Varonis Systems, Inc. (VRNS)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-23

$48.88-0.02%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Varonis Systems, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.41 → 0.41 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Operating income	$2.5M–$3.5Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	197.67M
EPS	—	0.028
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	737.53M
EPS	—	0.149
Free cash flow	$105M–$110M	—
Operating income	$11M–$13Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	875.91M
EPS	—	0.415

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow of $100M to $105M	Free cash flow should be $100 million to $105 million.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $100 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $20.7M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $100 million FCF in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202620,700,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of 17% to 18%	A primary condition in Varonis Systems, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $731 million revenue in FY26.	Intact	Revenue falls below $731 million in FY26	Revenue: $180.023M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $731 million revenue in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026180,023,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f210b8f8-97d1-44b9-8306-03b07b11277a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
SaaS ARR growth of 27% to 32%	Varonis aims to grow SaaS ARR by 27% to 32% in 2026.	Improving	SaaS ARR falls below $814 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.41

$0.38 → $0.41 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.88B

$0.87B → $0.88B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.38	$869,190,610	14 / 18
2026-07-25	$0.38	$868,651,050	24 / 23
2026-07-26	$0.38	$868,651,050	24 / 23
2026-07-27	$0.38	$868,651,050	24 / 23
2026-07-28	$0.38	$868,651,050	24 / 23
2026-07-29	$0.38	$868,651,050	24 / 23
2026-07-30	$0.38	$868,651,050	24 / 23
2026-07-31	$0.41	$875,798,394	14 / 18
2026-08-01	$0.41	$875,798,394	14 / 18
2026-08-02	$0.41	$875,798,394	14 / 18
2026-08-03	$0.41	$874,890,170	24 / 23
2026-08-04	$0.41	$874,890,170	24 / 23
2026-08-05	$0.41	$874,890,170	24 / 23
2026-08-06	$0.41	$875,798,394	14 / 18
2026-08-08	$0.41	$875,798,394	14 / 18
2026-08-09	$0.41	$874,890,170	24 / 23
2026-08-10	$0.41	$875,798,394	14 / 18
2026-08-12	$0.41	$875,798,394	14 / 18
2026-08-13	$0.41	$875,798,394	14 / 18
2026-08-14	$0.41	$875,798,394	14 / 18
2026-08-15	$0.41	$875,798,394	14 / 18
2026-08-16	$0.41	$875,798,394	14 / 18
2026-08-17	$0.41	$875,798,394	14 / 18
2026-08-18	$0.41	$875,798,394	14 / 18
2026-08-19	$0.41	$875,798,394	14 / 18
2026-08-20	$0.41	$875,783,803	14 / 18
2026-08-21	$0.41	$875,783,803	14 / 18
2026-08-22	$0.41	$875,783,803	14 / 18
2026-08-23	$0.41	$875,783,803	14 / 18
2026-08-24	$0.41	$875,783,803	14 / 18
2026-08-25	$0.41	$875,783,803	14 / 18
2026-08-26	$0.41	$875,783,803	14 / 18
2026-08-27	$0.41	$875,783,803	14 / 18
2026-08-28	$0.41	$875,783,803	14 / 18
2026-08-29	$0.41	$875,783,803	14 / 18
2026-08-30	$0.41	$875,783,803	14 / 18
2026-08-31	$0.41	$875,783,803	14 / 18
2026-09-01	$0.41	$875,783,803	14 / 18
2026-09-02	$0.41	$875,783,803	14 / 18
2026-09-03	$0.41	$875,783,803	14 / 18
2026-09-04	$0.41	$875,783,803	14 / 18
2026-09-05	$0.41	$875,783,803	14 / 18
2026-09-06	$0.41	$875,783,803	14 / 18
2026-09-07	$0.41	$875,783,803	14 / 18
2026-09-08	$0.41	$875,783,803	14 / 18
2026-09-09	$0.41	$875,783,803	14 / 18
2026-09-10	$0.41	$875,783,803	14 / 18
2026-09-11	$0.41	$876,180,303	14 / 18
2026-09-12	$0.41	$876,180,303	14 / 18
2026-09-13	$0.41	$876,180,303	13 / 18
2026-09-14	$0.41	$876,180,303	13 / 18
2026-09-15	$0.41	$876,180,303	13 / 18
2026-09-16	$0.41	$876,180,303	14 / 18
2026-09-17	$0.41	$876,180,303	14 / 18
2026-09-18	$0.41	$876,180,303	14 / 18
2026-09-19	$0.41	$876,180,303	14 / 18
2026-09-20	$0.41	$876,180,303	14 / 18
2026-09-21	$0.41	$876,180,303	14 / 18
2026-09-22	$0.41	$876,180,303	14 / 18
2026-09-23	$0.41	$876,180,303	14 / 18
2026-09-24	$0.41	$876,180,303	14 / 18
2026-09-25	$0.41	$876,180,303	14 / 18
2026-09-26	$0.41	$876,180,303	13 / 18
2026-09-27	$0.41	$876,180,303	13 / 18
2026-09-28	$0.41	$876,180,303	13 / 18
2026-09-29	$0.41	$876,180,303	13 / 18
2026-09-30	$0.41	$876,180,303	13 / 18
2026-10-01	$0.41	$876,180,303	13 / 18
2026-10-02	$0.41	$876,180,303	13 / 18
2026-10-03	$0.41	$876,180,303	13 / 18
2026-10-04	$0.41	$876,180,303	13 / 18
2026-10-05	$0.41	$876,180,303	13 / 18
2026-10-06	$0.41	$876,180,303	13 / 18
2026-10-07	$0.41	$876,180,303	13 / 18
2026-10-08	$0.41	$876,180,303	13 / 18
2026-10-09	$0.41	$876,180,303	13 / 18
2026-10-10	$0.41	$876,180,303	13 / 18
2026-10-11	$0.41	$876,180,303	13 / 18
2026-10-12	$0.41	$876,180,303	13 / 18
2026-10-13	$0.41	$876,180,303	13 / 18
2026-10-14	$0.41	$876,193,939	14 / 18
2026-10-15	$0.41	$876,193,939	14 / 18
2026-10-16	$0.41	$876,193,848	14 / 18
2026-10-17	$0.41	$876,193,848	14 / 18
2026-10-18	$0.41	$875,909,976	14 / 18
2026-10-19	$0.41	$875,909,976	14 / 18
2026-10-20	$0.41	$875,909,976	14 / 18
2026-10-21	$0.41	$875,910,348	14 / 18
2026-10-22	$0.41	$875,910,348	13 / 18
2026-10-23	$0.41	$875,910,348	13 / 18
2026-10-24	$0.41	$875,910,348	13 / 18

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	17	7	0
2026-06-01	18	7	1
2026-07-01	18	5	1
2026-08-01	18	5	1
2026-09-01	18	6	1
2026-10-01	17	18	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 17 Buy / Strong Buy · 18 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades9 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 14 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 16 · prior Jul 20

$50.00 → $49.75-0.5%

WedbushOct 16 · prior Sep 10

$46.00 → $49.75+8.2%

RBC CapitalOct 16 · prior Jul 16

$52.00 → $49.75-4.3%

JefferiesOct 16

$49.75New observation · no comparable prior

Piper SandlerOct 15

$49.75New observation · no comparable prior

D.A. DavidsonOct 15 · prior Apr 29

$37.00 → $49.75+34.5%

$0$28.60$57.20

2 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow of $100M to $105MFree cash flow: $20.7M
Revenue growth of 17% to 18%Revenue: $180.023M
SaaS ARR growth of 27% to 32%Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-68.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Varonis Systems, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-focused software business, not a proven profitable compounder. Its multi-year view rests on SaaS expansion and data and AI security products, while the current thesis is in a watch state after the signal shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.

What's priced into Varonis Systems, Inc.

The valuation model shows a durable premium of about 1.97 times versus peers, with the valuation tag describing that premium as justified. The expectations gap is slightly negative, but model confidence is low, so the evidence on what the market assumes is limited.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue and SaaS ARR have grown, and management raised its 2026 free cash flow guidance; however, VRNS remained loss-making, recent performance was weak relative to its industry cohort, and it missed its most recent quarter. The risk of a near-term miss is assessed as low, but a guidance cut after a recent increase could hurt management credibility.

What Varonis Systems, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued SaaS growth, successful delivery from newer security products, and progress toward higher free cash flow. A reversal in guidance would weaken the case, while rate cuts or strong results and guidance from major technology peers could support the sector backdrop.