Nutanix (NTNX)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-09
$66.94-0.81%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Nutanix grows revenue about 15% a year, with operating margin near 22.5%. Free cash flow is strong, around $770 million next quarter. The company has a solid partnership with AMD and a $750 million share buyback program. These support durable growth and improving profits.
Revenue growth could slow below 10%, and free cash flow may decline further. The recent guidance cut and equity sales to AMD raise concerns about capital needs. Profit margins might compress if cost control weakens.
The stock trades about 18% below our fair value near $66, reflecting a justified discount. Analysts expect about 15% revenue growth, which aligns with our view, but the market prices some risk from recent guidance cuts.
Breaks if: Company suspends or materially reduces buyback program
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $700 million next quarter
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 20% next quarter
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on sustainable growth and profitability. The current thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance despite some risks.
The market appears to have priced in a justified valuation, although it is considered expensive compared to peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that some positive surprises may already be reflected in the stock.
Nutanix's fundamentals are likely to continue improving, as management is focused on driving growth and enhancing cash flow. Recent results show strong year-over-year growth in annual recurring revenue and free cash flow, although there is a low probability of missing future guidance.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain growth and profitability, as well as external factors like potential interest rate cuts and performance from sector leaders. Any cuts to guidance could negatively impact sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports sustainable growth and profitability. However, free cash flow guidance is more measured, which poses a challenge.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Focus on delivering solid top and bottom line performance with ARR growth, revenue growth, and improved operating margins.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Nutanix delivered 16% year-over-year ARR growth from $2.20B in 2025-Q4 to $2.55B in 2026-Q3, revenue grew from $2.54B to $2.85B, and GAAP operating income increased from $172.5M to $274.0M with margin improving from 6.8% to 9.6%. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth and improved profitability as management emphasized.
“We delivered solid top and bottom line performance and 16% year-over-year ARR growth”
“We remain focused on driving sustainable growth and improving profitability.”
“Our opportunities with AI, modern applications, hybrid multicloud, and support for external storage provide us with a strong foundation for multi-year growth.”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 10% next year
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Focus on delivering solid top and bottom line performance with ARR growth, revenue growth, and improved operating margins.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Nutanix delivered 16% year-over-year ARR growth from $2.20B in 2025-Q4 to $2.55B in 2026-Q3, revenue grew from $2.54B to $2.85B, and GAAP operating income increased from $172.5M to $274.0M with margin improving from 6.8% to 9.6%. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth and improved profitability as management emphasized.
Overall, Nutanix's position looks solid for the next 1 to 3 years, but investors should be mindful of the elevated risks and expensive valuation. Not investment advice.
“We delivered solid top and bottom line performance and 16% year-over-year ARR growth”
“We remain focused on driving sustainable growth and improving profitability.”
“Our opportunities with AI, modern applications, hybrid multicloud, and support for external storage provide us with a strong foundation for multi-year growth.”