Reading SJM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SJM free→Reading SJM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SJM free→NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared with sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $115.93. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $116 SJM trades at 12× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $128 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $95–$137. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 9% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted -10.62x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.21 → $2.20 (-0.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 7 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 12 maintained. 48% of analysts rate Buy.
11 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 9.2% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$110.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$248.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,282.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If sales guidance goes down, it shows market problems. This can hurt investor trust.
Confirms:Fiscal 2027 sales guidance shows a decrease of 3.0% to 4.0% compared to the prior year.
Disproves:Fiscal 2027 sales guidance shows sales are stable or growing from last year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Threatens: Improve profitability and accelerate earnings growth
Earnings miss raises concerns about profitability and growth.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 9, 2026, The J. M. Smucker Company (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended April 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit attached hereto, is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Sec…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$95.00 – $137.00 (median $125.00) · 19 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Packaged Foods & Meats.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SJM J.M. Smucker Company (The) | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 50 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MDLZ Mondelez International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HSY Hershey Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KHC Kraft Heinz | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSN Tyson Foods | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on organic volume growth across key platforms to enhance profitability and accelerate earnings growth.
Maintain a disciplined approach to capital deployment to support long-term growth and shareholder value.
Focus on improving profitability and accelerating earnings growth through strategic initiatives.
The company aims to maintain capital expenditures at $325 million for fiscal year 2026.
The company targets free cash flow of approximately $975 million for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: New leaders can change company plans and how it works. This affects performance.
Confirms one read:Good updates or changes in plans can happen after the COO leaves.
Confirms the other:Bad updates or delays in plans can happen after the COO leaves.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is essential for debt repayment and shareholder returns.
Confirms:Free cash flow for fiscal year 2027 is about $1.0 billion.
Disproves:Free cash flow for fiscal year 2027 falls significantly below $1.0 billion.
Why it matters: Strong organic growth is important for long-term success. It can help make more money.
Confirms:Management says sales growth is improving in key product areas.
Disproves:Management says there are still problems with organic volume growth.
Why it matters: Hitting this growth target shows the company is improving sales. It helps boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported at or above 4% for fiscal 2026.
Disproves:Revenue growth reported below 3.5% for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Achieving this cash flow target is crucial for financial health and flexibility. It impacts future investments.
Confirms:Free cash flow reported at or above $975M for fiscal 2026.
Disproves:Free cash flow reported below $975M for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: If the sector's revenue growth picks up, it may benefit J.M. Smucker. This could improve overall performance.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth reported below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: An improvement in sector performance could boost J.M. Smucker's growth outlook.
Confirms:Sector performance gets better, showing good growth chances.
Disproves:Sector performance keeps getting worse and stays in trouble.
Why it matters: Maintaining CAPEX at this level is key for growth and investment. It shows commitment to future projects.
Confirms:CAPEX reported at or above $325M for fiscal 2026.
Disproves:CAPEX reported below $325M for fiscal 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. The J. M. Smucker Company (the “ Company ”) previously reported on a Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on February 10, 2026, that John Brase, formerly President and Chief Operating Officer, was no longer an executive officer of the Company. In connection with Mr. Brase’s departure from the Company, the Com…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, The J. M. Smucker Company (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended January 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit attached hereto, is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 24, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) of The J. M. Smucker Company (the “ Company ”) increased the size of the Board to eleven (11) members and elected Woo-Sung (Bruce) Chung and David Singer to serve on the Board, in each case effective on April 15, 2026. In addition to their service on the Board, Mr. Chung and Mr. Singer wi…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On February 10, 2026, The J. M. Smucker Company (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing that John Brase, President and Chief Operating Officer, is no longer an executive officer of the Company, effective as of February 9, 2026. The Company anticipates that it will enter into a separation agreement with Mr. Brase upon his departure a…