ServiceNow (NOW)

NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-15

$141.97-4.44%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ServiceNow’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.02 → 5.02 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 26 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 26 to 26; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
advance AI-driven workflow and platform innovation	A supporting condition in ServiceNow's published investment case. The stated target is sustain AI product innovation and integration.	Under Pressure	major AI security failures or loss of AI leadership	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Management consistently highlights new AI-driven platform innovations such as AI Control Tower, AI Agent Fabric, Autonomous Workforce AI specialists, and AI Agent Orchestrator. While these innovations are repeatedly emphasized, financials do not quantify direct revenue impact, indicating recurring focus with narrow delivery so far. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
effective use of capital for M&A and buybacks	A supporting condition in ServiceNow's published investment case. The stated target is maintain disciplined capital allocation supporting growth.	Improving	capital use harms financial health or growth prospects	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
subscription revenue grows at least 20% annually	ServiceNow grows subscription revenue 22% yearly.	Intact	subscription revenue growth falls below 15% YoY in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Subscription revenues grew from $3,005 million in 2025-Q1 to $3,877 million in 2026-Q2, representing 24.5% year-over-year growth in the latest quarter. Management has consistently raised full-year subscription revenue guidance reflecting net new ACV strength. The trajectory is delivering sustained and accelerating subscription revenue growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
total revenue reaches about $15.55 billion in 2026	A primary condition in ServiceNow's published investment case. The stated target is ~$15.55B total revenue.	Intact	total revenue falls below $14.5B in FY26	Revenue: $3.987B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$15.55B total revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 20263,987,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9f0f9aee-881d-428b-8c30-0465895f5f07. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Subscription revenues grew from $3,005 million in 2025-Q1 to $3,877 million in 2026-Q2, representing 24.5% year-over-year growth in the latest quarter. Management has consistently raised full-year subscription revenue guidance reflecting net new ACV strength. The trajectory is delivering sustained and accelerating subscription revenue growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.02

$5.02 → $5.02 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$19.25B

$19.21B → $19.25B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.02	$19,214,177,450	44 / 45
2026-07-25	$5.01	$19,265,000,680	44 / 45
2026-07-26	$5.01	$19,265,000,680	44 / 45
2026-07-27	$5.01	$19,261,750,660	44 / 46
2026-07-28	$5.01	$19,261,750,660	44 / 46
2026-07-29	$5.01	$19,264,242,560	44 / 45
2026-07-30	$5.02	$19,244,731,002	26 / 34
2026-07-31	$5.01	$19,262,432,930	44 / 46
2026-08-01	$5.02	$19,244,731,002	26 / 34
2026-08-02	$5.01	$19,262,432,930	44 / 46
2026-08-03	$5.02	$19,244,731,002	26 / 35
2026-08-04	$5.02	$19,244,731,002	26 / 35
2026-08-05	$5.01	$19,262,432,930	44 / 46
2026-08-06	$5.02	$19,244,731,002	26 / 35
2026-08-07	$5.02	$19,244,731,427	26 / 35
2026-08-08	$5.01	$19,262,432,930	44 / 46
2026-08-09	$5.01	$19,262,432,930	44 / 46
2026-08-10	$5.01	$19,262,432,930	44 / 46
2026-08-12	$5.01	$19,262,432,930	44 / 46
2026-08-13	$5.01	$19,262,432,930	44 / 46
2026-08-14	$5.02	$19,244,731,427	26 / 35
2026-08-15	$5.02	$19,244,731,427	26 / 35
2026-08-16	$5.02	$19,244,731,427	26 / 35
2026-08-17	$5.02	$19,244,731,427	26 / 35
2026-08-18	$5.02	$19,244,731,427	26 / 35
2026-08-19	$5.02	$19,244,731,427	26 / 35
2026-08-20	$5.02	$19,244,731,423	26 / 35
2026-08-21	$5.02	$19,244,731,423	26 / 35
2026-08-22	$5.02	$19,244,731,423	26 / 35
2026-08-23	$5.02	$19,244,731,423	26 / 35
2026-08-24	$5.02	$19,244,731,423	26 / 35
2026-08-25	$5.02	$19,244,731,423	26 / 35
2026-08-26	$5.02	$19,244,731,423	26 / 35
2026-08-27	$5.02	$19,244,731,423	26 / 35
2026-08-28	$5.02	$19,244,731,423	26 / 35
2026-08-29	$5.02	$19,244,731,423	26 / 35
2026-08-30	$5.02	$19,244,731,423	26 / 35
2026-08-31	$5.02	$19,244,731,423	26 / 35
2026-09-01	$5.02	$19,244,731,423	26 / 35
2026-09-02	$5.02	$19,244,731,423	26 / 35
2026-09-03	$5.02	$19,244,731,423	26 / 35
2026-09-04	$5.02	$19,244,731,423	26 / 35
2026-09-05	$5.02	$19,244,731,423	26 / 35
2026-09-06	$5.02	$19,244,731,423	26 / 35
2026-09-07	$5.02	$19,244,731,423	26 / 35
2026-09-08	$5.02	$19,244,731,423	26 / 35
2026-09-09	$5.02	$19,237,818,091	26 / 35
2026-09-10	$5.02	$19,237,818,095	26 / 35
2026-09-11	$5.02	$19,237,826,226	26 / 35
2026-09-12	$5.02	$19,237,826,226	26 / 35
2026-09-13	$5.02	$19,237,826,226	26 / 35
2026-09-14	$5.02	$19,237,826,226	26 / 35
2026-09-15	$5.02	$19,237,826,226	26 / 35
2026-09-16	$5.02	$19,237,826,226	26 / 35
2026-09-17	$5.02	$19,237,826,226	26 / 35
2026-09-18	$5.02	$19,237,826,226	26 / 35
2026-09-19	$5.02	$19,237,826,226	26 / 35
2026-09-20	$5.02	$19,247,771,931	26 / 35
2026-09-21	$5.02	$19,247,771,931	26 / 35
2026-09-22	$5.02	$19,247,766,961	26 / 35
2026-09-23	$5.02	$19,247,705,473	26 / 35
2026-09-24	$5.02	$19,247,705,473	26 / 35
2026-09-25	$5.02	$19,247,705,473	26 / 35
2026-09-26	$5.02	$19,247,705,473	26 / 35
2026-09-27	$5.02	$19,247,705,473	26 / 35
2026-09-28	$5.02	$19,247,705,473	26 / 35
2026-09-29	$5.02	$19,247,705,473	26 / 35
2026-09-30	$5.02	$19,247,705,473	26 / 35
2026-10-01	$5.02	$19,247,705,473	26 / 35
2026-10-02	$5.02	$19,247,705,468	26 / 35
2026-10-03	$5.02	$19,247,705,468	26 / 35
2026-10-04	$5.02	$19,247,705,468	26 / 35
2026-10-05	$5.02	$19,247,705,468	26 / 35
2026-10-06	$5.02	$19,247,705,468	26 / 35
2026-10-07	$5.02	$19,247,705,468	26 / 35
2026-10-08	$5.02	$19,247,705,468	26 / 35
2026-10-09	$5.02	$19,247,695,750	26 / 35
2026-10-10	$5.02	$19,247,695,750	26 / 35
2026-10-11	$5.02	$19,247,695,750	26 / 35
2026-10-12	$5.02	$19,247,695,750	26 / 35
2026-10-13	$5.02	$19,247,695,855	26 / 35
2026-10-14	$5.02	$19,247,695,855	26 / 34
2026-10-15	$5.02	$19,247,695,855	26 / 35

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	43	4	1
2026-06-01	43	4	1
2026-07-01	45	4	2
2026-08-01	45	3	2
2026-09-01	45	3	2
2026-10-01	45	2	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 45 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades13 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 13 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 15

$170.00New observation · no comparable prior

OppenheimerOct 13 · prior Jul 15

$140.00 → $165.00+17.9%

BarclaysOct 13 · prior May 5

$134.00 → $160.00+19.4%

Wells FargoOct 12 · prior Aug 12

$175.00 → $190.00+8.6%

RBC CapitalOct 12 · prior Jul 16

$130.00 → $176.00+35.4%

Stifel NicolausOct 6 · prior Apr 23

$120.00 → $160.00+33.3%

Cantor FitzgeraldSep 21 · prior Jun 15

$130.00 → $174.00+33.8%

$0$104.50$209.00

6 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

advance AI-driven workflow and platform innovationPublished status: Under Pressure
effective use of capital for M&A and buybacksDirect metric needs a verified mapping
subscription revenue grows at least 20% annuallyDirect metric needs a verified mapping
total revenue reaches about $15.55 billion in 2026Revenue: $3.987B

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-56.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ServiceNow outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a durable compounder with a focus on subscription revenue. The current thesis state is intact, but management's execution has been volatile, particularly in enhancing AI-driven offerings.

What's priced into ServiceNow

The market appears to have a neutral valuation, with expectations slightly below peer performance. The current pricing reflects a low fragility tier, indicating that the stock is seen as justified compared to its peers.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to increase subscription revenue, which has shown robust growth. However, there are risks due to recent earnings misses, and the overall financial performance is currently neutral.

What ServiceNow hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to deliver on AI innovations and expand strategic partnerships. Additionally, external factors like potential Fed rate cuts and the performance of sector leaders will be crucial.