Reading KHC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KHC free→Reading KHC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KHC free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and it has a capital-unfriendly stance. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If KHC cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $23.80. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $24 KHC trades at 9× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $32 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $18–$25. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 25% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.82x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
20 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated volatile grew net income 42% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=368).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.53 → $0.53 (-1.2% / 30d). 3 raised, 9 cut, 16 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 5% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -10.0% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$104.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$289.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,327.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A decline worse than 3.5% would signal ongoing struggles in the U.S. market.
Confirms:Q2 organic net sales decline worse than 3.5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 organic net sales decline less than 1.5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Threatens: Turn around U.S. business and accelerate international growth
Inflation and GLP-1 impact could hinder U.S. turnaround.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On June 8, 2026, Kraft Heinz Foods Company (the “Company”) has instructed Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, as the trustee under the indenture governing the Company’s 3.875% Senior Notes due 2027 (the “Notes”), to distribute to all registered holders of the Notes a notice of partial redemption of $1 billion aggregate principal amount of the $1.35 billion aggregate principal amount currently outstanding of the Notes. The Notes will be redeemed on July 8, 2026 (the…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$18.00 – $25.00 (median $22.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-03
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Packaged Foods & Meats.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KHC Kraft Heinz | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MDLZ Mondelez International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HSY Hershey Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
TSN Tyson Foods | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GIS General Mills | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on returning the business to profitable growth by investing in marketing, sales, and R&D.
Focus on maintaining strong Free Cash Flow and capital allocation discipline.
Maintain the 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance range of $1.98 to $2.10.
Focus on improving U.S. business performance and boosting growth in international markets.
Focus on mitigating the impact of earnings miss and improving financial performance.
Why it matters: The earnings miss can affect investor confidence and future guidance. It's crucial to monitor.
Confirms:Management talks about the earnings miss and shares a clear plan to recover next.
Disproves:Management does not address the earnings miss, which hurts investor confidence more.
Why it matters: Management's ability to improve the U.S. business is key for growth and profit.
Confirms:Management shares a clear plan. It includes measurable targets for better U.S. business performance.
Disproves:No clear plan or continued poor performance metrics from the U.S. segment.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Kraft Heinz is returning to profitable growth after a recent earnings miss.
Confirms:Earnings per share (EPS) is higher than management's guidance for 2026.
Disproves:EPS is lower than management's guidance. This shows ongoing struggles.
Why it matters: The success or failure of the Tender Offer will impact Kraft Heinz's debt management strategy.
Confirms one read:The Tender Offer is fully subscribed by the June 5 deadline.
Confirms the other:The Tender Offer is not fully subscribed by the June 5 deadline.
Why it matters: Managing Free Cash Flow is key for Kraft Heinz's financial health. Changes can impact investments.
Confirms one read:Management gives a good update on Free Cash Flow expectations in the next earnings call.
Confirms the other:Management reports a drop in Free Cash Flow expectations during the earnings call.
Why it matters: Gaining more market share will help the turnaround plan. It will also raise investor confidence.
Confirms:Market share in the U.S. shows a notable increase in key categories.
Disproves:Market share continues to decline in key categories.
Why it matters: The redemption of $1 billion in senior notes will impact Kraft Heinz's debt profile and cash flow.
Confirms:The $1 billion redemption is completed successfully. This happens without taking on more debt.
Disproves:Kraft Heinz delays or cancels the redemption. This shows possible cash flow problems.
Why it matters: A drop below 100% would indicate potential cash flow issues amid rising costs.
Confirms:Free Cash Flow conversion falls below 100%.
Disproves:Free Cash Flow conversion remains at or above 100%.
Advances: Return to profitable growth
CEO's innovation push aligns with growth objectives.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 21, 2026, Kraft Heinz Foods Company (the “Issuer”), a 100% owned operating subsidiary of The Kraft Heinz Company (the “Guarantor”), issued €500,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of its 3.500% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “2031 Notes”) and €500,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of its 3.950% Senior Notes due 2034 (the “2034 Notes” and, together with the 2031 Notes, the “Notes”) pursuant to an effective shelf registration statement on For…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, The Kraft Heinz Company issued a press release announcing results for the first quarter ended March 28, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of, or otherwise regarded as filed under, the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (t…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On May 21, 2026, the Issuer issued a press release announcing the early tender results of its previously announced offer (the “Tender Offer”) to purchase for cash up to a maximum combined aggregate purchase price of $1,100,000,000, excluding accrued and unpaid interest, of its outstanding 4.375% Senior Notes due June 2046 (the “2046 Notes”) and 4.875% Senior Notes due October 2049 (the “2049 Notes” and, together with the 2046 Notes, the “Tender Offer Notes”), as desc…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information provided in