McCormick & Company (MKC)

NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$46.35+1.40%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge McCormick & Company’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.29 → 3.21 EPS · FY ending Nov 30, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Generate strong cash flow to support financing and dividends	Strong cash flow supports dividends and financing plans.	Intact	free cash flow materially below 2025 level of $962 million	Free cash flow: $112.1M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: strong cash flow consistent with 2026 plans. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 1, 2026112,100,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Aug 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 3 quarters. Management secured a Term Loan Agreement in 2026-Q2 to finance the Unilever Foods combination. This financing step aligns with the planned capital allocation to support the transaction. The trajectory shows progress in capital structuring for the acquisition. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Expand adjusted operating income margin by 100 to 120 basis points	Profit margins are expanding, with operating income up 30% in Q2 and margin growth guided at 100-120 basis points.	Broken	adjusted operating margin falls below 16.0%	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted operating income grew 19% to 30% year-over-year in recent quarters, supported by CCI program cost savings and SG&A streamlining. Gross profit margin expanded by up to 270 basis points. The trajectory is delivering consistent margin expansion aligned with management's focus. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Sustain organic sales growth of 1% to 3% through volume and pricing	Organic sales growth is steady at about 1.7% with pricing and volume gains.	Intact	organic sales growth falls below 1% YoY	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Organic sales growth ranged from 1.2% to 2% across recent quarters, driven by pricing and volume in both Consumer and Flavor Solutions segments. The trajectory shows sustained but modest organic growth consistent with management's stated focus. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Realize $600 million annual run rate cost synergies from Unilever Foods integration	McCormick integrates Unilever Foods well, targeting $600M cost synergies.	Intact	cost synergies fall below $600 million annual run rate	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has detailed integration planning progress for the Unilever Foods combination, expecting $600 million in annual cost synergies with two-thirds by Year 2 and significant EPS accretion within 1 to 3 years post-close. The trajectory is delivering with substantial planning milestones achieved and regulatory filings on schedule. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-11-30 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.21

$3.30 → $3.21 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$8.15B

$8.18B → $8.15B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.30	$8,176,255,320	12 / 12
2026-07-25	$3.30	$8,183,757,809	7 / 9
2026-07-26	$3.30	$8,183,757,809	7 / 9
2026-07-27	$3.30	$8,183,757,809	7 / 9
2026-07-28	$3.30	$8,183,757,809	7 / 9
2026-07-29	$3.30	$8,176,255,320	12 / 12
2026-07-30	$3.30	$8,176,255,320	12 / 12
2026-07-31	$3.30	$8,176,255,320	12 / 12
2026-08-01	$3.30	$8,183,757,809	7 / 9
2026-08-02	$3.30	$8,183,757,809	7 / 9
2026-08-03	$3.30	$8,176,255,320	12 / 12
2026-08-04	$3.30	$8,176,255,320	12 / 12
2026-08-05	$3.30	$8,176,255,320	12 / 12
2026-08-06	$3.30	$8,183,757,809	7 / 9
2026-08-07	$3.30	$8,183,757,809	7 / 9
2026-08-08	$3.30	$8,183,757,809	7 / 9
2026-08-09	$3.30	$8,176,255,320	12 / 12
2026-08-10	$3.30	$8,183,757,809	7 / 9
2026-08-12	$3.30	$8,183,757,809	7 / 9
2026-08-13	$3.30	$8,183,757,809	7 / 9
2026-08-14	$3.30	$8,183,757,809	7 / 9
2026-08-15	$3.30	$8,183,757,809	7 / 9
2026-08-16	$3.30	$8,183,757,809	7 / 9
2026-08-17	$3.30	$8,183,757,809	7 / 9
2026-08-18	$3.30	$8,183,757,809	7 / 9
2026-08-19	$3.30	$8,183,757,809	7 / 9
2026-08-20	$3.29	$8,181,636,474	7 / 9
2026-08-21	$3.29	$8,181,636,474	7 / 9
2026-08-22	$3.29	$8,181,636,474	7 / 9
2026-08-23	$3.29	$8,181,636,474	7 / 9
2026-08-24	$3.29	$8,181,636,474	7 / 9
2026-08-25	$3.29	$8,181,636,474	7 / 9
2026-08-26	$3.29	$8,181,636,474	7 / 9
2026-08-27	$3.29	$8,181,636,474	7 / 9
2026-08-28	$3.29	$8,181,636,474	7 / 9
2026-08-29	$3.29	$8,181,636,474	7 / 9
2026-08-30	$3.29	$8,181,636,474	7 / 9
2026-08-31	$3.29	$8,181,636,474	7 / 9
2026-09-01	$3.29	$8,181,636,474	7 / 9
2026-09-02	$3.29	$8,181,636,474	7 / 9
2026-09-03	$3.29	$8,181,669,807	7 / 9
2026-09-04	$3.29	$8,181,669,807	7 / 9
2026-09-05	$3.29	$8,181,669,807	7 / 9
2026-09-06	$3.29	$8,181,669,807	7 / 9
2026-09-07	$3.29	$8,181,669,807	7 / 9
2026-09-08	$3.29	$8,181,669,807	7 / 9
2026-09-09	$3.29	$8,181,669,807	7 / 9
2026-09-10	$3.29	$8,181,669,807	7 / 9
2026-09-11	$3.29	$8,181,669,807	7 / 9
2026-09-12	$3.29	$8,179,558,696	7 / 9
2026-09-13	$3.29	$8,179,558,696	7 / 9
2026-09-14	$3.29	$8,179,558,696	7 / 9
2026-09-15	$3.29	$8,178,114,251	7 / 9
2026-09-16	$3.29	$8,178,114,251	7 / 9
2026-09-17	$3.29	$8,178,114,251	7 / 9
2026-09-18	$3.29	$8,178,114,251	7 / 9
2026-09-19	$3.29	$8,178,114,251	7 / 9
2026-09-20	$3.29	$8,179,706,819	7 / 9
2026-09-21	$3.29	$8,179,706,819	7 / 9
2026-09-22	$3.29	$8,179,706,819	7 / 9
2026-09-23	$3.29	$8,179,706,819	7 / 9
2026-09-24	$3.29	$8,179,706,819	7 / 9
2026-09-25	$3.29	$8,179,706,819	7 / 9
2026-09-26	$3.29	$8,179,706,819	7 / 9
2026-09-27	$3.29	$8,179,706,819	7 / 9
2026-09-28	$3.29	$8,179,706,819	7 / 9
2026-09-29	$3.29	$8,179,706,819	7 / 9
2026-09-30	$3.29	$8,179,706,819	7 / 9
2026-10-01	$3.29	$8,179,706,819	7 / 9
2026-10-02	$3.24	$8,155,658,499	7 / 9
2026-10-03	$3.21	$8,154,768,499	8 / 9
2026-10-04	$3.21	$8,154,768,499	8 / 9
2026-10-05	$3.21	$8,154,768,499	8 / 9
2026-10-06	$3.21	$8,154,768,499	8 / 9
2026-10-07	$3.21	$8,154,768,499	7 / 9
2026-10-08	$3.21	$8,154,768,499	7 / 9
2026-10-09	$3.21	$8,154,768,499	7 / 9
2026-10-10	$3.21	$8,154,768,499	7 / 9
2026-10-11	$3.21	$8,154,768,499	7 / 9
2026-10-12	$3.21	$8,154,768,499	7 / 9
2026-10-13	$3.21	$8,154,768,499	7 / 9
2026-10-14	$3.21	$8,154,772,309	7 / 9
2026-10-15	$3.21	$8,154,772,309	7 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	8	7
2026-06-01	8	7
2026-07-01	8	7
2026-08-01	8	7
2026-09-01	8	8
2026-10-01	7	8

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 2 · prior Jun 26

$52.00 → $48.00-7.7%

Stifel NicolausOct 2

$48.00New observation · no comparable prior

Deutsche BankOct 2 · prior Jun 26

$60.00 → $57.00-5.0%

BernsteinOct 2 · prior Jun 26

$68.00 → $59.00-13.2%

BarclaysOct 2 · prior Jun 29

$55.00 → $47.00-14.5%

Coker PalmerSep 18

$62.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$37.40$74.80

0 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Generate strong cash flow to support financing and dividendsFree cash flow: $112.1M
Expand adjusted operating income margin by 100 to 120 basis pointsPublished status: Broken
Sustain organic sales growth of 1% to 3% through volume and pricingDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Realize $600 million annual run rate cost synergies from Unilever Foods integrationDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-37.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

McCormick & Company outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state indicates that while there are challenges, the fundamentals are holding up reasonably well.

What's priced into McCormick & Company

The market appears to have priced in a low level of execution quality, suggesting that expectations are not overly optimistic. Valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that some caution is warranted.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show continued moderate organic growth, supported by pricing and volume strategies. However, risks remain due to the fragile earnings quality and recent regulatory changes, which could impact performance.

What McCormick & Company hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to successfully integrate the Unilever Foods business and realize expected synergies. Additionally, macroeconomic factors like inflation trends and job market health will play a crucial role in shaping future performance.