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McCormick & Company (MKC)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$47.19-1.42%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been volatile, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 25% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like KHC, GIS, and HRL, as these could influence MKC's outlook. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Packaged Foods
- Market cap
- $13.16B
- Employees
- 14,100
- IPO date
- 1994-02-22
- Next earnings
- 2026-06-25
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $47.19. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$37.84consensus
Range $28.79 – $49.23
vs price: +25% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$45.16consensus
Range $41.12 – $70.08
vs price: +4% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $48 MKC trades at 16× p/e, in line with its 13× p/e peer median. Our $38 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
15.7x
peer 12.5x · own history 26.2x
Premium
1.2x peer
0.6x its own history
Growth the price needs
25%
our forecast 11%
Our fair value
$38.39
range $28.63 – $49.32
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 25% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
71st pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.55x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated fragile grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
7th pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral10 analysts, 53% Buyfor period ending 2026-08-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.84 → $0.84 (-0.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 10 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 53% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 10.2% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in maturing (~3.0 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$128.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$281.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,949.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 22d
Watch for Q2 organic sales growth below 1%
Why it matters: Weak organic sales growth may show problems for McCormick's market position and growth plans.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 organic sales growth was less than 1%.
Disproves:Q2 organic sales growth was more than 3%.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MKC yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in consumer spending trends post-FOMC meeting
- Watch for Consumer Staples revenue growth to speed up above 5%.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like KHC, GIS, and HRL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Staples sector momentum should keep lifting MKC and other Consumer Staples names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If MKC raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-03-31), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If MKC beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a solid beat of +10% on the 2026-02-28 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If MKC cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-03-31), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like KHC, GIS, and HRL start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Staples tailwind helping MKC and other Consumer Staples names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2622d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Cindy Hoots On May 19, 2026, the Board of the McCormick & Company, Incorporated (the “Company”) appointed Cindy Hoots to the Board of the Company with effect from June 1, 2026, on which date she will become a member of the Audit Committee of the Board. Ms. Hoots is the recently retired Chief Digital Officer and CIO of AstraZeneca PLC…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+4.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.