NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-07-31
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Create your account →Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Packaged Foods & Meats: fringe margins under pressure (0q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue growth is slowing — up about 4% over the past year and decelerating.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens weak on capital allocation, margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskJ. M. Smucker Company must improve profitability and accelerate earnings growth to justify its current valuation. Recent earnings reports show steady revenue growth, with a 6% year-over-year increase and a recent earnings beat of 4.9%. It trades at 13× P/E versus a peer median of 12×, indicating that the price reflects less growth than forecasted. A specific risk is the potential for SJM to cut guidance on the next call, which our model puts at a 22% probability of a miss. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% above where it trades.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-31. SJM is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 20 analysts currently covering SJM (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 12 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for SJM in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-08-01. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Packaged Foods & Meats — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Dividend hike supports disciplined capital deployment strategy.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-31. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $119.26
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $119.26.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Maintain disciplined capital deployment
Dividend increase signals improved profitability and cash flow.
Acquisition perceived as a significant misstep affecting capital deployment.
Advances: Improve profitability and accelerate earnings growth
Strong earnings and cost deflation support profitability and earnings growth.
Q4 earnings underperformance may hinder growth.
Strong quarter suggests potential for future growth.
Earnings beat and higher volumes support growth.
