Toast Inc (TOST)

NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-23

$32.71-2.12%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Toast Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.73 → 1.70 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.95B
EPS	—	0.334
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	7.47B
EPS	—	1.374
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	8.85B
EPS	—	1.7

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $790 million in fiscal 2026	Toast grows adjusted EBITDA to about $800 million in 2026.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $790 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance for full year 2026 increased from a midpoint of $785 million in 2025-Q4 to $815 million in 2026-Q2. This reflects management's focus on improving profitability and operational leverage, with the trajectory delivering on raised targets. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain or expand $500 million share repurchase program	The company has a strong share buyback program adding $500 million.	Intact	No share repurchases or program reduced significantly in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross profit from subscription services at least $565 million in Q2 2026	Gross profit from subscription services rises to around $570 million.	Intact	Gross profit from subscription services falls below $565 million in Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.70

$1.67 → $1.70 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$8.85B

$8.72B → $8.85B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.67	$8,720,719,372	13 / 21
2026-07-25	$1.69	$8,720,366,810	16 / 28
2026-07-26	$1.67	$8,723,132,987	13 / 21
2026-07-27	$1.67	$8,723,132,987	13 / 21
2026-07-28	$1.67	$8,723,132,987	13 / 21
2026-07-29	$1.69	$8,720,331,090	16 / 28
2026-07-30	$1.67	$8,720,343,701	13 / 21
2026-07-31	$1.67	$8,720,343,701	13 / 21
2026-08-01	$1.67	$8,720,343,701	13 / 21
2026-08-02	$1.69	$8,720,331,090	16 / 28
2026-08-03	$1.67	$8,720,343,701	13 / 21
2026-08-04	$1.67	$8,720,629,415	13 / 21
2026-08-05	$1.70	$8,722,152,520	16 / 28
2026-08-06	$1.69	$8,720,616,810	16 / 28
2026-08-08	$1.72	$8,831,556,565	13 / 21
2026-08-09	$1.74	$8,831,550,430	16 / 28
2026-08-10	$1.72	$8,831,556,565	13 / 21
2026-08-12	$1.74	$8,838,327,540	17 / 28
2026-08-13	$1.72	$8,831,556,565	13 / 21
2026-08-14	$1.72	$8,831,556,565	13 / 21
2026-08-15	$1.72	$8,831,556,565	13 / 21
2026-08-16	$1.72	$8,831,556,565	14 / 21
2026-08-17	$1.72	$8,831,556,565	14 / 21
2026-08-18	$1.72	$8,831,556,565	14 / 21
2026-08-19	$1.72	$8,831,556,565	14 / 21
2026-08-20	$1.72	$8,839,154,630	14 / 21
2026-08-21	$1.72	$8,839,154,630	14 / 21
2026-08-22	$1.72	$8,839,154,630	14 / 21
2026-08-23	$1.72	$8,843,583,202	14 / 21
2026-08-24	$1.72	$8,843,583,202	14 / 21
2026-08-25	$1.72	$8,843,583,203	14 / 21
2026-08-26	$1.72	$8,844,154,631	14 / 21
2026-08-27	$1.72	$8,844,154,631	14 / 21
2026-08-28	$1.72	$8,844,154,631	14 / 21
2026-08-29	$1.72	$8,844,154,631	13 / 20
2026-08-30	$1.72	$8,844,154,631	13 / 20
2026-08-31	$1.72	$8,844,154,631	13 / 20
2026-09-01	$1.72	$8,844,154,631	13 / 20
2026-09-02	$1.72	$8,844,154,631	13 / 20
2026-09-03	$1.72	$8,846,368,917	13 / 20
2026-09-04	$1.72	$8,846,368,917	13 / 20
2026-09-05	$1.72	$8,846,368,917	13 / 20
2026-09-06	$1.72	$8,846,368,917	13 / 20
2026-09-07	$1.72	$8,846,368,917	13 / 20
2026-09-08	$1.72	$8,846,368,917	13 / 20
2026-09-09	$1.72	$8,846,368,917	13 / 20
2026-09-10	$1.72	$8,846,368,917	13 / 20
2026-09-11	$1.72	$8,846,368,917	13 / 20
2026-09-12	$1.72	$8,846,368,917	13 / 20
2026-09-13	$1.72	$8,846,368,917	13 / 20
2026-09-14	$1.72	$8,846,368,916	13 / 20
2026-09-15	$1.72	$8,846,368,916	13 / 20
2026-09-16	$1.73	$8,843,575,345	13 / 20
2026-09-17	$1.73	$8,843,575,345	13 / 20
2026-09-18	$1.73	$8,843,575,345	13 / 20
2026-09-19	$1.73	$8,843,575,345	13 / 20
2026-09-20	$1.73	$8,843,575,345	13 / 20
2026-09-21	$1.73	$8,843,575,345	13 / 20
2026-09-22	$1.73	$8,843,575,345	13 / 20
2026-09-23	$1.73	$8,843,575,345	13 / 20
2026-09-24	$1.73	$8,843,575,345	13 / 20
2026-09-25	$1.73	$8,844,639,716	13 / 20
2026-09-26	$1.73	$8,844,367,807	13 / 20
2026-09-27	$1.73	$8,844,367,807	13 / 20
2026-09-28	$1.73	$8,844,367,807	13 / 20
2026-09-29	$1.73	$8,844,367,807	13 / 20
2026-09-30	$1.73	$8,844,367,807	13 / 20
2026-10-01	$1.73	$8,844,367,807	13 / 20
2026-10-02	$1.73	$8,844,367,807	13 / 20
2026-10-03	$1.73	$8,844,367,807	13 / 20
2026-10-04	$1.73	$8,844,367,807	13 / 20
2026-10-05	$1.73	$8,844,296,378	13 / 20
2026-10-06	$1.73	$8,844,296,378	13 / 20
2026-10-07	$1.73	$8,844,296,378	13 / 20
2026-10-08	$1.73	$8,844,296,378	13 / 20
2026-10-09	$1.73	$8,844,296,378	13 / 20
2026-10-10	$1.73	$8,844,296,378	13 / 20
2026-10-11	$1.73	$8,844,296,378	13 / 20
2026-10-12	$1.73	$8,844,374,864	13 / 20
2026-10-13	$1.73	$8,843,160,578	12 / 20
2026-10-14	$1.73	$8,844,289,507	12 / 20
2026-10-15	$1.73	$8,844,289,507	12 / 20
2026-10-16	$1.70	$8,850,039,181	12 / 21
2026-10-17	$1.70	$8,850,039,181	12 / 21
2026-10-18	$1.70	$8,850,039,181	12 / 21
2026-10-19	$1.70	$8,850,039,181	13 / 21
2026-10-20	$1.70	$8,851,273,664	13 / 21
2026-10-21	$1.70	$8,851,273,664	13 / 21
2026-10-22	$1.70	$8,851,273,664	13 / 21
2026-10-23	$1.70	$8,850,521,940	13 / 21
2026-10-24	$1.70	$8,850,521,940	12 / 21

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	19	11
2026-06-01	19	11
2026-07-01	21	10
2026-08-01	21	9
2026-09-01	21	10
2026-10-01	21	10

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 19 · prior Aug 12

$39.00 → $38.00-2.6%

$0$21.45$42.90

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $790 million in fiscal 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain or expand $500 million share repurchase programDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Gross profit from subscription services at least $565 million in Q2 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-42.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Toast Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth business built around restaurant software and financial technology, with recurring revenue and customer expansion as key drivers. The multi-year view is intact: recent results and management execution are strong, though the overall risk level is elevated.

What's priced into Toast Inc

The evidence describes TOST as cheap versus peers, while the valuation assessment is neutral and priced-in fragility is low. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting market expectations may be ahead of what the model implies, but the evidence does not give enough detail to say precisely what investors assume.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term, recurring gross profit, annualized recurring revenue, and customer locations are growing, while full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance has been raised. Management is on track with these stated priorities, but declining earnings surprises and a prior deep miss make the next guidance update important.

What Toast Inc hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the main company-specific swing factor is whether TOST maintains guidance and continues delivering on growth and profitability priorities. Rate cuts or continued strength among major technology companies could support the sector backdrop, while a guidance cut would weaken the fundamental case.