Reading MDB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MDB free→Reading MDB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MDB free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Compared with sector peers, MDB is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 156% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $354.18. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $354 MDB trades at 13× p/s — 2.6× the 5× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $135 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $300–$515. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 163% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 26%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted -20.52x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.28 → $1.61 (+25.9% / 30d). 34 raised, 0 cut, 36 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 25 maintained. 76% of analysts rate Buy.
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 20.2% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$245.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$560.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,872.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth slows, it could hurt MongoDB's performance. This trend affects overall investor confidence.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below its median, confirming a slowdown.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is still above average. This shows that it is strong.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MDB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 28, 2026, MongoDB, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended April 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8‑K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as a…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$300.00 – $515.00 (median $380.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-06-02
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Systems Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MDB MONGODB, INC. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MSFT Microsoft | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | full | moderate |
PANW Palo Alto Networks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRWD CrowdStrike | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FTNT Fortinet | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims for revenue between $2.92 billion and $2.96 billion for fiscal 2027.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $478.1M in 2025-Q2 to $687.6M in 2027-Q1. The trajectory shows delivering growth, aligning with the fiscal 2027 revenue target of $2.92B to $2.96B.
“Revenues are expected to be in the range of: $2.92 billion to $2.96 billion.”
“Revenues are expected to be in the range of: $2.860 billion to $2.900 billion.”
Management expects revenue between $729 million and $734 million for 2027-Q2.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Revenue was $687.6M in 2027-Q1. The guidance for 2027-Q2 indicates an expected increase, aligning with the growth trajectory.
Management projects EPS between $0.15 and $0.39 for fiscal 2027.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Diluted EPS was $0.05 in 2027-Q1. The fiscal 2027 EPS guidance suggests an expected improvement, aligning with management's growth focus.
“Net Income (Loss) per Share is expected to be in the range of: $0.15 to $0.39.”
Why it matters: This report will show if MongoDB's growth is still strong or slowing down. Investors will look closely at revenue and profit trends.
Confirms one read:Revenue growth exceeds 20% year over year, indicating strong demand.
Confirms the other:Revenue growth drops below 10% year over year, signaling potential issues.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Departure of President, Field Operations On February 27, 2026, Cedric Pech, the Company’s President, Field Operations, notified the Company of his intent to resign, effective April 15, 2026 (the “Separation Date”). In connection with Mr. Pech’s resignation, the Company has entered into a separation agreement (the “Separation Agreement”) with Mr. Pe…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 2, 2026, MongoDB, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended January 31 , 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8‑K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934,…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is a replacement of the Exhibit furnished on the Original Form 8-K. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or subject to the liabilities of that section. The information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On December 1, 2025, MongoDB, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended October 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8‑K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934…
“Revenues are expected to be in the range of: $729 million to $734 million.”