
2026-09-07	$1.60	$7,358,820,086	27 / 38
2026-09-08	$1.60	$7,358,820,086	27 / 38
2026-09-09	$1.60	$7,358,820,086	27 / 38
2026-09-10	$1.60	$7,358,820,086	27 / 38
2026-09-11	$1.60	$7,358,820,086	27 / 38
2026-09-12	$1.60	$7,361,712,086	27 / 38
2026-09-13	$1.60	$7,367,193,353	26 / 38
2026-09-14	$1.60	$7,367,193,353	26 / 38
2026-09-15	$1.60	$7,368,132,047	26 / 38
2026-09-16	$1.60	$7,368,130,614	26 / 38
2026-09-17	$1.60	$7,368,130,614	27 / 38
2026-09-18	$1.60	$7,368,130,618	27 / 38
2026-09-19	$1.60	$7,368,085,720	27 / 38
2026-09-20	$1.60	$7,368,085,720	27 / 38
2026-09-21	$1.60	$7,368,085,720	27 / 38
2026-09-22	$1.60	$7,371,490,070	27 / 38
2026-09-23	$1.60	$7,371,490,070	27 / 38
2026-09-24	$1.60	$7,371,490,070	27 / 38
2026-09-25	$1.60	$7,371,490,070	27 / 38
2026-09-26	$1.60	$7,371,490,070	27 / 38
2026-09-27	$1.60	$7,371,490,070	27 / 38
2026-09-28	$1.60	$7,371,490,070	27 / 38
2026-09-29	$1.60	$7,371,490,070	27 / 38
2026-09-30	$1.60	$7,371,911,530	27 / 38
2026-10-01	$1.60	$7,371,911,530	27 / 38
2026-10-02	$1.60	$7,371,911,532	27 / 38
2026-10-03	$1.60	$7,371,911,532	27 / 38
2026-10-04	$1.60	$7,371,911,532	27 / 38
2026-10-05	$1.60	$7,371,911,532	27 / 38
2026-10-06	$1.60	$7,368,399,522	27 / 38
2026-10-07	$1.60	$7,368,399,523	27 / 38
2026-10-08	$1.60	$7,368,399,523	27 / 38
2026-10-09	$1.60	$7,368,399,523	27 / 38
2026-10-10	$1.60	$7,368,077,532	27 / 38
2026-10-11	$1.60	$7,368,077,528	27 / 38
2026-10-12	$1.60	$7,368,077,528	27 / 38
2026-10-13	$1.60	$7,368,077,528	27 / 38
2026-10-14	$1.60	$7,368,077,528	27 / 38
2026-10-15	$1.60	$7,368,077,528	27 / 38

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	43	12	1
2026-06-01	43	11	1
2026-07-01	42	11	1
2026-08-01	41	13	1
2026-09-01	40	12	1
2026-10-01	40	12	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 40 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades11 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 11 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BTIGOct 14 · prior Aug 27

$245.00 → $312.00+27.3%

Wells FargoOct 12 · prior Aug 28

$235.00 → $300.00+27.7%

UBSOct 9 · prior Aug 27

$250.00 → $310.00+24.0%

NeedhamOct 9 · prior Aug 27

$250.00 → $310.00+24.0%

BMO CapitalOct 8 · prior Aug 27

$235.00 → $295.00+25.5%

Morgan StanleySep 21 · prior Aug 27

$238.00 → $254.00+6.7%

StephensSep 18

$280.00New observation · no comparable prior

BernsteinSep 17 · prior Aug 27

$119.00 → $132.00+10.9%

$0$171.60$343.20

7 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve $20 billion annual recurring revenueDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Operating losses shrink toward -$30.6 millionOperating income: $-33.232M
Revenue grows at least 25% year over yearRevenue growth: 25.83%
Complete $1.5 billion share repurchase programDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Dec 1, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-37.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

CrowdStrike outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround story in the tech sector. The company is currently loss-making but is focused on achieving significant revenue growth and improving profitability over the next few years.

What's priced into CrowdStrike

The market appears to be pricing in a high valuation premium compared to peers, suggesting that expectations may be unjustified given the company's recent performance. There is a notable expectations gap, indicating that the market may be overly optimistic about future results.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve its goals, with strong growth in annual recurring revenue and total revenue. However, the recent earnings miss raises concerns about execution, and the near-term risk remains elevated.

What CrowdStrike hinges on

The thesis hinges on the company's ability to maintain its growth trajectory and improve profitability. Additionally, external factors such as potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and performance from sector leaders will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook.