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General Mills (GIS)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$34.27-0.70%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 29% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. If GIS cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Packaged Foods
- Market cap
- $18.42B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1928-06-26
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-01
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $34.27. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$49.35consensus
Range $38.95 – $55.62
vs price: -30% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$24.04consensus
Range $23.22 – $25.05
vs price: +43% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $34 GIS trades at 8× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $49 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $30–$53. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
7.8x
peer 12.5x · own history 14.9x
Premium
0.6x peer
0.5x its own history
Growth the price needs
-30%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$48.83
range $37.55 – $56.36
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 30% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
58th pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.01x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated fragile grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
13th pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the broad stock market.
Management & capital allocation
neutral10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish12 analysts, 19% Buyfor period ending 2026-08-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.81 → $0.80 (-2.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 8 cut, 12 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 19% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -2.3% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.0 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$88.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$260.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,688.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 22d
Watch for free cash flow conversion improving towards 95%
Why it matters: Better cash flow means stronger finances. It also leads to smoother operations.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Free cash flow conversion improves to 80% or higher.
Disproves:Free cash flow conversion remains below 70%.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-134d agoYahoo! Finance
Threatens: Organic net sales guidance down 1.5% to 2%
Volume declines threaten organic net sales guidance.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in consumer spending trends post-FOMC meeting
- Watch for Consumer Staples revenue growth to speed up above 5%.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like KHC, HRL, and MKC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Staples sector momentum should keep lifting GIS and other Consumer Staples names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If GIS raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-03-18), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If GIS cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-03-18), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like KHC, HRL, and MKC start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Staples tailwind helping GIS and other Consumer Staples names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GIS misses again next quarter like this past one (a solid miss of -12% on the 2026-02-28 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-061mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 5, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of General Mills, Inc. (the “Company”) elected Dana M. McNabb Chief Operating Officer of the Company effective June 1, 2026. The Board also elected Ms. McNabb to the Company’s Board effective June 1, 2026. A copy of the press release issued by the Company is furnished with this report as Exhibit…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.5 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.