Toast Inc (TOST)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-09
$32.45-2.52%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Toast grows adjusted EBITDA to about $800 million in 2026. Gross profit from subscription services rises to around $570 million. The company has a strong share buyback program adding $500 million. Sales growth is expected near 23%, with stable profit margins.
Growth could slow below analyst expectations. Profit margins might compress if competition intensifies. Share buybacks may not sustain if cash flow weakens.
The price is about 10% below our fair value near $33. Analysts expect 23% revenue growth, which aligns with management's raised EBITDA and gross profit guidance. Our fair value is slightly below the Street median, reflecting cautious optimism.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $790 million in FY26
Raise Adjusted EBITDA targets reflecting improved profitability and operational leverage.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on long-term growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance and management's commitment to key priorities.
The market seems to price TOST as justified, with a low fragility tier indicating that there are no immediate concerns. Compared to peers, TOST is seen as cheap, suggesting that expectations may be lower than its potential.
Management is on track to grow Annualized Recurring Revenue and customer locations, with strong year-over-year increases. However, there is an elevated risk due to the potential for guidance cuts, which could impact expectations.
Key scenarios include the Fed's decisions on interest rates, which could provide a favorable environment for TOST. Additionally, the performance of major tech companies like MSFT and ORCL will be important indicators for sector momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat and increased Adjusted EBITDA guidance support a positive outlook. However, concerns arose as the CEO sold a significant number of shares. This raises questions about confidence in the company.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance for full year 2026 increased from a midpoint of $785 million in 2025-Q4 to $815 million in 2026-Q2. This reflects management's focus on improving profitability and operational leverage, with the trajectory delivering on raised targets.
“Adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $805 million to $825 million for full year 2026.”
“Adjusted EBITDA guidance was $790 million to $810 million for full year 2026.”
“Adjusted EBITDA guidance was $775 million to $795 million for full year 2026.”
Breaks if: No share repurchases or program reduced significantly in FY26
Breaks if: Gross profit from subscription services falls below $565 million in Q2 2026
Toast aims to grow gross profit from subscription services and financial technology solutions.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, TOST appears to be well-positioned for growth, but it faces risks that could impact its trajectory. Not investment advice.