Rubrik Inc (RBRK)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-09
$88.82-3.07%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Rubrik grew revenue 39% last quarter. It raised full-year revenue to $1.64 billion. The company expects positive earnings per share of $0.25 to $0.35 in fiscal 2027. Free cash flow guidance rose to about $298 million. These show Rubrik is improving fast.
Rubrik still loses money on operating income. Profit gains are slow and uncertain. The stock trades very high at a PE of 322 times. This risks a big price drop if growth slows.
The price is about 34% above our fair value near $65. Analysts expect 24% revenue growth. Our value is 28% below the Street median of $90. We see risk if growth or profits miss.
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $194 million in FY27
Breaks if: Operating losses worsen beyond -$94 million
Breaks if: EPS falls below $0.0 in FY27
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on improving subscription growth and profitability. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has been weak despite some positive developments.
The market appears to be pricing in a stretched valuation compared to peers, with a durable premium. There is a low expectations gap, suggesting that investors may not anticipate significant improvements in fundamentals in the near term.
Fundamentals are likely to show mixed results as management continues to focus on subscription growth and improving profitability. While subscription ARR growth is strong, the overall financial performance remains weak, which may limit positive momentum.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for the Fed to cut rates, which could benefit tech stocks like RBRK. Additionally, the performance of sector leaders such as MSFT, ORCL, and PLTR will be crucial for maintaining momentum in the tech space.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The company reported a strong earnings beat, with revenue higher than estimated. However, a sharp drop in the stock price suggests the market may be repricing the thesis. This decline raises concerns about future performance and credibility.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1.28 billion in FY27
Sustain total revenue growth through subscription and cloud revenue expansion.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Total revenue grew from $387.1 million in 2026-Q2 to $427.3 million in 2026-Q3, a 38% year-over-year increase from $309.9 million in 2025-Q3. Management is delivering sustained revenue growth consistent with stated priorities.
“Total revenue was $427.3 million, a 38% increase compared to $309.9 million in 2025-Q3”
“Total revenue was $387.1 million, a 39% increase compared to $278.5 million in 2025-Q2”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, RBRK's trajectory will depend on its ability to improve fundamentals amidst a challenging backdrop. Not investment advice.