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Track NOW free→NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 17% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the stock's trajectory. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $101.37. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $104 NOW trades at 33× p/e, in line with its 28× p/e peer median. Our $89 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $85–$236. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 17% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 23%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.09x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.85 → $0.86 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 38 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 90% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.9% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$242.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$515.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,028.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
The signal label changed to mixed. Risk fell. Management became more volatile. The sector backdrop remained a tailwind.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A slowdown in subscription revenue growth may show less demand for ServiceNow's products.
Confirms:Q2 subscription revenue growth was below 20% compared to last year.
Disproves:Q2 subscription revenue growth stays at or above 20% year-over-year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Enhance AI-driven workflow and platform innovation
Partnership enhances AI-driven workflow and platform innovation.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 21, 2026, ServiceNow, Inc. (“ServiceNow” or the “Company”) held its 2026 Annual Shareholders Meeting (the “Annual Meeting”) at which the shareholders approved, among other matters, amendments to the Amended and Restated 2021 Equity Incentive Plan (the “Amended Plan”) to increase the available share reserve by 38,000,000 shares. The Amended P…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$85.00 – $236.00 (median $130.00) · 22 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Systems Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NOW ServiceNow | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | full | elevated |
MSFT Microsoft | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | full | moderate |
PANW Palo Alto Networks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRWD CrowdStrike | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FTNT Fortinet | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
19 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on expanding subscription revenue through strategic initiatives and acquisitions.
Advance AI capabilities and integrate them into new product categories and workflows.
Utilize financial resources to support mergers and acquisitions for strategic growth.
ServiceNow aims to advance enterprise AI into new product categories and ways of working.
Why it matters: Growth in RPO shows strong future revenue and customer loyalty.
Confirms:RPO growth reported above 25% year-over-year in Q2.
Disproves:RPO growth reported below 20% year-over-year in Q2.
Why it matters: New large contracts show strong demand and growth for ServiceNow's platform.
Confirms:At least 20 new contracts over $5 million in net new annual contract value in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Fewer than 10 new contracts over $5 million in net new annual contract value in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The Armis acquisition may help ServiceNow grow. It could also boost its market position.
Confirms:Revenue growth speeds up after the Armis acquisition.
Disproves:Revenue growth slows or remains flat post-acquisition.
Why it matters: A rise in cRPO shows strong demand and future revenue.
Confirms:cRPO grows year-over-year by more than 22.5%.
Disproves:cRPO growth is less than 22.5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Changes in free cash flow guidance can show shifts in financial health and efficiency.
Confirms one read:Management raises free cash flow margin guidance for 2026 by more than 250bps year-over-year.
Confirms the other:Management cuts the free cash flow margin forecast for 2026. It is now below 250bps year-over-year.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback program show management's trust in the company's value.
Confirms one read:Management announces a rise in the share buyback program.
Confirms the other:Management stops or cuts the share buyback program.
Advances: Enhance AI-driven workflow and platform innovation
Partnership enhances AI-driven workflow and platform innovation.
Threatens: Enhance AI-driven workflow and platform innovation
Security incident raises concerns about AI governance and workflow integrity.
Threatens: Enhance AI-driven workflow and platform innovation
Security incident raises concerns about AI governance and workflow integrity.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 15, 2026, ServiceNow, Inc. (the “ Company ”) completed an offering of $4,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of notes, consisting of $750,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 4.250% Notes due 2028 (the “ 2028 Notes ”), $600,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 4.700% Notes due 2031 (the “ 2031 Notes ”), $650,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 5.050% Notes due 2033 (the “ 2033 Notes ”), $1,250,000,000 aggregate principal am…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
of Form 8-K and is not deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing of ServiceNow under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date hereof and irrespective of any general incorporation language in any filings.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 17, 2026, ServiceNow, Inc. ("ServiceNow" or the “Company”) entered into a Term Loan Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”), among the Company, the lenders party thereto (collectively, the “Lenders”), and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent (“Agent”), providing for a $4 billion unsecured term loan (the "Term Loan") that matures on October 16, 2026. The Company used the proceeds from the Term Loan to finance a portion of the…