Samsara Inc (IOT)

NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-23

$44.92+2.60%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Samsara Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.95 → 0.95 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q3
Revenue	$514M–$516M	515.22M
EPS	$0.18–$0.19non-GAAP	0.188
Operating margin	21%non-GAAP	—
Revenue growth	24%	—
Revenue growth (constant currency)	23%–24%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	$2.04B–$2.05B	2.05B
EPS	$0.76–$0.78non-GAAP	0.773
Operating margin	21%non-GAAP	—
Revenue growth	26%	—
Revenue growth (constant currency)	26%	—
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.45B
EPS	—	0.948

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Expand gross profit from $283.7M to $361.1M	A supporting condition in Samsara Inc's published investment case. The stated target is gross profit >= $361.1M.	Intact	Gross profit falls below $300M in 2027-Q1	Gross profit: $392.581M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: gross profit >= $361.1M. The stored target says 2027-Q1; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Sep 8, 2026392,581,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9db80cb8-0b27-41b5-b2c7-f1bef09036ff. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Non-GAAP operating margin improved from 19% in 2026-Q2 to 21% in 2026-Q3, and non-GAAP gross profit increased from $366.3M to $398.0M. The company is delivering on expanding gross profit and improving operating margin. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Net income grows from negative to positive $44.5M	Net income rose from -$22M to $44M in one year.	Broken	Net income remains negative or below $20M in 2027-Q1	Net income: $16.242M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income >= $44.5M. The stored target says 2027-Q1; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Sep 8, 202616,242,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9db80cb8-0b27-41b5-b2c7-f1bef09036ff. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve and sustain ~20% non-GAAP operating margin	Profit margins are improving, targeting 20% operating margin.	Improving	Operating margin falls below 15% in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near 23% YoY	A primary condition in Samsara Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=23% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 15% in FY27	Revenue growth: 29.88% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=23% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 8, 202629.8756 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9db80cb8-0b27-41b5-b2c7-f1bef09036ff. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$0.95

$0.91 → $0.95 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$2.45B

$2.41B → $2.45B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.91	$2,405,191,417	10 / 16
2026-07-25	$0.91	$2,405,191,417	10 / 16
2026-07-26	$0.91	$2,405,191,417	10 / 16
2026-07-27	$0.91	$2,405,569,080	10 / 16
2026-07-28	$0.91	$2,405,569,080	10 / 16
2026-07-29	$0.91	$2,405,569,080	10 / 16
2026-07-30	$0.91	$2,405,569,080	11 / 17
2026-07-31	$0.91	$2,405,569,080	11 / 17
2026-08-01	$0.91	$2,405,569,080	11 / 17
2026-08-02	$0.91	$2,405,569,080	11 / 17
2026-08-03	$0.91	$2,405,569,080	11 / 17
2026-08-04	$0.91	$2,405,569,080	11 / 17
2026-08-05	$0.91	$2,405,569,080	11 / 17
2026-08-06	$0.91	$2,405,569,080	11 / 17
2026-08-07	$0.91	$2,405,569,080	11 / 17
2026-08-08	$0.91	$2,405,569,080	11 / 17
2026-08-09	$0.91	$2,405,569,080	11 / 17
2026-08-10	$0.91	$2,405,569,080	11 / 17
2026-08-12	$0.91	$2,405,569,080	11 / 17
2026-08-13	$0.91	$2,405,569,080	11 / 17
2026-08-14	$0.91	$2,405,569,080	11 / 17
2026-08-15	$0.91	$2,405,569,080	11 / 17
2026-08-16	$0.91	$2,405,569,080	11 / 17
2026-08-17	$0.91	$2,405,569,080	11 / 17
2026-08-18	$0.91	$2,405,569,080	11 / 17
2026-08-19	$0.91	$2,405,569,080	11 / 17
2026-08-20	$0.91	$2,405,693,025	11 / 17
2026-08-21	$0.91	$2,405,693,025	11 / 17
2026-08-22	$0.91	$2,405,693,025	11 / 17
2026-08-23	$0.91	$2,405,693,025	11 / 17
2026-08-24	$0.91	$2,405,692,899	11 / 17
2026-08-25	$0.90	$2,405,692,899	11 / 17
2026-08-26	$0.90	$2,405,691,990	11 / 17
2026-08-27	$0.90	$2,405,691,990	11 / 17
2026-08-28	$0.90	$2,405,691,990	11 / 17
2026-08-29	$0.91	$2,405,691,990	11 / 17
2026-08-30	$0.91	$2,405,691,990	11 / 17
2026-08-31	$0.91	$2,405,691,990	11 / 17
2026-09-01	$0.91	$2,405,691,990	11 / 17
2026-09-02	$0.91	$2,405,691,990	11 / 17
2026-09-03	$0.91	$2,405,691,990	11 / 17
2026-09-04	$0.94	$2,429,302,047	11 / 17
2026-09-05	$0.95	$2,445,015,982	12 / 17
2026-09-06	$0.95	$2,445,015,982	11 / 17
2026-09-07	$0.95	$2,445,015,982	11 / 17
2026-09-08	$0.95	$2,445,015,982	11 / 17
2026-09-09	$0.95	$2,445,015,982	11 / 17
2026-09-10	$0.95	$2,445,015,982	11 / 17
2026-09-11	$0.95	$2,445,015,982	11 / 17
2026-09-12	$0.95	$2,445,015,982	11 / 17
2026-09-13	$0.95	$2,445,015,982	11 / 17
2026-09-14	$0.95	$2,445,015,982	11 / 17
2026-09-15	$0.95	$2,445,820,409	11 / 17
2026-09-16	$0.95	$2,445,820,409	12 / 18
2026-09-17	$0.95	$2,448,559,539	12 / 18
2026-09-18	$0.95	$2,448,559,539	12 / 18
2026-09-19	$0.95	$2,448,559,539	12 / 18
2026-09-20	$0.95	$2,448,559,539	12 / 18
2026-09-21	$0.95	$2,448,559,539	12 / 18
2026-09-22	$0.95	$2,448,559,539	12 / 18
2026-09-23	$0.95	$2,448,559,539	12 / 18
2026-09-24	$0.95	$2,448,559,539	12 / 18
2026-09-25	$0.95	$2,448,558,765	12 / 18
2026-09-26	$0.95	$2,448,558,765	12 / 18
2026-09-27	$0.95	$2,448,558,765	12 / 18
2026-09-28	$0.95	$2,448,558,765	12 / 18
2026-09-29	$0.95	$2,448,558,765	12 / 18
2026-09-30	$0.95	$2,448,558,765	12 / 18
2026-10-01	$0.95	$2,448,558,765	12 / 18
2026-10-02	$0.95	$2,448,558,765	12 / 18
2026-10-03	$0.95	$2,448,558,765	12 / 18
2026-10-04	$0.95	$2,448,558,765	12 / 18
2026-10-05	$0.95	$2,448,558,765	12 / 18
2026-10-06	$0.95	$2,448,993,775	12 / 19
2026-10-07	$0.95	$2,448,993,775	12 / 19
2026-10-08	$0.95	$2,448,993,775	12 / 19
2026-10-09	$0.95	$2,448,993,775	12 / 19
2026-10-10	$0.95	$2,448,993,775	12 / 19
2026-10-11	$0.95	$2,448,993,775	12 / 19
2026-10-12	$0.95	$2,448,993,775	12 / 19
2026-10-13	$0.95	$2,448,993,775	12 / 19
2026-10-14	$0.95	$2,448,993,775	12 / 19
2026-10-15	$0.95	$2,448,993,775	12 / 19
2026-10-16	$0.95	$2,448,993,775	12 / 19
2026-10-17	$0.95	$2,448,993,775	12 / 19
2026-10-18	$0.95	$2,448,993,775	12 / 19
2026-10-19	$0.95	$2,448,993,775	12 / 19
2026-10-20	$0.95	$2,448,993,775	12 / 19
2026-10-21	$0.95	$2,448,993,775	12 / 19
2026-10-22	$0.95	$2,448,993,775	12 / 19
2026-10-23	$0.95	$2,448,993,775	12 / 19
2026-10-24	$0.95	$2,448,993,775	12 / 19

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	18	5
2026-06-01	17	5
2026-07-01	18	5
2026-08-01	19	6
2026-09-01	19	6
2026-10-01	20	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 4

$50.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$27.50$55.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Expand gross profit from $283.7M to $361.1MGross profit: $392.581M
Net income grows from negative to positive $44.5MPublished status: Broken
Achieve and sustain ~20% non-GAAP operating marginDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Sustain revenue growth near 23% YoYPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Dec 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-46.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Samsara Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

IOT is a growth-oriented technology business whose long-term thesis depends on sustaining strong revenue and annual recurring revenue growth while reaching durable GAAP profitability. The thesis is intact, with recent financial performance strong, though risk is elevated and the evidence still characterizes earnings quality as loss-making.

What's priced into Samsara Inc

The valuation is expensive versus peers, with the evidence pointing to a meaningful expectations gap and optionality as a factor in the valuation difference. The model has low confidence, and the priced-in fragility assessment is low because the concern is expensive valuation alone, not a combination of weak fundamentals and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results show revenue rising from $478.8 million to $508.4 million, annual recurring revenue growing 30% year over year, and non-GAAP operating margin improving from 19% to 21%. Management has maintained GAAP profitability for four consecutive quarters, though GAAP EPS declined between the last two reported quarters; a guidance cut would be a meaningful risk, especially given past guidance misses.

What Samsara Inc hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on continued revenue and annual recurring revenue growth, improving margins, and sustained GAAP profitability. A guidance cut would weaken the case, while Fed rate cuts or continued strong results and guidance from large technology companies could support the sector backdrop.