Twilio (TWLO)

NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-23

$261.79+3.22%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Twilio’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.78 → 6.79 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 18 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
EPS	$1.42–$1.47non-GAAP	—
Organic revenue growth	11%–12%	—
Revenue growth	16%–16.5%	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.58B
EPS	—	1.489
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	6B
EPS	—	5.931
Free cash flow	$1.14B–$1.16B	—
Organic revenue growth	13%–13.5%	—
Revenue growth	18%–18.5%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	6.7B
EPS	—	6.788

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow near $1.09B in 2026	Free cash flow is expected near $1.09B for 2026.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $1.05B in FY26	Free cash flow: $358.742M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $1.08B to $1.10B FCF. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026358,742,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross profit improvement via operational efficiencies	A supporting condition in Twilio's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain or improve gross profit above $684M quarterly.	Intact	Gross profit falls below $630M quarterly	Gross profit: $725.866M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Sustain or improve gross profit above $684M quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026725,866,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e90d1052-db32-40b7-9af7-cd846e1827c3. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Non-GAAP operating income near $1.09B in 2026	Operating income rose strongly to $107.67M in Q1.	Broken	Operating income falls below $1.05B in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth rate of 14% to 15% in 2026	A primary condition in Twilio's published investment case. The stated target is 14% to 15% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 13% in FY26	Revenue growth: 22.03% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 14% to 15% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 202622.033417 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e90d1052-db32-40b7-9af7-cd846e1827c3. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.30 billion in 2025-Q3 to $1.50 billion in 2026-Q2, a 22% year-over-year increase reported in 2026-Q2. Organic revenue growth also accelerated to 17% in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering consistent strong growth as management emphasized. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.79

$6.65 → $6.79 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.70B

$6.39B → $6.70B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.65	$6,389,627,690	32 / 31
2026-07-25	$6.65	$6,389,627,690	32 / 31
2026-07-26	$6.65	$6,412,809,493	18 / 24
2026-07-27	$6.65	$6,389,627,690	32 / 31
2026-07-28	$6.65	$6,412,809,493	18 / 24
2026-07-29	$6.65	$6,412,809,479	18 / 24
2026-07-30	$6.65	$6,389,627,690	32 / 31
2026-07-31	$6.65	$6,412,809,479	18 / 24
2026-08-01	$6.65	$6,412,809,479	18 / 24
2026-08-02	$6.65	$6,389,627,690	32 / 31
2026-08-03	$6.65	$6,389,627,690	32 / 31
2026-08-04	$6.65	$6,412,809,479	18 / 24
2026-08-05	$6.65	$6,389,627,690	32 / 31
2026-08-06	$6.65	$6,412,809,479	18 / 24
2026-08-08	$6.65	$6,412,809,479	18 / 24
2026-08-09	$6.67	$6,460,764,480	32 / 31
2026-08-10	$6.65	$6,412,809,479	18 / 24
2026-08-12	$6.65	$6,412,809,479	18 / 24
2026-08-13	$6.79	$6,634,624,830	32 / 31
2026-08-14	$6.65	$6,412,809,479	18 / 24
2026-08-15	$6.65	$6,412,809,479	18 / 24
2026-08-16	$6.65	$6,412,809,479	18 / 24
2026-08-17	$6.65	$6,412,809,479	18 / 24
2026-08-18	$6.65	$6,412,809,479	18 / 24
2026-08-19	$6.65	$6,412,809,479	18 / 24
2026-08-20	$6.79	$6,694,214,369	18 / 24
2026-08-21	$6.79	$6,694,214,369	18 / 24
2026-08-22	$6.79	$6,694,214,369	18 / 24
2026-08-23	$6.79	$6,694,214,369	18 / 24
2026-08-24	$6.79	$6,694,214,369	18 / 24
2026-08-25	$6.79	$6,694,214,369	18 / 24
2026-08-26	$6.79	$6,694,214,369	17 / 24
2026-08-27	$6.79	$6,694,214,369	17 / 24
2026-08-28	$6.79	$6,694,214,369	17 / 24
2026-08-29	$6.79	$6,686,753,162	17 / 24
2026-08-30	$6.79	$6,686,753,162	17 / 24
2026-08-31	$6.79	$6,686,753,162	17 / 24
2026-09-01	$6.79	$6,686,753,162	17 / 24
2026-09-02	$6.79	$6,686,753,162	17 / 24
2026-09-03	$6.79	$6,686,753,162	17 / 23
2026-09-04	$6.79	$6,686,753,162	17 / 23
2026-09-05	$6.79	$6,686,753,162	17 / 23
2026-09-06	$6.79	$6,686,753,162	17 / 23
2026-09-07	$6.79	$6,686,753,162	17 / 23
2026-09-08	$6.79	$6,686,753,162	17 / 23
2026-09-09	$6.79	$6,686,753,162	17 / 23
2026-09-10	$6.79	$6,686,753,162	17 / 23
2026-09-11	$6.79	$6,686,753,162	17 / 23
2026-09-12	$6.79	$6,686,753,162	17 / 23
2026-09-13	$6.79	$6,686,753,162	17 / 23
2026-09-14	$6.79	$6,686,753,162	17 / 23
2026-09-15	$6.79	$6,688,580,638	17 / 23
2026-09-16	$6.79	$6,688,580,644	17 / 22
2026-09-17	$6.79	$6,688,580,644	17 / 22
2026-09-18	$6.79	$6,688,580,644	17 / 22
2026-09-19	$6.79	$6,688,580,644	17 / 22
2026-09-20	$6.78	$6,689,932,206	17 / 22
2026-09-21	$6.78	$6,689,932,206	17 / 22
2026-09-22	$6.78	$6,689,932,206	17 / 22
2026-09-23	$6.78	$6,689,932,028	17 / 22
2026-09-24	$6.78	$6,689,932,028	17 / 22
2026-09-25	$6.78	$6,689,932,028	17 / 22
2026-09-26	$6.78	$6,689,932,028	17 / 22
2026-09-27	$6.78	$6,689,932,028	17 / 22
2026-09-28	$6.78	$6,689,932,028	17 / 22
2026-09-29	$6.78	$6,689,932,028	17 / 22
2026-09-30	$6.78	$6,689,932,028	17 / 22
2026-10-01	$6.78	$6,689,932,028	17 / 22
2026-10-02	$6.78	$6,689,932,028	17 / 22
2026-10-03	$6.78	$6,689,932,028	17 / 22
2026-10-04	$6.78	$6,689,932,028	17 / 22
2026-10-05	$6.78	$6,689,932,028	17 / 22
2026-10-06	$6.78	$6,689,932,028	17 / 22
2026-10-07	$6.78	$6,689,932,028	17 / 22
2026-10-08	$6.78	$6,689,931,203	17 / 22
2026-10-09	$6.79	$6,695,905,175	17 / 22
2026-10-10	$6.79	$6,695,905,175	17 / 22
2026-10-11	$6.79	$6,695,905,175	17 / 22
2026-10-12	$6.79	$6,695,905,175	17 / 22
2026-10-13	$6.79	$6,695,905,175	17 / 22
2026-10-14	$6.79	$6,695,905,175	17 / 22
2026-10-15	$6.79	$6,695,905,175	17 / 22
2026-10-16	$6.79	$6,695,905,354	17 / 23
2026-10-17	$6.79	$6,695,905,354	17 / 23
2026-10-18	$6.79	$6,695,905,283	18 / 23
2026-10-19	$6.79	$6,695,905,283	18 / 23
2026-10-20	$6.79	$6,695,905,283	18 / 23
2026-10-21	$6.79	$6,695,905,283	18 / 23
2026-10-22	$6.79	$6,702,791,948	18 / 23
2026-10-23	$6.79	$6,702,620,519	18 / 23
2026-10-24	$6.79	$6,702,620,519	18 / 23

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	22	6	2
2026-06-01	24	5	2
2026-07-01	26	5	2
2026-08-01	26	5	2
2026-09-01	26	4	2
2026-10-01	25	4	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 25 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

OppenheimerOct 21 · prior May 18

$235.00 → $325.00+38.3%

BTIGOct 16 · prior Jul 28

$245.00 → $315.00+28.6%

Stifel NicolausOct 14 · prior Aug 7

$275.00 → $325.00+18.2%

$0$178.75$357.50

3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow near $1.09B in 2026Free cash flow: $358.742M
Gross profit improvement via operational efficienciesGross profit: $725.866M
Non-GAAP operating income near $1.09B in 2026Published status: Broken
Revenue growth rate of 14% to 15% in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-24.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Twilio outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented technology business with improving profitability, but its earnings quality is still classified as loss-making and its risk is elevated. The multi-year view is intact, supported by strong recent results and stable management, while the recent decline in company momentum is a caution.

What's priced into Twilio

The valuation is described as justified, with no material expectations gap in the evidence, but TWLO carries a 1.45-times premium versus peers. The available evidence points to valuation being supported by current expectations rather than clear mispricing; confidence in that assessment is medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results show strong revenue growth, higher operating income, and improved free cash flow, with management’s stated priorities on track. However, momentum has weakened, and the evidence flags a history of a deep earnings miss and a downward trend in earnings surprises, despite a low current miss-risk reading.

What Twilio hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether management sustains growth and profitability without reversing its recently raised guidance, since a cut could damage credibility. Rate cuts or continued strength from large technology peers could support the sector backdrop, but these are external factors rather than proof of TWLO’s execution.