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NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$393.83-1.48%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality and management's recent track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind, with MSFT compared to sector peers being above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment hinges on guidance changes, as a cut could negatively impact estimates, while a raise could boost momentum. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Software - Infrastructure
- Market cap
- $2.97T
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1986-03-13
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-29
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $393.83. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$255.58consensus
Range $199.03 – $470.15
vs price: +54% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$370.67consensus
Range $295.84 – $616.72
vs price: +6% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $394 MSFT trades at 23× p/e, below its 27× p/e peer median. Our $256 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $415–$680. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
23.4x
peer 27.5x · own history 32.6x
Premium
0.9x peer
0.7x its own history
Growth the price needs
54%
our forecast 17%
Our fair value
$255.58
range $206.54 – $470.15
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensivefair12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 54% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
75th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.36x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
34th pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral31 analysts, 95% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $4.24 → $4.24 (+0.0% / 30d). 8 raised, 17 cut, 31 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 95% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$112.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$264.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,391.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'expensive'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 11d
Watch for Q3 earnings guidance above current expectations
Why it matters: Stronger guidance would indicate confidence in future growth and could boost stock performance.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management expects Q3 earnings to be higher than what the market thinks.
Disproves:Management expects Q3 earnings to match or be lower than current market thoughts.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-173h agomint
Advances: Focus on cloud and AI infrastructure
Cheaper AI could enhance cloud and AI infrastructure focus.
ReinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for MSFT and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like ORCL, PLTR, and PANW keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting MSFT and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If MSFT raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2024-12-11), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If MSFT cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2024-12-11), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like ORCL, PLTR, and PANW start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping MSFT and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0512d agoItem 5.02
Director — Reid Hoffman: Reid Hoffman decided not to stand for re-election as a director.
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.