Reading CPB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CPB free→Reading CPB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CPB free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating some uncertainty in cash backing reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind, suggesting challenges in the current environment. Peer multiples imply a price about 25% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include guidance changes from CPB and performance trends from sector bellwethers like KHC, GIS, and HRL. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $21.77. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $22 CPB trades at 9× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $30 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $17–$28. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 24% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.81x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.49 → $0.48 (-1.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 7 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 2 downgrades / 30d, 8 maintained. 9% of analysts rate Buy.
9 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -8.6% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 13.3% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$103.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$311.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,856.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Falling revenue shows problems in reaching steady growth. This may affect investor trust.
Confirms:Q3 revenue falls year over year worse than -8%.
Disproves:Q3 revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CPB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$17.00 – $28.00 (median $21.00) · 19 analysts · as of 2026-06-09
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Packaged Foods & Meats.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CPB Campbell's Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MDLZ Mondelez International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HSY Hershey Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KHC Kraft Heinz | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSN Tyson Foods | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Campbell's aims to accelerate cost savings initiatives to mitigate cost headwinds and support continued investment in its brands.
Campbell's is committed to creating sustainable profitable growth over the long term.
Campbell's reaffirms its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance for organic net sales, Adjusted EBIT, and Adjusted EPS.
Increase trade investments in the Snacks business to drive growth.
Why it matters: Keeping the same guidance shows they believe they can meet their goals. This is true even with some problems.
Confirms:Management says the guidance for the full year of fiscal 2026 stays the same.
Disproves:Management lowers the guidance for the full year of fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show revenue trends and management's growth plans.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth or positive guidance.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows revenue is still declining or has negative guidance.
Why it matters: A decline worse than -2% would show ongoing weakness in sales, impacting growth outlook.
Confirms:Q4 organic net sales decline worse than -2% year over year.
Disproves:Q4 organic net sales decline better than -1% year over year.
Why it matters: Lowering guidance shows how management is reacting to falling revenue. This may mean more problems.
Confirms:Management cuts revenue guidance for fiscal 2026 to below $2.5B.
Disproves:Management keeps or raises fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to above $2.6B.
Why it matters: Better sector growth could mean a recovery. This would help Campbell's growth outlook.
Confirms:Consumer Staples sector revenue growth is above 5% year over year.
Disproves:Consumer Staples sector revenue growth is below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Successful new products in Snacks could signal a turnaround in this struggling segment.
Confirms:Announcement of successful new product launches in the Snacks segment.
Disproves:No new product launches or poor performance of existing products in the Snacks segment.
Why it matters: Saving more money can help deal with inflation. It can also improve profit margins.
Confirms:Total cost savings achieved exceeds $375 million by fiscal 2028.
Disproves:Total savings will be under $200 million by fiscal 2028.
Why it matters: A recovery shows that actions taken to stabilize this segment are working.
Confirms:Snacks segment net sales stabilize or grow in the next quarter.
Disproves:Snacks segment net sales decline further in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Incremental investments could boost sales in a key growth area. This will show if management is serious about growth.
Confirms:They announced new trade investments over $10 million in the Snacks business.
Disproves:There are no new investments. There are also no cuts to current investments.
and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. Purchase Agreements On December 8, 2025, Campbell Investment Company, a Delaware corporation (“ CIC ”) and subsidiary of The Campbell’s Company (“ Campbell’s ”), entered into a Sale and Purchase Agreement (the “ Sale and Purchase Agreement ”), with Antonio Romano, Felice Romano, Luigi Romano, Natalina Romano, Evolve S.r.l., a limited liability company ( società a responsabilità limitata ) incorporated under the laws of Italy, and F.A.L. Holdings LLC…
Other Information. On December 11, 2025, The Campbell’s Company (“Campbell’s” or the “Company”) priced an offering of $550,000,000 aggregate principal amount of senior unsecured notes bearing interest at a fixed rate of 4.550% per annum, due March 21, 2031 (the “Notes”). The Notes were offered and sold pursuant to an Underwriting Agreement dated December 11, 2025 (the “Underwriting Agreement”) among Campbell’s and Barclays Capital Inc., BNP Paribas Securities Corp., BofA Securities, Inc., Cit…