Reading USNA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track USNA free→Reading USNA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track USNA free→NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating that the company's profits are not strongly backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 36% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of major Consumer Staples companies. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $19.43. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $19 USNA trades at 12× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $30 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 36% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.87x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.45 → $0.43 (-4.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$164.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$373.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,230.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'inexpensive'.
The signal changed, indicating a shift to a mixed outlook. Valuation improved, moving to an inexpensive label.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it shows USANA is overcoming sector challenges. This could improve investor confidence.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported above 4% year over year in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 4% year over year in the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for USNA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, USANA Health Sciences, Inc. (the “Company” or “USANA”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended April 4, 2026. The release also announced that the Company will post a document titled “Management Commentary” on the Company’s website and that executives of the Company will hold a conference call with investors, to be broadcast over the World Wide Web and by telephone and provided access inf…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Packaged Foods & Meats.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
USNA USANA Health Sciences, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MDLZ Mondelez International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HSY Hershey Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KHC Kraft Heinz | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSN Tyson Foods | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | fair | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
USANA continues to reiterate its revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026, projecting net sales between $925 million and $1.0 billion.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $213.67M in 2025-Q3 to $250.22M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance of $925M to $1.0B. The trajectory shows delivering growth in line with guidance.
“The Company is reiterating its outlook for fiscal year 2026: Consolidated net sales $925 million to $1.0 billion.”
“The Company is providing its outlook for fiscal year 2026: Consolidated net sales $925 million to $1.0 billion.”
“The Company is issuing its initial net sales outlook for fiscal year 2026 in the range of $925 million to $1.0 billion.”
USANA reiterates its EPS guidance for fiscal year 2026, projecting diluted EPS between $1.11 and $1.45.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Diluted EPS was 0.41 in 2026-Q1, which is below the fiscal year 2026 guidance range of $1.11 to $1.45. The trajectory shows limited progress towards the EPS target.
“The Company is reiterating its outlook for fiscal year 2026: Diluted EPS $1.11 to $1.45.”
USANA reiterates its adjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal year 2026, projecting between $101 million and $109 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income was $13.87M in 2026-Q1, which contributes to the fiscal year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $101M to $109M. The trajectory shows progress towards the EBITDA target.
“The Company is reiterating its outlook for fiscal year 2026: Adjusted EBITDA $101 million to $109 million.”
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 17, 2026, USANA Health Sciences, Inc. (the “Company” or “USANA”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended January 3, 2026. The release also announced that the Company will post a document titled “Management Commentary” on the Company’s website and that executives of the Company will hold a conference call with investors, to be broadcast over the World Wide Web and by telephon…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Mr. Brown On February 5, 2026, the Company and Mr. Brown entered into a Transition Agreement (the “Transition Agreement”) which documents his transition from the Company’s Chief Executive Officer and President to a strategic advisor to Mr. Guest and the Company from January 7, 2026, through December 31, 2026 (the “Transition Period”). Mr. Brown’s e…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 8, 2026, USANA Health Sciences, Inc. (the “Company” or “USANA”) announced a leadership transition pursuant to which Jim Brown stepped down as Chief Executive Officer and President of the Company. Mr. Brown will remain with the Company in an advisory role for a period at the discretion of the Board of Directors. As part of this transition…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 12, 2026, USANA Health Sciences, Inc. (the “Company” or “USANA”) issued a press release announcing preliminary net sales for the full fiscal year ended January 3, 2026, and net sales guidance with respect to the Company's currently expected financial results for the fiscal year ending January 2, 2027. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 The information, including Exhibit 99.1, in this Current Report is being…
“Fiscal Year 2026 Outlook: Diluted EPS $1.11 to $1.45.”
“Fiscal Year 2026 Outlook: Adjusted EBITDA between $101.3 million and $109.3 million.”