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Track HRL free→Hormel Foods (HRL)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$24.66+0.35%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate. However, the sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, HRL is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 39% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Packaged Foods
- Market cap
- $13.62B
- Employees
- 20,000
- IPO date
- 1994-03-15
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $24.66. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$17.75consensus
Range $17.37 – $20.73
vs price: +39% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$21.60consensus
Range $20.07 – $31.64
vs price: +14% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiummedium confidence
At $25 the market pays 17× p/e — above the 13× p/e peer median but in line with its own 20× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $18 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
17.4x
peer 12.5x · own history 19.9x
Premium
1.4x peer
0.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
39%
our forecast 2%
Our fair value
$17.71
range $17.38 – $20.95
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 39% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
89th pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.16x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
77th pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised -4.8% / 30d, n=8for period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.37 → $0.35 (-4.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 6 cut, 8 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 30% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.2% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in maturing (~3.0 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$124.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$221.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,429.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelmoderate change
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for adjusted EPS in Q3 to meet or exceed $1.43 to $1.51
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows strong earnings and good management.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Adjusted EPS reported in Q3 between $1.43 and $1.51.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS was below $1.43.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HRL yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in consumer spending trends post-FOMC meeting
- Watch for Consumer Staples revenue growth to speed up above 5%.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like KHC, GIS, and MKC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Staples sector momentum should keep lifting HRL and other Consumer Staples names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If HRL raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-28), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If HRL beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a solid beat of +14% on the 2026-04-30 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If HRL cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-28), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like KHC, GIS, and MKC start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Staples tailwind helping HRL and other Consumer Staples names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-125d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers . On June 9, 2026, Hormel Foods Corporation (the “Company”) entered into an International Assignment Letter (the “Assignment Agreement”) with Swen Neufeldt, the Company’s Group Vice President, International, in connection with Mr. Neufeldt’s assignment to the Company’s subsidiary, Hormel Foods Asia Pacific Pte. Ltd., in Singapore. Mr. Neufeldt will…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.