Twilio (TWLO)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-30
$205.03-15.24%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-30
Research Workspace
Put TWLO beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Systems Software: fringe margins under pressure (2q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Non-GAAP operating income near $1.09B in 2026: Comparison needs review.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 19% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 32% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskTwilio’s AI conversation layer must sustain revenue growth to support its growth case. Revenue growth eased from 22% to 20% year over year in Q3 2026. Q3 non-GAAP earnings beat consensus, though the quarter’s revenue growth was slower than the prior quarter. TWLO trades at 50× P/E versus a 47× peer median; expectations look modest versus our view. The specific risk is disappointing fourth-quarter growth guidance, followed by another miss. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 23%. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% below where it trades; this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. TWLO is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 31 analysts currently covering TWLO (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 14 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for TWLO in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare TWLO with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TWLO Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Systems Software — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put TWLO next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
A stated 2027 organic growth target supports revenue growth and AI-era infrastructure objectives.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $205.03
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $205.03.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Threatens: Increase revenue growth
A 15% decline after disappointing growth guidance signals meaningful risk to revenue-growth expectations.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
Optimism around AI agents supports revenue growth potential.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
AI growth potential aligns with revenue growth objectives.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
AI expansion in Latin America boosts revenue growth potential.
Threatens: Increase revenue growth
Rating downgrade indicates potential revenue growth concerns.
Advances: Improve operating income
AI demand and margin expansion support operating income improvement.
Advances: Improve operating income
Hidden profit lever could enhance operating income.