Microsoft (MSFT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-29
$530.14-0.16%
Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put MSFT beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Systems Software: fringe margins under pressure (2q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Microsoft Cloud revenue grows at least 20% annually: Comparison needs review.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 18% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 49% growth a year, above the roughly 20% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 1% on a typical day and fell roughly 35% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskMicrosoft’s cloud and AI infrastructure growth is the central claim, supported by steady revenue growth near 20%. Q1 FY2027 revenue grew 19% year over year, and earnings beat consensus. Shares trade at 29 times P/E versus a 46 times peer median. The market is pricing in more growth than our forecast, leaving expectations full. Power delays could constrain AI infrastructure expansion, while the next-quarter miss probability is 18%. The Cloud growth pillar’s comparison needs review, not confirmation of a breach. Peer multiples imply a price about 49% below where it trades; the thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. MSFT is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 58 analysts currently covering MSFT (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 27 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for MSFT in the last 4 months.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Systems Software — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put MSFT next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Expand cloud and AI infrastructure and solutions
Announced enterprise partnership supports Microsoft's AI solutions and customers' efficiency and growth.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $530.14
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $530.14.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Expand cloud and AI infrastructure and solutions
Nadella describes agent governance capabilities attracting major AI developers.
Advances: Expand cloud and AI infrastructure and solutions
Data center timeline remains intact despite a Texas pause, supporting infrastructure expansion.
Advances: Expand cloud and AI infrastructure and solutions
Planned debt funding supports AI infrastructure expansion, though borrowing alone does not establish returns.
Advances: Expand cloud and AI infrastructure and solutions
Copilot expansion in education supports AI distribution, though pricing and adoption impact remain uncertain.
Advances: Grow Microsoft Cloud revenue
Azure growth and AI-spending commentary support Microsoft Cloud demand.
Advances: Expand cloud and AI infrastructure and solutions
Adding 24 data centres materially expands capacity for cloud and AI demand.
Advances: Expand cloud and AI infrastructure and solutions
Large infrastructure investment supports Azure capacity, though raises execution and spending-return risks.
