Reading MKC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been volatile, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 25% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like KHC, GIS, and HRL, as these could influence MKC's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $47.19. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $48 MKC trades at 16× p/e, in line with its 13× p/e peer median. Our $38 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 25% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.55x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated fragile grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.84 → $0.84 (-0.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 53% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 10.2% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$128.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$281.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,949.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Weak organic sales growth may show problems for McCormick's market position and growth plans.
Confirms:Q2 organic sales growth was less than 1%.
Disproves:Q2 organic sales growth was more than 3%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MKC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Cindy Hoots On May 19, 2026, the Board of the McCormick & Company, Incorporated (the “Company”) appointed Cindy Hoots to the Board of the Company with effect from June 1, 2026, on which date she will become a member of the Audit Committee of the Board. Ms. Hoots is the recently retired Chief Digital Officer and CIO of AstraZeneca PLC…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Packaged Foods & Meats.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MKC McCormick & Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | full | moderate |
MDLZ Mondelez International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HSY Hershey Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KHC Kraft Heinz | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSN Tyson Foods | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
16 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated volatile grew net income 42% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=368).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on integrating the Unilever foods business to drive growth and efficiency.
Continue to drive organic sales growth through pricing and volume improvements.
Ensure adequate financing is secured for the Unilever transaction.
Why it matters: Earnings per share below expectations may show profit problems and hurt investor trust.
Confirms:Q2 earnings per share reported below $3.05.
Disproves:Q2 earnings per share reported above $3.13.
Why it matters: Lower operating income growth may mean rising costs and problems with profits.
Confirms:Operating income growth was below 16%.
Disproves:Operating income growth was above 20%.
Why it matters: Better margins show good cost management and pricing power. This shows the company can stay profitable.
Confirms:Gross profit margin reported above 38.6% for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Gross profit margin reported below 37.8% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Strong income growth shows good cost control and pricing power. This can improve margins.
Confirms:Q2 adjusted operating income grew more than 20%.
Disproves:Q2 adjusted operating income grew less than 15%.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Term Loan Agreement On April 28, 2026, McCormick & Company, Incorporated, a Maryland corporation (“McCormick”), entered into a Term Loan Agreement (the “Term Loan Agreement”), by and among McCormick, the lenders party thereto and Citibank, N.A., as administrative agent (the “Administrative Agent”), in connection with the financing of McCormick’s pending combination with the foods business of Unilever PLC, a public limited company registered in Engla…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Other Events. As previously disclosed, in connection with the Merger Agreement, McCormick entered into a commitment letter on March 31, 2026 (the “Bridge Commitment Letter”) with Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Goldman Sachs Bank USA and Morgan Stanley Senior Funding, Inc. (collectively, the “Commitment Parties”), pursuant to which the Commitment Parties agreed, subject to the terms and conditions set forth therein, to provide a senior unsecured 364-day bridge term loan credit facility (the “B…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 15, 2026, McCormick & Company, Incorporated (the “Company”), announced that Andrew Foust, President Americas, has been appointed to the role of Chief Integration Officer to lead the integration related to the Company’s recently announced combination with the foods business of Unilever PLC (the “Transaction”). Mr. Foust will continue as an…