Reading NTNX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NTNX free→Reading NTNX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NTNX free→
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind, with NTNX compared to sector peers being above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends from major companies like MSFT and ORCL. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $48.32. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $49 NTNX trades at 27× p/e, below its 28× p/e peer median. Our $52 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $43–$62. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 6% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 4.20x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.50 → $0.49 (-3.2% / 30d). 4 raised, 12 cut, 16 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 11 maintained. 53% of analysts rate Buy.
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 20.5% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$171.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$550.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,758.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This will show if Nutanix can keep its revenue growth momentum. A drop below 10% signals a slowdown.
Confirms:Q4 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q4 revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
Price target increase indicates strong demand.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise be subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the rules and regulations of the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) thereunder, or the Ex…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$43.00 – $62.00 (median $55.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-05-28
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Systems Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NTNX Nutanix | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | elevated |
MSFT Microsoft | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PANW Palo Alto Networks | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 25 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRWD CrowdStrike | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FTNT Fortinet | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on driving sustainable growth and improving profitability through strategic initiatives.
Focus on improving free cash flow performance as a key financial metric.
Expand the share repurchase program with an additional $750 million authorization.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Improve operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Why it matters: Lower guidance means demand is weak. This could make investors less confident.
Confirms:Q4 revenue guidance below $725 million.
Disproves:Q4 revenue guidance above $745 million.
Why it matters: Steady ARR growth shows strong demand for Nutanix's services.
Confirms:ARR growth exceeds 15% YoY in Q3.
Disproves:ARR growth falls below 15% YoY in Q3.
Why it matters: Confirming the earnings beat will help investor confidence and growth.
Confirms:Earnings report confirms the earnings beat from May 27, 2026.
Disproves:Earnings report shows results that are below expectations.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if Nutanix can maintain growth despite supply chain issues.
Confirms one read:Q3 revenue guidance meets or exceeds $690 million.
Confirms the other:Q3 revenue guidance falls below $680 million.
Why it matters: A drop would indicate cash generation issues, impacting growth plans.
Confirms:Free cash flow reported below $760 million.
Disproves:Free cash flow exceeds $780 million.
Why it matters: This shows how well Nutanix is managing costs. Lower growth could hurt future profitability.
Confirms:Operating income growth is below 15% compared to last year.
Disproves:Operating income growth is above 15% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is key to sustaining growth and returning capital to shareholders.
Confirms one read:Free cash flow exceeds $197 million in Q3.
Confirms the other:Free cash flow falls below $197 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Updates will show how Nutanix is managing its resources. Poor allocation could limit growth.
Confirms one read:New investments or partnerships will be announced.
Confirms the other:There are no updates or bad news on capital allocation.
Why it matters: Updates could signal confidence in financial health and support stock price.
Confirms:They announced new share buybacks.
Disproves:No updates on the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Share buybacks mean that management trusts the company's future.
Confirms:Nutanix announces a share repurchase of at least $100 million.
Disproves:No share buybacks are announced in the next quarter.
Advances: Increase revenue growth
Earnings exceed forecasts; positive growth signal.
Threatens: Increase revenue growth
Earnings dip despite exceeding forecasts; concerns arise.
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. On May 4, 2026, Nutanix, Inc. (the “ Company ”) completed the issuance and sale of 4,136,789 shares of Class A common stock of the Company, $0.000025 par value per share (the “ Shares ”), to Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (“ AMD ”) at a purchase price of $36.26 per share, representing an aggregate purchase price in cash of approximately $150 million. The issuance and sale of the Shares were undertaken pursuant to a Stock Purchase Agreement dated February…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On April 7, 2026, Nutanix, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors has authorized an increase of $750 million under the Company’s existing share repurchase program. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information provided pursuant to this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 19…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026, Nutanix, Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for its second fiscal quarter ended January 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amende…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On February 25, 2026, the Company and AMD issued a joint press release announcing the Private Placement and a multi-year strategic partnership involving AMD funding up to $100 million for the Company to support R&D and go-to-market for integrated solutions. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2. The information provided pursuant to this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.2 hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes…