Samsara Inc (IOT)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-15
$41.65-2.94%
Close 2026-09-15 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-15
Research Workspace
Put IOT beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Systems Software: fringe margins under pressure (2q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar broken — Net income grows from negative to positive $44.5M: EPS +0.2 vs target 0.7.
View ThesisMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 68% growth a year, above the roughly 23% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 3% on a typical day and fell roughly 46% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskIOT's growth momentum relies on sustaining strong revenue and ARR growth to justify its price. Revenue grew 30% year over year, and the last quarter beat expectations. It trades at 14× P/S versus a peer median of 4.5×, indicating the market prices in more growth than forecast. The primary risk is the potential for guidance cuts, with a 36% probability of a miss next quarter. Peer multiples imply a price about 72% below where it trades. The thesis has broken due to net income growing from negative to positive $44.5M, with EPS at 0.2 versus a target of 0.7.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-15. IOT is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 24 analysts currently covering IOT (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 12 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for IOT in the last 4 months.
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Compare IOT with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IOT Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-15. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Systems Software — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put IOT next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Sustain strong revenue and ARR growth
Hardware tax may hinder revenue and ARR growth.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-15. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $41.65
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $41.65.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Positive analyst target reflects confidence in growth.
Advances: Sustain strong revenue and ARR growth
Revenue guidance aligns with strong growth objectives.
Advances: Achieve and maintain GAAP profitability
Earnings call provides insights on profitability progress.
Advances: Expand gross profit margin
Operating leverage enhances gross profit margin potential.
Advances: Achieve profitability
Revenue projection and margin target align with profitability goal.