Reading TWLO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, TWLO is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 50% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $202.03. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $202 the market pays 63× p/e — above the 28× p/e peer median but in line with its own 56× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $130 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $155–$255. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 55% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 9.27x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.32 → $1.32 (+0.4% / 30d). 18 raised, 6 cut, 27 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 77% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.0% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$201.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$517.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,034.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Lower revenue growth means it may be hard to keep growing.
Confirms:Q2 revenue guidance comes in below 15.5% year-over-year growth.
Disproves:Q2 revenue guidance meets or exceeds 15.5% year-over-year growth.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TWLO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, unless expressly incorporated by specific reference in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$155.00 – $255.00 (median $200.00) · 16 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Systems Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TWLO Twilio | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MSFT Microsoft | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | full | moderate |
PANW Palo Alto Networks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRWD CrowdStrike | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FTNT Fortinet | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 21.5% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on raising the revenue growth rate to 14% to 15% for 2026.
Enhance operating income with a focus on increasing non-GAAP income from operations.
Focus on improving gross profit margins through operational efficiencies.
Why it matters: Twilio made over $100M in operating income. This shows it is managing costs better.
Confirms:In Q2, operating income was over $100M.
Disproves:In Q2, operating income was below $100M.
Why it matters: Lower income suggests it may be hard to control costs and make money.
Confirms:Non-GAAP income from operations in Q2 is below $250 million.
Disproves:Non-GAAP income from operations in Q2 meets or exceeds $250 million.
Why it matters: Improving gross profit matters. A higher margin shows better efficiency.
Confirms:Gross profit margin reported above 60% in Q2.
Disproves:Gross profit margin reported below 60% in Q2.
Why it matters: Making more money is important. A good change would mean better cost control.
Confirms:Operating income is up compared to last year in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income declines or remains flat year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: A drop in this rate may show fewer customers are staying or buying more.
Confirms:Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate is now below 110%.
Disproves:Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate remains at or above 110%.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of New Director On March 24, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Twilio Inc. (the “Company”), upon the recommendation of its Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, appointed Doug Robinson to the Board, effective immediately. Mr. Robinson will serve as a Class I director until the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockh…
and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, unless expressly incorporated by specific reference in such filing.