MONGODB, INC. (MDB)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-23

$371.09+2.44%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge MONGODB, INC.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.82 → 7.90 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 21 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 21 to 21; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q3
Revenue	$756M–$761M	762.56M
EPS	$1.57–$1.61non-GAAP $0–$0.05GAAP	1.612
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	$2.99B–$3.03B	3.02B
EPS	$0.53–$0.77GAAP $6.39–$6.58non-GAAP	6.559
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.61B
EPS	—	7.896

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Earnings per share rise to about $0.27 in fiscal 2027	Earnings per share may rise to about $0.27 in fiscal 2027.	Intact	EPS falls below $0.15 per share in fiscal 2027	Diluted EPS: $0.50 per share FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$0.27 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 1, 20260.5 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 03dea31d-6c36-4c10-8b3d-9aa75310489d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to about $731 million in fiscal Q2 2027	MongoDB grows revenue to about $2.94 billion in fiscal 2027.	Intact	Revenue falls below $729 million in fiscal Q2 2027	Revenue: $771.773M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$731 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 1, 2026771,773,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 03dea31d-6c36-4c10-8b3d-9aa75310489d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to about $2.94 billion in fiscal 2027	MongoDB grows revenue to about $2.94 billion in fiscal 2027.	Intact	Revenue falls below $2.92 billion in fiscal 2027	Revenue: $771.773M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.94 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 1, 2026771,773,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 03dea31d-6c36-4c10-8b3d-9aa75310489d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$7.90

$7.32 → $7.90 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$3.61B

$3.50B → $3.61B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.32	$3,496,344,772	20 / 27
2026-07-25	$7.32	$3,496,344,772	20 / 27
2026-07-26	$7.32	$3,496,344,548	20 / 27
2026-07-27	$7.32	$3,496,344,548	20 / 27
2026-07-28	$7.32	$3,496,344,548	20 / 27
2026-07-29	$7.32	$3,496,344,557	20 / 27
2026-07-30	$7.32	$3,496,344,557	20 / 27
2026-07-31	$7.32	$3,496,344,557	20 / 27
2026-08-01	$7.32	$3,496,344,557	20 / 27
2026-08-02	$7.32	$3,496,344,557	20 / 27
2026-08-03	$7.32	$3,496,344,557	20 / 27
2026-08-04	$7.32	$3,496,344,557	20 / 27
2026-08-05	$7.32	$3,496,344,557	20 / 27
2026-08-06	$7.32	$3,496,344,557	20 / 27
2026-08-07	$7.32	$3,496,358,963	20 / 27
2026-08-08	$7.32	$3,496,358,963	20 / 27
2026-08-09	$7.32	$3,496,358,963	20 / 27
2026-08-10	$7.32	$3,496,358,963	20 / 27
2026-08-12	$7.32	$3,496,358,963	20 / 27
2026-08-13	$7.32	$3,496,358,963	20 / 27
2026-08-14	$7.32	$3,496,358,963	20 / 27
2026-08-15	$7.32	$3,496,358,963	20 / 27
2026-08-16	$7.32	$3,496,358,963	20 / 27
2026-08-17	$7.32	$3,496,358,963	20 / 27
2026-08-18	$7.32	$3,496,358,963	20 / 27
2026-08-19	$7.32	$3,496,358,963	20 / 27
2026-08-20	$7.32	$3,497,369,543	21 / 27
2026-08-21	$7.32	$3,497,381,428	21 / 27
2026-08-22	$7.32	$3,497,381,428	21 / 27
2026-08-23	$7.32	$3,496,624,816	21 / 28
2026-08-24	$7.32	$3,496,624,816	21 / 28
2026-08-25	$7.33	$3,496,588,684	21 / 28
2026-08-26	$7.33	$3,496,474,399	21 / 28
2026-08-27	$7.33	$3,496,474,399	21 / 28
2026-08-28	$7.33	$3,496,474,399	21 / 28
2026-08-29	$7.33	$3,496,588,684	21 / 28
2026-08-30	$7.33	$3,496,588,684	21 / 28
2026-08-31	$7.33	$3,496,588,684	21 / 28
2026-09-01	$7.33	$3,496,588,684	21 / 28
2026-09-02	$7.55	$3,541,316,179	21 / 27
2026-09-03	$7.76	$3,580,201,421	21 / 28
2026-09-04	$7.76	$3,582,182,699	21 / 28
2026-09-05	$7.76	$3,582,182,699	21 / 28
2026-09-06	$7.76	$3,582,182,699	21 / 28
2026-09-07	$7.76	$3,582,182,699	21 / 28
2026-09-08	$7.78	$3,585,607,919	21 / 28
2026-09-09	$7.78	$3,585,607,919	21 / 28
2026-09-10	$7.80	$3,583,178,740	21 / 28
2026-09-11	$7.81	$3,583,178,740	21 / 28
2026-09-12	$7.82	$3,583,502,269	21 / 28
2026-09-13	$7.82	$3,583,502,269	21 / 28
2026-09-14	$7.82	$3,583,502,269	21 / 28
2026-09-15	$7.82	$3,583,509,413	21 / 28
2026-09-16	$7.82	$3,583,509,413	21 / 28
2026-09-17	$7.82	$3,583,515,043	21 / 28
2026-09-18	$7.82	$3,583,515,043	21 / 28
2026-09-19	$7.82	$3,583,515,043	21 / 28
2026-09-20	$7.82	$3,583,515,043	21 / 28
2026-09-21	$7.82	$3,583,515,813	21 / 28
2026-09-22	$7.82	$3,583,515,813	21 / 28
2026-09-23	$7.82	$3,583,515,813	21 / 28
2026-09-24	$7.82	$3,583,515,813	21 / 28
2026-09-25	$7.82	$3,583,515,813	21 / 28
2026-09-26	$7.82	$3,583,515,813	21 / 28
2026-09-27	$7.82	$3,583,515,813	21 / 28
2026-09-28	$7.82	$3,583,515,813	21 / 28
2026-09-29	$7.82	$3,583,515,813	21 / 28
2026-09-30	$7.82	$3,583,515,813	21 / 28
2026-10-01	$7.86	$3,606,722,277	21 / 27
2026-10-02	$7.88	$3,609,251,689	21 / 28
2026-10-03	$7.88	$3,609,250,918	21 / 28
2026-10-04	$7.88	$3,609,250,918	21 / 28
2026-10-05	$7.88	$3,609,250,918	21 / 28
2026-10-06	$7.88	$3,609,250,918	21 / 28
2026-10-07	$7.88	$3,609,250,918	21 / 28
2026-10-08	$7.88	$3,609,259,330	21 / 28
2026-10-09	$7.88	$3,609,259,330	21 / 28
2026-10-10	$7.88	$3,609,259,330	21 / 28
2026-10-11	$7.88	$3,609,259,330	21 / 28
2026-10-12	$7.88	$3,609,259,330	21 / 28
2026-10-13	$7.88	$3,609,259,330	21 / 27
2026-10-14	$7.90	$3,612,500,270	21 / 27
2026-10-15	$7.90	$3,612,500,270	21 / 27
2026-10-16	$7.90	$3,612,500,270	21 / 27
2026-10-17	$7.90	$3,612,500,270	21 / 27
2026-10-18	$7.90	$3,612,500,270	21 / 27
2026-10-19	$7.90	$3,612,500,270	21 / 27
2026-10-20	$7.90	$3,612,500,270	21 / 27
2026-10-21	$7.90	$3,612,500,271	21 / 27
2026-10-22	$7.90	$3,612,500,271	21 / 27
2026-10-23	$7.90	$3,612,500,271	21 / 27
2026-10-24	$7.90	$3,612,500,271	21 / 27

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	31	9	0
2026-06-01	32	9	1
2026-07-01	31	9	0
2026-08-01	32	9	1
2026-09-01	32	9	1
2026-10-01	32	9	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 32 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades16 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 16 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

ScotiabankOct 8

$450.00New observation · no comparable prior

Stifel NicolausSep 30 · prior Sep 2

$465.00 → $385.00-17.2%

Piper SandlerSep 30

$470.00New observation · no comparable prior

D.A. DavidsonSep 30

$415.00New observation · no comparable prior

BMO CapitalSep 30

$420.00New observation · no comparable prior

Mizuho SecuritiesSep 29

$460.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$258.50$517.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 5 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Earnings per share rise to about $0.27 in fiscal 2027Diluted EPS: $0.50 per share
Revenue grows to about $731 million in fiscal Q2 2027Revenue: $771.773M
Revenue grows to about $2.94 billion in fiscal 2027Revenue: $771.773M

Next proof point

Dec 7, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-48.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

MONGODB, INC. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MDB is a high-growth software business with improving operating leverage, meaning revenue is growing faster than operating costs. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: momentum has improved, but recent performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into MONGODB, INC.

The valuation carries a durable premium of 2.64 times peers, and the expectations gap is slightly negative. The evidence labels that premium justified, but model confidence is low, so the valuation case is uncertain.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and profitability have strengthened: the latest reported quarter showed 30% year-over-year revenue growth, higher operating margin, and nearly doubled free cash flow from the year-earlier quarter. Management has raised fiscal 2027 guidance, but earnings surprises have been erratic and trending down, and the recent CEO transition adds uncertainty.

What MONGODB, INC. hinges on

Over the next several quarters, the thesis depends on MDB sustaining growth and improving profitability while delivering on its raised guidance. A guidance reversal would damage management credibility; continued strength from major technology companies or lower interest rates could support the sector backdrop, but these are external factors.