NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Improve profitability and accelerate earnings growth: FY27 EPS guidance $10.0 vs $9.75 target.
Smucker grows sales about 4% a year. Profit per share is near $10. The company spends $325 million on capital wisely. Free cash flow is about $1 billion. Cost cuts and coffee price drops help profits.
Sales may shrink 3-4% next year. Earnings per share could fall. Leadership changes may hurt execution. Growth and profit gains are not certain.
The price is about 13% below our fair value near $130. Analysts expect about 1% revenue decline. We see modest growth and profit stability ahead.
Breaks if: CAPEX rises above $400 million or falls below $250 million
Breaks if: EPS falls below $9.0 next year
Breaks if: FCF falls below $800 million next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on improving profitability and organic growth. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has not kept pace with industry peers, despite some positive financial results.
The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, suggesting that SJM is seen as relatively stable compared to peers. However, there is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market does not anticipate significant upside in the near term.
Management is on track with its priorities, showing strong growth in revenue and operating income. However, there is a moderate risk of missing future earnings expectations, as recent trends indicate a downward shift in earnings surprises.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential impact of a weakening jobs report and any changes in guidance from management. Additionally, a reacceleration of inflation could provide a favorable environment for SJM and its peers.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. J.M. Smucker reported strong Q1 FY27 results. Net sales grew 5% year-over-year to $2.2 billion. Adjusted EPS increased 71% to $3.24, beating expectations. The company raised its full-year guidance for sales and earnings. This suggests improved profitability and cash flow for the year.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below -1% next year
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SJM's performance will depend on its ability to maintain growth and manage risks effectively. Not investment advice.
