J.M. Smucker Company (The) (SJM)

NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$127.43+1.19%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge J.M. Smucker Company (The)’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.93 → 10.96 EPS · FY ending Apr 30, 2028 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain disciplined capital deployment at $325 million	The company spends $325 million on capital wisely.	Intact	CAPEX rises above $400 million or falls below $250 million	Capital expenditures: $88.4M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: CAPEX = $325 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 26, 202688,400,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q1. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve profitability and accelerate earnings growth	Profit per share is near $10.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $9.0 next year	Diluted EPS: $3.03 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $9.75. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 26, 20263.03 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d04e8b29-c420-4b1b-9fc7-2a11d53c855f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Operating income rose sharply from $45.6M in 2026-Q1 to $511.6M in 2026-Q3, and adjusted EPS grew from $1.90 to $3.24 over the same period. Management consistently emphasizes improving profitability and earnings growth, and the financial results show delivering substantial improvement in profitability. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Generate free cash flow near $1 billion	Free cash flow is about $1 billion.	Intact	FCF falls below $800 million next year	Free cash flow: $337.3M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: FCF >= $1 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 26, 2026337,300,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q1. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Drive focused organic volume growth to increase net sales	A primary condition in J.M. Smucker Company (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is >=4% annual revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below -1% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $2.11B in 2026-Q1 to $2.22B in 2026-Q3, with volume/mix increases noted in key platforms like Uncrustables and coffee. Management consistently emphasizes organic volume growth, and the trajectory shows delivering growth in net sales and volume/mix in key segments. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$10.96

$10.78 → $10.96 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$9.07B

$8.79B → $9.07B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$10.78	$8,793,961,058	6 / 11
2026-07-25	$10.78	$8,793,961,058	6 / 11
2026-07-26	$10.78	$8,796,294,392	6 / 11
2026-07-27	$10.78	$8,796,294,392	6 / 11
2026-07-28	$10.78	$8,796,294,392	6 / 11
2026-07-29	$10.78	$8,796,294,392	6 / 11
2026-07-30	$10.78	$8,796,294,392	6 / 11
2026-07-31	$10.78	$8,796,294,392	6 / 11
2026-08-01	$10.78	$8,796,294,392	6 / 11
2026-08-02	$10.78	$8,796,294,392	6 / 11
2026-08-03	$10.78	$8,796,294,392	6 / 11
2026-08-04	$10.78	$8,796,294,392	5 / 11
2026-08-05	$10.78	$8,796,294,392	5 / 11
2026-08-06	$10.78	$8,796,294,392	5 / 11
2026-08-08	$10.78	$8,796,294,392	5 / 11
2026-08-09	$10.78	$8,796,294,392	5 / 11
2026-08-10	$10.78	$8,796,294,392	5 / 11
2026-08-12	$10.78	$8,796,294,392	5 / 11
2026-08-13	$9.02	$8,790,209,660	5 / 14
2026-08-14	$10.78	$8,796,294,392	5 / 11
2026-08-15	$10.78	$8,796,294,392	5 / 11
2026-08-16	$10.78	$8,796,294,392	5 / 11
2026-08-17	$10.78	$8,796,294,392	5 / 11
2026-08-18	$10.78	$8,796,294,392	5 / 11
2026-08-19	$10.78	$8,796,294,392	5 / 11
2026-08-20	$10.79	$8,905,045,103	6 / 11
2026-08-21	$10.79	$8,904,872,812	6 / 10
2026-08-22	$10.79	$8,904,872,812	6 / 10
2026-08-23	$10.79	$8,904,872,812	6 / 10
2026-08-24	$10.79	$8,904,872,812	6 / 10
2026-08-25	$10.79	$8,904,872,812	6 / 10
2026-08-26	$10.79	$8,904,872,812	6 / 10
2026-08-27	$10.79	$8,904,872,812	6 / 10
2026-08-28	$10.79	$8,904,872,812	6 / 10
2026-08-29	$10.93	$9,068,891,885	6 / 11
2026-08-30	$10.93	$9,068,891,885	7 / 11
2026-08-31	$10.93	$9,068,891,885	7 / 11
2026-09-01	$10.93	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-02	$10.93	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-03	$10.93	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-04	$10.93	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-05	$10.93	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-06	$10.93	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-07	$10.93	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-08	$10.93	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-09	$10.93	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-10	$10.93	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-11	$10.93	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-12	$10.93	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-13	$10.93	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-14	$10.93	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-15	$10.93	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-16	$10.93	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-17	$10.93	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-18	$10.93	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-19	$10.93	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-20	$10.93	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-21	$10.93	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-22	$10.93	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-23	$10.96	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-24	$10.96	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-25	$10.96	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-26	$10.96	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-27	$10.96	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-28	$10.96	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-29	$10.96	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-09-30	$10.96	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-10-01	$10.96	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-10-02	$10.96	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-10-03	$10.96	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-10-04	$10.96	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-10-05	$10.96	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-10-06	$10.96	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-10-07	$10.96	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-10-08	$10.96	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-10-09	$10.96	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-10-10	$10.96	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-10-11	$10.96	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-10-12	$10.96	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-10-13	$10.96	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-10-14	$10.96	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12
2026-10-15	$10.96	$9,068,891,885	7 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	11	11	0
2026-06-01	14	11	3
2026-07-01	14	10	3
2026-08-01	15	9	2
2026-09-01	10	9	0
2026-10-01	10	9	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BernsteinOct 15 · prior Aug 27

$157.00 → $160.00+1.9%

$0$88.00$176.00

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain disciplined capital deployment at $325 millionCapital expenditures: $88.4M
Improve profitability and accelerate earnings growthPublished status: Under Pressure
Generate free cash flow near $1 billionFree cash flow: $337.3M
Drive focused organic volume growth to increase net salesDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 24, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-22.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

J.M. Smucker Company (The) outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a turnaround investment focused on improving fundamentals. The current thesis state indicates a watchful approach due to mixed recent changes and a recent shift in signal from mild favorable to mixed.

What's priced into J.M. Smucker Company (The)

The market currently prices SJM as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not fully anticipate the potential for improved profitability and organic growth.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with priorities to drive organic volume growth and improve profitability. However, there is moderate risk due to recent earnings surprises trending down, despite a low probability of missing expectations.

What J.M. Smucker Company (The) hinges on

The thesis hinges on key scenarios, including the potential for SJM to cut guidance or the impact of a weakening jobs report. Conversely, a reacceleration of inflation could benefit SJM and its peers in the Consumer Staples sector.