MONGODB, INC. (MDB)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-09

$358.38+0.67%

Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change

Standing thesis

The standing, falsifiable read: what has to stay true, and what would break it.

Secular growth

Intact: The reason to own it still holds.

The bull case

MongoDB grows revenue to about $2.94 billion in fiscal 2027. Next quarter revenue should be about $731 million. Earnings per share may rise to about $0.27 in fiscal 2027. New AI data platform features support this growth.

The bear case

MongoDB is loss-making and faces profit pressure. The CFO and CEO changes may hurt execution. Earnings missed recently, showing risks to growth and profits.

What's priced in

The price is about 15% above our fair value near $314. Analysts expect about 20% revenue growth. Our fair value is 21% below the Street median, so weigh the Street range carefully.

What has to stay true

Earnings per share rise to about $0.27 in fiscal 2027Intact
Management Executionprimary~$0.27 per share · fiscal 2027 (guidance)
Breaks if: EPS falls below $0.15 per share in fiscal 2027
Revenue grows to about $731 million in fiscal Q2 2027Intact
Revenue Growthsupporting~$731 million · fiscal Q2 2027 (qualitative)
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $729 million in fiscal Q2 2027
Revenue grows to about $2.94 billion in fiscal 2027Intact
Revenue Growthprimary~$2.94 billion · fiscal 2027 (qualitative)
Revenue falls below $2.92 billion in fiscal 2027

Source: QuarterlyIQ research model· Written 2026-07-08· Health checked 2026-09-09· Version 1· Status: Intact· Reviewed when the evidence changes

This is not a price target or investment advice.

Current Outlook

Week of Sep 5, 2026

A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.

MDB's long-term thesis reflects stable management and improving profitability amidst elevated risks.

What kind of bet this is

MDB is positioned as a growth-oriented tech company focusing on revenue expansion and AI capabilities. The current thesis state indicates a cautious watch due to mixed recent performance and elevated risk factors.

What's priced into MONGODB, INC. (MDB)

The market appears to have priced in a durable premium compared to peers, suggesting that expectations are aligned with MDB's recent performance. There is a low expectations gap, indicating that current valuations are justified given the company's fundamentals.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to drive strong revenue growth, as evidenced by a significant year-over-year increase. However, the company remains loss-making, and while profitability is improving, recent earnings surprises have been erratic.

What MONGODB, INC. (MDB) hinges on

The thesis hinges on key factors such as the Fed's interest rate decisions and the performance of major tech sector players. A credibility hit from any guidance cuts would negatively impact sentiment.

What changed in the latest read

What changed

The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.

Short-term · Daily

No material changes since the prior snapshot.

Yes, our read has weakened. MongoDB's stock fell sharply, indicating a potential repricing. The company raised its full-year growth expectation to about 27%. This is 300 basis points higher than previous guidance. Analysts expect Atlas revenue growth to exceed company guidance. This reflects a positive outlook for revenue growth in fiscal 2027.

as of 2026-09-09

See upcoming information that could change the risk

Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.