Reading HSY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HSY free→Reading HSY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HSY free→NYSEConsumer StaplesConfectionersSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is robust. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive changes. Risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, but HSY is above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 116% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $181.09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
We can't anchor a clean multiple for HSY right now, so treat our $84 fair value as low-confidence. Analysts: $185–$255. Not investment advice.
$185.00 – $255.00 (median $222.50) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 116% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 21%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.15x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.44 → $1.43 (-0.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 15 cut, 18 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 38% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.7% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$101.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$273.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,558.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop below this level could signal weakening demand in a maturing sector.
Confirms:Q2 net sales growth reported below 4%.
Disproves:Q2 net sales growth reported at or above 4%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
New product launch can drive net sales growth.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Director — Joe Park: Joe Park appointed to the Board and will serve on Audit and Finance, and Risk Management Committees.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Packaged Foods & Meats.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HSY Hershey Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MDLZ Mondelez International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KHC Kraft Heinz | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSN Tyson Foods | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GIS General Mills | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
17 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated volatile grew net income 42% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=368).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on driving net sales growth through brand investment, innovation, and strategic pricing.
Maintain capital expenditures within the range of $425 million to $475 million for 2026.
Ensure the effective tax rate remains within the range of 25% to 27% for 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is growing sales and managing costs.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows a profit margin above 15%.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows a profit margin below 10%.
Why it matters: Mitchell Arends' leadership may improve the supply chain and cut costs.
Confirms:Q3 showed good supply chain performance after Arends started.
Disproves:Supply chain problems continue or get worse after the transition.
Why it matters: The acquisition is expected to boost sales. Its contribution will show if the strategy works.
Confirms:LesserEvil's sales grew more than 20% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Sales growth from LesserEvil is less than 20% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher advertising costs can lower profit margins. This shows more competition.
Confirms:Advertising costs rose more than 5% from last year.
Disproves:Advertising expenses increase less than or equal to 5%.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin could signal rising costs that hurt profitability.
Confirms:Gross margin reported below 39%.
Disproves:Gross margin reported above 40%.
Why it matters: The company is managing its effective tax rate. Changes can impact net income.
Confirms one read:Effective tax rate reported below 25% in Q2 2026.
Confirms the other:Effective tax rate reported above 27% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can affect how much consumers spend and Hershey's sales.
Confirms one read:Consumer spending shows a significant increase after the FOMC meeting on June 17.
Confirms the other:Consumer spending fell after the FOMC meeting on June 17.
Why it matters: Higher spending could impact cash flow and future growth plans.
Confirms:Spending is over $475 million.
Disproves:Spending is under $425 million.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 28, 2026, The Hershey Company (the “Company”) announced that Jason Reiman, Senior Vice President, Chief Supply Chain Officer, intends to retire from the Company in the second quarter of 2027. Mr. Reiman will step down from his current role on June 22, 2026, and will remain with the Company as Senior Vice President, Supply Chain Modernization…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Andrew Archambault, President, US of The Hershey Company (the “Company”) will be leaving the Company effective May 1, 2026. The Company has begun a search for his replacement.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 31, 2026, The Hershey Company (the “Company”) issued a press release reaffirming its 2026 Full-year Financial Outlook. A copy of such press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.