What's priced into Microsoft (MSFT) stock?

The market appears to have priced in an elevated valuation, reflecting expectations of continued strong performance. However, there is a noted fragility due to expensive valuation and weak execution quality compared to peers.

What does the Microsoft (MSFT) outlook hinge on?

The long-term thesis hinges on favorable scenarios such as potential Fed rate cuts and positive earnings from sector bellwethers. Conversely, a cut in guidance could negatively impact expectations and stock performance.

Microsoft (MSFT) Outlook: What's Priced In

What could strengthen or challenge Microsoft’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

23.48 → 23.50 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 29 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 29 to 29; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Twelve-year operating bridge · estimated, unvalidated forecasts
Operating measure	Path	FY2027	FY2028	FY2029
RevenueUSD B	Projected	399.40	469.00	541.00
Revenue growth	Projected	20.4%	17.4%	15.4%
Operating marginExecution focus	Projected	46.3%	47.6%	47.5%
Common earningsUSD B	Projected	148.00	178.97	205.95
EPSUSD/share	Projected	19.93	24.10	27.73
Net reinvestmentUSD B	Projected	157.97	171.76	175.64
Gross cash capexUSD B	Projected	190.00	225.00	245.00
Depreciation / amort.USD B	Projected	52.00	72.00	91.00
Working capital addedUSD B	Projected	19.97	18.76	21.64
Common bookUSD B	Projected	607.11	784.44	965.84
Operating capitalUSD B	Projected	652.33	824.09	999.73
ROIC	Projected	30.1%	27.5%	25.0%
Common excess earningsUSD B	Projected	103.40	117.76	126.85
SharesB	Projected	7.43	7.43	7.43
Share change	Projected	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Net common cashUSD B	Projected	-16.72	1.65	24.55
Common-cash requirementUSD B	Projected	16.72	0.00	0.00
Forecast stage	explicit	explicit	explicit

Operating measure

Path

FY2027

FY2028

FY2029

RevenueUSD B

Projected

399.40

469.00

541.00

Revenue growth

Projected

20.4%

17.4%

15.4%

Operating marginExecution focus

Projected

46.3%

47.6%

47.5%

Common earningsUSD B

Projected

148.00

178.97

205.95

EPSUSD/share

Projected

19.93

24.10

27.73

Net reinvestmentUSD B

Projected

157.97

171.76

175.64

Gross cash capexUSD B

Projected

190.00

225.00

245.00

Depreciation / amort.USD B

Projected

52.00

72.00

91.00

Working capital addedUSD B

Projected

19.97

18.76

21.64

Common bookUSD B

Projected

607.11

784.44

965.84

Operating capitalUSD B

Projected

652.33

824.09

999.73

ROIC

Projected

30.1%

27.5%

25.0%

Common excess earningsUSD B

Projected

103.40

117.76

126.85

SharesB

Projected

7.43

Share change

Projected

0.0%

Net common cashUSD B

Projected

-16.72

1.65

24.55

Common-cash requirementUSD B

Projected

16.72

0.00

Forecast stage

explicit

Compare the operating change with the company work identified in the published report. A named initiative is not proof that the price is achievable, and its value is not added on top of Living FV.

Calculate a target path to quantify the gap. Published projections and initiative links are shown now; a required path has not been calculated.

2026-06-30 to 2027-06-30 · consolidated model path · estimated, unvalidated forecasts. Accounting comparability with reported results is not established.

Revenue and growth

Revenue: Projected: $399,400,000,000.00
Scenario: Not calculated
Revenue growth: Projected: 20.4%
Scenario: Not calculated

Company initiatives in this report

12 source-declared links to this operating channel

Microsoft 365 Copilot
Included in consolidated path · progress reported
Condition, timing and source
Net paid seat adds expected to increase sequentially in Q3 FY27, driving continued ARPU growth.
Model setting: Reflect sequential growth in paid seats and ARPU within consolidated revenue growth.
Affected fields: revenue_growth. This is a published model binding, not measured delivery or an incremental price contribution.
Source date: 2026-10-08 15:51:47+00:00. Initiative ID: I4903ec53cac90614.
Source references: 1285567 / dfcb2969-00c4-5a70-bbfa-36245b4bccac.
Initiative-specific comparable scope, accounting basis, units and full-year observation period are not declared in this binding. Delivery against the required path remains unverified.
data centers
Included in consolidated path · progress reported
Condition, timing and source
Capacity expansion is ongoing; revenue growth is driven by strong demand for compute and AI services.
Model setting: Reflects active data center expansion to meet demand; capex guidance of ~$190B for CY2026 and Azure growth acceleration are already captured in consolidated operating reference.
Affected fields: net_ppe_investment_ratio, revenue_growth. This is a published model binding, not measured delivery or an incremental price contribution.
Source date: 2026-07-14 06:29:03+00:00. Initiative ID: I1612cd4ceec3d593.
Source references: 1283516 / ede11067-df4a-5365-b0ee-280ca5a73143; 1283516 / ede11067-df4a-5365-b0ee-280ca5a73143.
Initiative-specific comparable scope, accounting basis, units and full-year observation period are not declared in this binding. Delivery against the required path remains unverified.
push toward cheaper, more flexible AI models
Included in consolidated path · unknown
Condition, timing and source
Pricing strategy change; specific impact on revenue or margin is not quantified.
Model setting: Push toward cheaper, flexible AI models may intensify competition; included in consolidated revenue growth assumptions.
Affected fields: revenue_growth. This is a published model binding, not measured delivery or an incremental price contribution.
Source date: 2026-06-23 06:42:53+00:00. Initiative ID: Id50db1de22a926d2.
Source references: 1282925 / 5f941ae7-a7be-5b9d-b4f7-c65467f5fc1a.
Initiative-specific comparable scope, accounting basis, units and full-year observation period are not declared in this binding. Delivery against the required path remains unverified.

Thesis drivers and incoming evidence (2)

Microsoft Cloud revenue grows at least 20% annually

Thematic connection only; no source binds this thesis driver to an individual initiative or a dollar share of the gap.

Management priority: Increase Microsoft Cloud revenue · 2026-07-29 · press_release · ID f6e03b9314b7c433.

Published objective: >=20% YoY growth · FY27 · qualitative.

Latest evidence: Direct metric needs a verified mapping.

The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding.

Insufficient comparable evidence

A source-bound direct measurement is unavailable.
The annual engine output does not declare a comparable reported accounting basis; numeric delivery progress is unavailable.

Read the full thesis assessment

Stabilize Xbox and gaming revenue after restructuring

Thematic connection only; no source binds this thesis driver to an individual initiative or a dollar share of the gap.

Published objective: Gaming revenue stabilizes or grows within next 4 quarters · next 4 quarters · qualitative.

Latest evidence: Gaming unavailable in the latest segment data.

Last available Gaming revenue: $5.341B in FY2026-Q3. Latest source period is FY2026-Q4; a broader segment cannot substitute for this measure.

Gaming · reported segment · units USD · source stock_segment_revenue / 2026-Q3.

Insufficient comparable evidence

This is an earlier observation, not a current direct measurement.
segment revenue is not the required consolidated revenue, operating margin or capital measure.
Gaming scope does not measure the consolidated path.
Observation ends 2026-03-31; selected model year runs 2026-06-30 to 2027-06-30.
The observation does not supply a comparable full-year start date; no quarterly annualization is applied.
Source status is vendor observation.
The annual engine output does not declare a comparable reported accounting basis; numeric delivery progress is unavailable.

Read the full thesis assessment

Operating profitability

Operating margin: Projected: 46.3%
Scenario: Not calculated

Company initiatives in this report

12 source-declared links to this operating channel

ASICs
Included in consolidated path · unknown
Condition, timing and source
ASICs are well-suited for predictable workloads, improving efficiency and lowering computing costs.
Model setting: ASIC deployment is expected to improve efficiency and lower computing costs, contributing to future operating margin expansion within the consolidated forecast.
Affected fields: operating_margin. This is a published model binding, not measured delivery or an incremental price contribution.
Source date: 2026-09-21 19:03:14+00:00. Initiative ID: Ie07ff79eec67e46d.
Source references: 1285171 / e820d5b1-f88b-58b5-ab6d-6f413cf9fc4d.
Initiative-specific comparable scope, accounting basis, units and full-year observation period are not declared in this binding. Delivery against the required path remains unverified.
zero water for cooling
Included in consolidated path · progress reported
Condition, timing and source
Hyderabad facility uses effectively zero water for cooling
Model setting: Adjust operating margin for reduced cooling costs
Affected fields: operating_margin. This is a published model binding, not measured delivery or an incremental price contribution.
Source date: 2026-09-21 07:50:29+00:00. Initiative ID: I7bf784185a3b9b91.
Source references: 1285132 / 0acc498d-fa34-5fab-904c-90f67092060d.
Initiative-specific comparable scope, accounting basis, units and full-year observation period are not declared in this binding. Delivery against the required path remains unverified.
Hyderabad facility
Included in consolidated path · progress reported
Condition, timing and source
Hyderabad facility uses effectively zero water for cooling
Model setting: Adjust operating margin for reduced cooling costs
Affected fields: operating_margin. This is a published model binding, not measured delivery or an incremental price contribution.
Source date: 2026-09-21 07:47:47+00:00. Initiative ID: Ibdb9eddaa357a913.
Source references: 1285131 / d54e0ed0-7c71-52f2-aae2-5e459b38b242.
Initiative-specific comparable scope, accounting basis, units and full-year observation period are not declared in this binding. Delivery against the required path remains unverified.

Thesis drivers and incoming evidence (1)

Operating income grows at least 15% annually

Thematic connection only; no source binds this thesis driver to an individual initiative or a dollar share of the gap.

Management priority: Enhance operating income · 2026-07-29 · press_release · ID 97b07899995719ff.

Published objective: >=15% YoY growth · FY27 · qualitative.

Latest evidence: Operating income growth: 18.3%.

FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=15% YoY growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation.

consolidated · GAAP · units percent · source stock_quarterly_financials_fmp / 2026-Q4.

Insufficient comparable evidence

operating income yoy pct is not the required consolidated revenue, operating margin or capital measure.
Observation ends 2026-06-30; selected model year runs 2026-06-30 to 2027-06-30.
The observation does not supply a comparable full-year start date; no quarterly annualization is applied.
Source status is unverified.
The annual engine output does not declare a comparable reported accounting basis; numeric delivery progress is unavailable.

Read the full thesis assessment

Capital and cash timing

Net reinvestment: Projected: $157,970,000,000.00
Scenario: Not calculated
Net PPE investment: Projected: $138,000,000,000.00
Scenario: Not calculated
Working capital added: Projected: $19,970,000,000.00
Scenario: Not calculated
Common-cash requirement: Projected: $16,723,606,449.71
Scenario: Not calculated

Investment and funding are different. A modeled cash requirement needs a funding source, cost and ownership effect; cash-reserve policies are not interchangeable with financing.

Company initiatives in this report

12 source-declared links to this operating channel

India data centre spending
Included in consolidated path · unknown
Condition, timing and source
Committed $20.5 billion in India data center spending.
Model setting: Total $20.5B India commitment is the aggregate of past and future investments, fully integrated into the consolidated capex forecast.
Affected fields: net_ppe_investment_ratio. This is a published model binding, not measured delivery or an incremental price contribution.
Source date: 2026-09-22 00:31:10+00:00. Initiative ID: I83c6c40c04d891c7.
Source references: 1285178 / d12d3e8b-e2e6-5e65-ad95-e0fdb773fd9d.
Initiative-specific comparable scope, accounting basis, units and full-year observation period are not declared in this binding. Delivery against the required path remains unverified.
double its data centers in Taiwan
Included in consolidated path · unknown
Condition, timing and source
Plan to double data centers in Taiwan from two to four facilities.
Model setting: Doubling Taiwan data centers from 2 to 4 is a new capacity plan contributing to the overall global capex and PPE investment trajectory.
Affected fields: net_ppe_investment_ratio. This is a published model binding, not measured delivery or an incremental price contribution.
Source date: 2026-09-21 19:03:14+00:00. Initiative ID: Ifbfa4d1ad22e084d.
Source references: 1285171 / e820d5b1-f88b-58b5-ab6d-6f413cf9fc4d.
Initiative-specific comparable scope, accounting basis, units and full-year observation period are not declared in this binding. Delivery against the required path remains unverified.
fresh USD 17.5 billion investment
Included in consolidated path · unknown
Condition, timing and source
Fresh USD 17.5 billion investment over 2026-29 for cloud and AI infrastructure in India.
Model setting: Incremental $17.5B capex commitment for 2026-29 is part of the consolidated global capex plan, contributing to rising PPE investment ratios.
Affected fields: net_ppe_investment_ratio. This is a published model binding, not measured delivery or an incremental price contribution.
Source date: 2026-09-21 13:57:25+00:00. Initiative ID: I2fe403a060931c1e.
Source references: 1285160 / 1333fbca-0b7a-5e21-91f8-878398dee975.
Initiative-specific comparable scope, accounting basis, units and full-year observation period are not declared in this binding. Delivery against the required path remains unverified.

Thesis drivers and incoming evidence (1)

Successful execution of AI and cloud infrastructure strategy

Thematic connection only; no source binds this thesis driver to an individual initiative or a dollar share of the gap.

Published objective: Sustain or improve AI/cloud market share and product leadership · next 4 quarters · qualitative.

Latest evidence: Qualitative: Azure growth & AI model launch vs sustain/improve target.

UBS raised target on Azure strength; Microsoft unveiled 2.8T parameter model; recent earnings beats confirm positive trajectory.

Insufficient comparable evidence

A source-bound direct measurement is unavailable.
The annual engine output does not declare a comparable reported accounting basis; numeric delivery progress is unavailable.

Read the full thesis assessment

Timing matters: changing a selected year does not shift an initiative's disclosed delivery date or establish that it can meet the requirement. Forecast outcomes are unknown; no numerical completion percentage is inferred.

34 unique initiative records shown from 1278; 1244 others, including unquantified or unsupported fields, remain in the full report. Selection prioritizes declared consolidated bindings, then source date, with up to 12 per channel. Inspect all source bindings.

Estimate revisions, ratings and analyst targets in Incoming Evidence describe expectations, not delivered outcomes. No initiative dollar attribution is claimed without an engine counterfactual.

Equity return	Living FV at report date
9.1%	$490.20
10.1%	$392.67
11.1%	$323.46

Equity return

Living FV at report date

9.1%

$490.20

10.1%

$392.67

11.1%

$323.46

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Successful execution of AI and cloud infrastructure strategy	The company manages costs and focuses on cloud and AI infrastructure.	Intact	Significant setbacks in AI/cloud strategy or market share loss	Qualitative: Azure growth & AI model launch vs sustain/improve target UBS raised target on Azure strength; Microsoft unveiled 2.8T parameter model; recent earnings beats confirm positive trajectory. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Key Factor

Why It Matters

Current Status

Break Condition

Latest Evidence

Successful execution of AI and cloud infrastructure strategy

The company manages costs and focuses on cloud and AI infrastructure.

Intact

Significant setbacks in AI/cloud strategy or market share loss

Qualitative: Azure growth & AI model launch vs sustain/improve target

UBS raised target on Azure strength; Microsoft unveiled 2.8T parameter model; recent earnings beats confirm positive trajectory.

Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes

Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$22.77	$456,585,857,720	29 / 40
2026-07-25	$22.77	$456,585,857,720	29 / 40
2026-07-26	$22.77	$456,585,857,720	29 / 40
2026-07-27	$22.77	$456,585,857,720	29 / 40
2026-07-28	$22.78	$456,618,704,203	29 / 40
2026-07-29	$22.78	$456,618,704,203	29 / 40
2026-07-30	$22.59	$456,147,540,030	27 / 40
2026-07-31	$23.25	$464,753,452,886	22 / 31
2026-08-01	$23.25	$464,753,452,886	22 / 31
2026-08-02	$23.28	$465,582,554,830	32 / 48
2026-08-03	$23.25	$465,859,474,297	25 / 34
2026-08-04	$23.28	$465,582,554,830	32 / 48
2026-08-05	$23.47	$466,326,461,870	33 / 49
2026-08-06	$23.25	$465,859,474,297	25 / 34
2026-08-07	$23.25	$465,859,474,297	25 / 34
2026-08-08	$23.47	$467,462,563,910	33 / 49
2026-08-09	$23.47	$467,462,563,910	33 / 49
2026-08-10	$23.47	$467,462,563,910	33 / 49
2026-08-12	$23.25	$465,859,474,297	25 / 34
2026-08-13	$23.25	$465,859,474,297	25 / 34
2026-08-14	$23.25	$465,859,474,297	25 / 34
2026-08-15	$23.25	$465,859,474,297	27 / 36
2026-08-16	$23.25	$465,859,474,297	27 / 36
2026-08-17	$23.25	$465,859,474,297	27 / 36
2026-08-18	$23.25	$465,859,474,297	27 / 36
2026-08-19	$23.25	$465,859,474,297	27 / 36
2026-08-20	$23.51	$467,685,530,960	28 / 37
2026-08-21	$23.51	$467,685,530,960	28 / 37
2026-08-22	$23.48	$467,331,820,341	28 / 37
2026-08-23	$23.48	$467,331,821,605	28 / 37
2026-08-24	$23.48	$467,331,821,605	28 / 37
2026-08-25	$23.48	$466,662,143,258	28 / 38
2026-08-26	$23.48	$466,662,143,258	29 / 38
2026-08-27	$23.48	$466,662,143,258	29 / 38
2026-08-28	$23.48	$466,662,143,258	29 / 38
2026-08-29	$23.48	$466,662,143,258	29 / 38
2026-08-30	$23.48	$466,662,143,258	29 / 38
2026-08-31	$23.48	$466,662,143,258	29 / 38
2026-09-01	$23.48	$466,662,143,258	29 / 38
2026-09-02	$23.48	$466,662,143,258	29 / 38
2026-09-03	$23.48	$466,662,143,258	29 / 38
2026-09-04	$23.48	$466,662,169,510	29 / 38
2026-09-05	$23.48	$466,662,169,510	29 / 38
2026-09-06	$23.48	$466,662,169,510	29 / 38
2026-09-07	$23.48	$466,662,169,510	29 / 38
2026-09-08	$23.48	$466,662,169,510	29 / 38
2026-09-09	$23.48	$466,662,169,510	29 / 38
2026-09-10	$23.48	$466,662,172,669	29 / 38
2026-09-11	$23.48	$466,656,447,179	29 / 38
2026-09-12	$23.48	$466,656,447,179	29 / 38
2026-09-13	$23.48	$466,656,447,179	29 / 38
2026-09-14	$23.48	$466,656,447,179	29 / 38
2026-09-15	$23.48	$466,656,447,179	29 / 38
2026-09-16	$23.49	$466,773,918,073	29 / 38
2026-09-17	$23.49	$466,773,918,073	29 / 38
2026-09-18	$23.49	$466,773,918,073	29 / 38
2026-09-19	$23.49	$466,773,918,073	29 / 38
2026-09-20	$23.49	$466,773,918,073	29 / 38
2026-09-21	$23.49	$466,773,918,073	29 / 38
2026-09-22	$23.49	$466,773,918,073	29 / 38
2026-09-23	$23.48	$466,579,427,877	28 / 38
2026-09-24	$23.48	$466,579,427,877	28 / 38
2026-09-25	$23.48	$466,579,427,877	28 / 38
2026-09-26	$23.48	$466,579,427,877	28 / 38
2026-09-27	$23.48	$466,579,427,877	28 / 38
2026-09-28	$23.48	$466,579,427,877	28 / 38
2026-09-29	$23.48	$466,579,623,955	28 / 38
2026-09-30	$23.48	$466,579,623,955	28 / 38
2026-10-01	$23.48	$466,579,721,995	29 / 38
2026-10-02	$23.48	$466,621,329,838	29 / 39
2026-10-03	$23.48	$466,621,133,759	29 / 39
2026-10-04	$23.48	$466,621,133,759	29 / 39
2026-10-05	$23.48	$466,621,133,759	29 / 39
2026-10-06	$23.51	$467,269,663,171	29 / 39
2026-10-07	$23.50	$467,270,976,897	29 / 39
2026-10-08	$23.50	$467,270,976,897	29 / 39
2026-10-09	$23.50	$467,270,976,897	29 / 39
2026-10-10	$23.50	$467,270,976,897	29 / 39
2026-10-11	$23.51	$467,270,976,897	29 / 39
2026-10-12	$23.51	$467,270,976,897	29 / 39
2026-10-13	$23.50	$467,235,839,642	29 / 39
2026-10-14	$23.50	$467,235,839,642	29 / 39
2026-10-15	$23.50	$467,235,839,642	29 / 39

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp

Snapshot

EPS

Revenue

EPS / revenue analysts

2026-07-24

$22.77

$456,585,857,720

29 / 40

2026-07-25

$22.77

$456,585,857,720

29 / 40

2026-07-26

$22.77

$456,585,857,720

29 / 40

2026-07-27

$22.77

$456,585,857,720

29 / 40

2026-07-28

$22.78

$456,618,704,203

29 / 40

2026-07-29

$22.78

$456,618,704,203

29 / 40

2026-07-30

$22.59

$456,147,540,030

27 / 40

2026-07-31

$23.25

$464,753,452,886

22 / 31

2026-08-01

$23.25

$464,753,452,886

22 / 31

2026-08-02

$23.28

$465,582,554,830

32 / 48

2026-08-03

$23.25

$465,859,474,297

25 / 34

2026-08-04

$23.28

$465,582,554,830

32 / 48

2026-08-05

$23.47

$466,326,461,870

33 / 49

2026-08-06

$23.25

$465,859,474,297

25 / 34

2026-08-07

$23.25

$465,859,474,297

25 / 34

2026-08-08

$23.47

$467,462,563,910

33 / 49

2026-08-09

$23.47

$467,462,563,910

33 / 49

2026-08-10

$23.47

$467,462,563,910

33 / 49

2026-08-12

$23.25

$465,859,474,297

25 / 34

2026-08-13

$23.25

$465,859,474,297

25 / 34

2026-08-14

$23.25

$465,859,474,297

25 / 34

2026-08-15

$23.25

$465,859,474,297

27 / 36

2026-08-16

$23.25

$465,859,474,297

27 / 36

2026-08-17

$23.25

$465,859,474,297

27 / 36

2026-08-18

$23.25

$465,859,474,297

27 / 36

2026-08-19

$23.25

$465,859,474,297

27 / 36

2026-08-20

$23.51

$467,685,530,960

28 / 37

2026-08-21

$23.51

$467,685,530,960

28 / 37

2026-08-22

$23.48

$467,331,820,341

28 / 37

2026-08-23

$23.48

$467,331,821,605

28 / 37

2026-08-24

$23.48

$467,331,821,605

28 / 37

2026-08-25

$23.48

$466,662,143,258

28 / 38

2026-08-26

$23.48

$466,662,143,258

29 / 38

2026-08-27

$23.48

$466,662,143,258

29 / 38

2026-08-28

$23.48

$466,662,143,258

29 / 38

2026-08-29

$23.48

$466,662,143,258

29 / 38

2026-08-30

$23.48

$466,662,143,258

29 / 38

2026-08-31

$23.48

$466,662,143,258

29 / 38

2026-09-01

$23.48

$466,662,143,258

29 / 38

2026-09-02

$23.48

$466,662,143,258

29 / 38

2026-09-03

$23.48

$466,662,143,258

29 / 38

2026-09-04

$23.48

$466,662,169,510

29 / 38

2026-09-05

$23.48

$466,662,169,510

29 / 38

2026-09-06

$23.48

$466,662,169,510

29 / 38

2026-09-07

$23.48

$466,662,169,510

29 / 38

2026-09-08

$23.48

$466,662,169,510

29 / 38

2026-09-09

$23.48

$466,662,169,510

29 / 38

2026-09-10

$23.48

$466,662,172,669

29 / 38

2026-09-11

$23.48

$466,656,447,179

29 / 38

2026-09-12

$23.48

$466,656,447,179

29 / 38

2026-09-13

$23.48

$466,656,447,179

29 / 38

2026-09-14

$23.48

$466,656,447,179

29 / 38

2026-09-15

$23.48

$466,656,447,179

29 / 38

2026-09-16

$23.49

$466,773,918,073

29 / 38

2026-09-17

$23.49

$466,773,918,073

29 / 38

2026-09-18

$23.49

$466,773,918,073

29 / 38

2026-09-19

$23.49

$466,773,918,073

29 / 38

2026-09-20

$23.49

$466,773,918,073

29 / 38

2026-09-21

$23.49

$466,773,918,073

29 / 38

2026-09-22

$23.49

$466,773,918,073

29 / 38

2026-09-23

$23.48

$466,579,427,877

28 / 38

2026-09-24

$23.48

$466,579,427,877

28 / 38

2026-09-25

$23.48

$466,579,427,877

28 / 38

2026-09-26

$23.48

$466,579,427,877

28 / 38

2026-09-27

$23.48

$466,579,427,877

28 / 38

2026-09-28

$23.48

$466,579,427,877

28 / 38

2026-09-29

$23.48

$466,579,623,955

28 / 38

2026-09-30

$23.48

$466,579,623,955

28 / 38

2026-10-01

$23.48

$466,579,721,995

29 / 38

2026-10-02

$23.48

$466,621,329,838

29 / 39

2026-10-03

$23.48

$466,621,133,759

29 / 39

2026-10-04

$23.48

$466,621,133,759

29 / 39

2026-10-05

$23.48

$466,621,133,759

29 / 39

2026-10-06

$23.51

$467,269,663,171

29 / 39

2026-10-07

$23.50

$467,270,976,897

29 / 39

2026-10-08

$23.50

$467,270,976,897

29 / 39

2026-10-09

$23.50

$467,270,976,897

29 / 39

2026-10-10

$23.50

$467,270,976,897

29 / 39

2026-10-11

$23.51

$467,270,976,897

29 / 39

2026-10-12

$23.51

$467,270,976,897

29 / 39

2026-10-13

$23.50

$467,235,839,642

29 / 39

2026-10-14

$23.50

$467,235,839,642

29 / 39

2026-10-15

$23.50

$467,235,839,642

29 / 39

Microsoft (MSFT)

What could strengthen or challenge Microsoft’s outlook?

Living FV™

What performance would support the market price?

Operating margin

QuarterlyIQ assumptions

Operating estimates

What would close the gap?

Revenue and growth

Company initiatives in this report

Operating profitability

Company initiatives in this report

Capital and cash timing

Company initiatives in this report

Performance needed for a target price

What the Thesis Depends On

Incoming Evidence

Expectations trend

Outlook in Brief

What's improving

Still unresolved / key risks

Next proof point

Historical risk context

Microsoft outlook in detail

What kind of bet this is

What's priced into Microsoft

What the fundamentals likely do

What Microsoft hinges on

Bottom line

Analyst view

Price-target changes

Bottom line

Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	55	3
2026-06-01	54	3
2026-07-01	56	3
2026-08-01	54	3
2026-09-01	53	3
2026-10-01	55	3