Nutanix (NTNX)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-23

$70.58+1.48%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Nutanix’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.69 → 2.69 EPS · FY ending Jul 31, 2028 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q1
Revenue	$755M–$765M	762.44M
EPS	—	0.607
Operating margin	26%–28%non-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	$3.18B–$3.23B	3.22B
EPS	—	2.327
Free cash flow	$850M–$950M	—
Operating margin	24%–25%non-GAAP	—
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.66B
EPS	—	2.69

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain disciplined capital allocation including share buybacks	A supporting condition in Nutanix's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain buyback program near $750 million.	Intact	Company suspends or materially reduces buyback program	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow at least $760 million next quarter	Free cash flow is strong, around $770 million next quarter.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $700 million next quarter	Free cash flow: $277.57M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $760 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 18, 2026277,570,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin near 22.5%	Nutanix grows revenue about 15% a year, with operating margin near 22.5%.	Improving	Operating margin falls below 20% next quarter	Operating margin: 9.24% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~22.5%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 20, 20269.244622 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Date unavailable Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1a3c990c-d896-4e1c-84ed-a1f5791f5c8c. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of 3 supplied transcript quarters. Revenue was $757.1 million in Q4 FY2026 versus $653.3 million in Q4 FY2025, and non-GAAP operating margin was 26.2% versus 18.3%. The financial trajectory is delivering on growth and profitability, although the supplied transcript set does not include a Q4 FY2026 fiscal-period transcript. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows at least 15% year over year	Nutanix grows revenue about 15% a year, with operating margin near 22.5%.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 10% next year	Revenue: $757.078M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=15% YoY. Target and observation units differ. Source published Sep 18, 2026757,078,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of 3 supplied transcript quarters. Revenue was $757.1 million in Q4 FY2026 versus $653.3 million in Q4 FY2025, and non-GAAP operating margin was 26.2% versus 18.3%. The financial trajectory is delivering on growth and profitability, although the supplied transcript set does not include a Q4 FY2026 fiscal-period transcript. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$2.69

$2.55 → $2.69 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$3.66B

$3.60B → $3.66B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-08-01	$2.55	$3,596,920,169	5 / 14
2026-08-02	$2.55	$3,596,920,169	5 / 14
2026-08-03	$2.55	$3,596,920,169	5 / 14
2026-08-04	$2.55	$3,596,920,169	5 / 14
2026-08-05	$2.55	$3,596,920,169	5 / 14
2026-08-06	$2.55	$3,596,920,169	5 / 14
2026-08-07	$2.55	$3,596,920,169	5 / 14
2026-08-08	$2.55	$3,596,920,169	5 / 14
2026-08-09	$2.55	$3,596,920,169	5 / 14
2026-08-10	$2.55	$3,596,920,169	5 / 14
2026-08-12	$2.55	$3,596,920,169	5 / 14
2026-08-13	$2.55	$3,596,920,169	5 / 14
2026-08-14	$2.55	$3,596,920,169	5 / 14
2026-08-15	$2.55	$3,596,920,169	5 / 14
2026-08-16	$2.55	$3,596,920,169	5 / 14
2026-08-17	$2.55	$3,596,920,169	5 / 14
2026-08-18	$2.55	$3,596,920,169	5 / 14
2026-08-19	$2.55	$3,596,920,169	5 / 14
2026-08-20	$2.55	$3,596,920,169	5 / 14
2026-08-21	$2.55	$3,604,384,454	5 / 14
2026-08-22	$2.55	$3,604,384,454	5 / 14
2026-08-23	$2.55	$3,604,384,454	5 / 14
2026-08-24	$2.55	$3,604,384,454	5 / 14
2026-08-25	$2.55	$3,604,384,454	5 / 14
2026-08-26	$2.58	$3,607,492,634	5 / 14
2026-08-27	$2.58	$3,607,492,634	5 / 14
2026-08-28	$2.58	$3,607,492,634	5 / 14
2026-08-29	$2.69	$3,654,432,791	10 / 15
2026-08-30	$2.69	$3,654,432,791	11 / 15
2026-08-31	$2.69	$3,654,432,791	11 / 15
2026-09-01	$2.69	$3,654,432,791	11 / 15
2026-09-02	$2.69	$3,654,432,791	11 / 15
2026-09-03	$2.69	$3,654,432,791	11 / 15
2026-09-04	$2.69	$3,654,432,791	11 / 16
2026-09-05	$2.69	$3,654,432,791	11 / 16
2026-09-06	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	11 / 15
2026-09-07	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	11 / 15
2026-09-08	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	11 / 15
2026-09-09	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	11 / 15
2026-09-10	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	11 / 15
2026-09-11	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	11 / 15
2026-09-12	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	11 / 15
2026-09-13	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	11 / 15
2026-09-14	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	11 / 15
2026-09-15	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	11 / 15
2026-09-16	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	11 / 15
2026-09-17	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	11 / 15
2026-09-18	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	11 / 15
2026-09-19	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	11 / 15
2026-09-20	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	11 / 15
2026-09-21	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	11 / 15
2026-09-22	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	11 / 15
2026-09-23	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	11 / 15
2026-09-24	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	11 / 15
2026-09-25	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	11 / 15
2026-09-26	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	11 / 15
2026-09-27	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 15
2026-09-28	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 15
2026-09-29	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 15
2026-09-30	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 14
2026-10-01	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 14
2026-10-02	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 14
2026-10-03	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 14
2026-10-04	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 14
2026-10-05	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 14
2026-10-06	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 14
2026-10-07	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 14
2026-10-08	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 14
2026-10-09	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 14
2026-10-10	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 14
2026-10-11	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 14
2026-10-12	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 14
2026-10-13	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 14
2026-10-14	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 14
2026-10-15	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 14
2026-10-16	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 14
2026-10-17	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 14
2026-10-18	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 14
2026-10-19	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 14
2026-10-20	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 14
2026-10-21	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 14
2026-10-22	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 14
2026-10-23	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 14
2026-10-24	$2.69	$3,655,563,705	9 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	10	8
2026-06-01	9	8
2026-07-01	9	8
2026-08-01	9	8
2026-09-01	9	8
2026-10-01	9	7

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

NeedhamSep 28 · prior Aug 27

$85.00 → $90.00+5.9%

$0$49.50$99.00

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain disciplined capital allocation including share buybacksDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Free cash flow at least $760 million next quarterFree cash flow: $277.57M
Operating margin near 22.5%Operating margin: 9.24%
Revenue grows at least 15% year over yearRevenue: $757.078M

Next proof point

Nov 24, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-52.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Nutanix outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

NTNX is a growth and profitability story, supported by robust earnings quality and strong recent financial performance. Its multi-year view is intact, though management is rated volatile and the overall risk level is elevated.

What's priced into Nutanix

The valuation evidence is mixed: NTNX is described as cheap versus peers, while also carrying an 83% premium to peers. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be demanding, although the priced-in assessment labels them justified and finds low fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show strong growth: Q4 FY2026 revenue was higher year over year, operating margin improved, and ARR increased. Full-year free cash flow also rose, while recent company momentum fell and two recent events noted a president transition. The next call matters because a guidance cut is a stated risk, even though the current estimated miss risk is low.

What Nutanix hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on sustained growth and profitability, with clearer evidence that hybrid cloud and AI initiatives are gaining adoption. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the setup, while rate cuts or continued strong results from major technology companies could support the sector backdrop.