Samsara Inc (IOT)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-09
$38.65-3.74%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Net income grows from negative to positive $44.5M: EPS +0.2 vs target $44.5M net income.
Samsara grows revenue about 23% yearly, with $2.0B expected in FY27. Profit margins are improving, targeting 20% operating margin. Net income rose from -$22M to $44M in one year. The company shows strong execution and stable management.
The stock trades at a high price-to-earnings ratio of 58.6, above peers. If revenue growth slows below 15%, or profit margins shrink, the valuation may not hold. Elevated risk and stretched valuation could pressure returns.
The market prices about 23% revenue growth and a premium valuation 35% above our fair value near $27. We see growth justified but valuation stretched, requiring continued execution.
Breaks if: Gross profit falls below $300M in 2027-Q1
Breaks if: Net income remains negative or below $20M in 2027-Q1
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
IOT represents a durable compounder with a focus on achieving profitability and maintaining strong revenue growth. The current thesis state is stable, but recent earnings performance has raised some concerns.
The market seems to have priced in a premium compared to peers, reflecting expectations for continued growth and profitability. However, the valuation is considered expensive, indicating that investors may be anticipating strong future performance.
Management is on track to achieve its goals of GAAP profitability and strong revenue growth, as evidenced by recent results. However, there is an elevated risk due to a history of earnings misses, which could affect future performance.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain growth and profitability while navigating potential earnings guidance cuts. Additionally, external factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and the performance of major tech companies could significantly influence IOT's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum rose by 21.4 points (from 16.3 to 37.7).
Company quality rose by 11.6 points (from 50.5 to 62.1).
Confidence changed from 'medium' to 'high'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Revenue guidance aligns with strong growth objectives. Operating leverage enhances gross profit margin potential.
as of 2026-09-09
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Focus on achieving profitability through revenue growth and cost management.
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 15% in FY27
Focus on achieving profitability through revenue growth and cost management.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 15% in FY27
Focus on achieving profitability through revenue growth and cost management.
Overall, IOT's fundamentals are showing promise, but there are risks that could impact its performance in the near term. Not investment advice.
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.