Rubrik Inc (RBRK)

NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-23

$128.74+6.62%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Rubrik Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.77 → 0.77 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q3
Revenue	$429M–$431M	429.65M
EPS	$0.07–$0.09non-GAAP	0.081
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	$1.69B–$1.69B	1.69B
EPS	$0.47–$0.53non-GAAP	0.503
Free cash flow	$323M–$333M	—
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.05B
EPS	—	0.768

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow rises to about $298 million	Free cash flow guidance rose to about $298 million.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $194 million in FY27	Free cash flow: $71.247M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$298M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 1, 202671,247,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating losses shrink towards -$52.6 million	A supporting condition in Rubrik Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= -$52.6M.	Intact	Operating losses worsen beyond -$94 million	Operating income: $-71.902M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= -$52.6M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 1, 2026-71,902,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b5994db5-3be6-4c08-a85c-bfa7b6fed3ce. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS reaches $0.25 to $0.35 per share	The company expects positive earnings per share of $0.25 to $0.35 in fiscal 2027.	Intact	EPS falls below $0.0 in FY27	Diluted EPS: $-0.30 per share FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.25 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 1, 2026-0.3 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b5994db5-3be6-4c08-a85c-bfa7b6fed3ce. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to about $1.64 billion	A primary condition in Rubrik Inc's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.64B.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.28 billion in FY27	Revenue: $427.26M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.64B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 1, 2026427,260,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b5994db5-3be6-4c08-a85c-bfa7b6fed3ce. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Total revenue grew from $387.1 million in 2026-Q2 to $427.3 million in 2026-Q3, a 38% year-over-year increase from $309.9 million in 2025-Q3. Management is delivering sustained revenue growth consistent with stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$0.77

$0.64 → $0.77 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$2.05B

$2.00B → $2.05B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.64	$1,997,318,937	14 / 20
2026-07-25	$0.64	$1,997,318,937	14 / 20
2026-07-26	$0.64	$1,997,318,937	14 / 20
2026-07-27	$0.64	$1,997,318,937	14 / 20
2026-07-28	$0.64	$1,997,318,937	14 / 20
2026-07-29	$0.64	$1,997,318,937	14 / 20
2026-07-30	$0.64	$1,997,318,937	14 / 20
2026-07-31	$0.64	$1,997,318,937	14 / 20
2026-08-01	$0.64	$1,997,318,937	14 / 20
2026-08-02	$0.64	$1,997,318,937	14 / 20
2026-08-03	$0.64	$1,997,318,937	14 / 20
2026-08-04	$0.64	$1,997,318,937	14 / 20
2026-08-05	$0.64	$1,997,318,937	14 / 20
2026-08-06	$0.64	$1,997,318,937	14 / 20
2026-08-07	$0.64	$1,996,992,310	14 / 20
2026-08-08	$0.64	$1,996,992,310	14 / 20
2026-08-09	$0.64	$1,996,992,310	14 / 20
2026-08-10	$0.64	$1,996,992,310	14 / 20
2026-08-12	$0.64	$1,996,992,310	14 / 20
2026-08-13	$0.64	$1,996,992,310	14 / 20
2026-08-14	$0.64	$1,996,992,310	14 / 20
2026-08-15	$0.64	$1,996,992,310	14 / 20
2026-08-16	$0.64	$1,996,992,310	14 / 20
2026-08-17	$0.64	$1,996,992,310	14 / 20
2026-08-18	$0.64	$1,996,992,310	14 / 20
2026-08-19	$0.64	$1,996,992,310	14 / 20
2026-08-20	$0.64	$1,996,986,132	14 / 20
2026-08-21	$0.64	$1,997,341,688	14 / 20
2026-08-22	$0.64	$1,997,341,688	14 / 20
2026-08-23	$0.64	$1,997,341,688	14 / 20
2026-08-24	$0.64	$1,997,341,688	14 / 20
2026-08-25	$0.64	$1,998,249,125	14 / 20
2026-08-26	$0.64	$1,998,247,651	14 / 20
2026-08-27	$0.64	$1,998,247,651	14 / 20
2026-08-28	$0.64	$1,998,247,651	14 / 20
2026-08-29	$0.76	$2,048,347,691	14 / 20
2026-08-30	$0.76	$2,048,347,691	14 / 20
2026-08-31	$0.76	$2,048,347,691	14 / 20
2026-09-01	$0.77	$2,051,064,635	14 / 20
2026-09-02	$0.77	$2,051,064,635	14 / 20
2026-09-03	$0.77	$2,051,064,635	14 / 20
2026-09-04	$0.77	$2,051,064,635	14 / 20
2026-09-05	$0.77	$2,051,064,635	14 / 20
2026-09-06	$0.77	$2,051,064,635	14 / 20
2026-09-07	$0.77	$2,051,064,635	14 / 20
2026-09-08	$0.77	$2,051,064,635	14 / 20
2026-09-09	$0.77	$2,051,064,635	14 / 20
2026-09-10	$0.77	$2,051,064,635	14 / 20
2026-09-11	$0.77	$2,054,042,413	14 / 20
2026-09-12	$0.77	$2,054,042,413	14 / 20
2026-09-13	$0.77	$2,054,042,413	14 / 20
2026-09-14	$0.77	$2,054,042,413	14 / 20
2026-09-15	$0.77	$2,054,042,413	14 / 20
2026-09-16	$0.77	$2,054,042,413	14 / 20
2026-09-17	$0.77	$2,054,042,413	14 / 20
2026-09-18	$0.77	$2,054,042,413	14 / 20
2026-09-19	$0.77	$2,054,042,413	14 / 20
2026-09-20	$0.77	$2,054,042,413	14 / 20
2026-09-21	$0.77	$2,054,042,413	14 / 20
2026-09-22	$0.77	$2,054,042,413	14 / 20
2026-09-23	$0.77	$2,054,042,413	14 / 20
2026-09-24	$0.77	$2,054,042,413	14 / 20
2026-09-25	$0.77	$2,054,042,413	14 / 20
2026-09-26	$0.77	$2,054,042,413	14 / 20
2026-09-27	$0.77	$2,054,042,413	14 / 20
2026-09-28	$0.77	$2,054,042,413	14 / 20
2026-09-29	$0.77	$2,054,042,413	14 / 20
2026-09-30	$0.77	$2,054,042,413	14 / 20
2026-10-01	$0.77	$2,054,031,554	14 / 20
2026-10-02	$0.77	$2,054,031,554	14 / 20
2026-10-03	$0.77	$2,054,031,554	14 / 20
2026-10-04	$0.77	$2,054,031,554	14 / 20
2026-10-05	$0.77	$2,054,031,554	14 / 20
2026-10-06	$0.77	$2,054,031,555	14 / 20
2026-10-07	$0.77	$2,054,031,555	14 / 20
2026-10-08	$0.77	$2,054,031,555	14 / 20
2026-10-09	$0.77	$2,054,031,555	14 / 20
2026-10-10	$0.77	$2,054,031,555	14 / 20
2026-10-11	$0.77	$2,054,031,555	14 / 20
2026-10-12	$0.77	$2,054,031,555	14 / 20
2026-10-13	$0.77	$2,054,031,555	14 / 20
2026-10-14	$0.77	$2,054,031,555	14 / 20
2026-10-15	$0.77	$2,054,031,555	14 / 20
2026-10-16	$0.77	$2,054,031,555	14 / 20
2026-10-17	$0.77	$2,054,031,555	14 / 20
2026-10-18	$0.77	$2,054,031,555	14 / 20
2026-10-19	$0.77	$2,054,031,555	14 / 20
2026-10-20	$0.77	$2,054,031,555	14 / 20
2026-10-21	$0.77	$2,054,031,555	14 / 20
2026-10-22	$0.77	$2,054,032,370	14 / 20
2026-10-23	$0.77	$2,054,032,370	14 / 20
2026-10-24	$0.77	$2,054,032,370	14 / 20

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	29	1
2026-06-01	29	0
2026-07-01	27	0
2026-08-01	28	0
2026-09-01	28	0
2026-10-01	28	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 28 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow rises to about $298 millionFree cash flow: $71.247M
Operating losses shrink towards -$52.6 millionOperating income: $-71.902M
EPS reaches $0.25 to $0.35 per shareDiluted EPS: $-0.30 per share
Revenue grows to about $1.64 billionRevenue: $427.26M

Next proof point

Dec 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-52.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Rubrik Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth investment with meaningful execution risk, rather than a proven profitable compounder. The multi-year view remains watchful: subscription growth is strong, but recent financial performance is weak and the overall signal has shifted to mixed.

What's priced into Rubrik Inc

The valuation is tagged stretched and carries a 4.16 premium versus peers, with low confidence in the valuation model. The evidence points to some expectations for future growth and other potential benefits, but does not quantify what the market assumes; the expectations gap is 0.12.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, subscription ARR growth is on track: it rose 33% year over year in 2026-Q3, and net new subscription ARR rose 35%. Profitability and cash flow progress is mixed, despite a narrower GAAP loss per share and higher free cash flow year over year; cash flow margin fell from the prior quarter. The near-term miss risk is described as low, but past earnings have been erratic and recent performance remains below the industry cohort.

What Rubrik Inc hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on subscription growth continuing while operating leverage and cash flow margins improve. Near term, a guidance cut after the recent raise would hurt management credibility; continued earnings strength from major technology companies or lower interest rates could support the sector backdrop.