Reading SFD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SFD free→Reading SFD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SFD free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, indicating challenges in the broader market. Peer multiples imply a price about 21% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $25.95. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $26 SFD trades at 10× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $33 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 22% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.15x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated fragile grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.67 → $0.64 (-4.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$114.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$223.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,843.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates can change how much people spend. This affects food prices and Smithfield.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises rates. This shows a tighter monetary policy.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps rates the same or lowers them. This shows a more relaxed policy.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SFD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 28, 2026, Smithfield Foods, Inc. issued a press release announcing results of operations for its first quarter ended March 29, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in the preceding paragraph, as well as Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Packaged Foods & Meats.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SFD SMITHFIELD FOODS | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MDLZ Mondelez International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HSY Hershey Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KHC Kraft Heinz | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSN Tyson Foods | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=379).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Smithfield Foods aims to maintain capital expenditures between $350 million and $450 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Smithfield Foods plans to increase total company sales by low-single-digits compared to fiscal year 2025.
Smithfield Foods aims for an adjusted operating profit between $1.325 billion and $1.475 billion for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Retail sales data affects how much people spend. This impacts Smithfield's sales.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase year over year by more than 3%.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decline year over year by more than 1%.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects consumer confidence and spending, which are crucial for Smithfield's sales.
Confirms one read:GDP growth exceeds 2% in the third estimate.
Confirms the other:GDP growth is below 1% in the third estimate.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 24, 2026, Smithfield Foods, Inc. issued a press release announcing results of operations for its fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 28, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in the preceding paragraph, as well as Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act o…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On January 20, 2026, Smithfield Foods, Inc. (“ Smithfield ”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with Nathan’s Famous, Inc. (“ Nathan’s ”), and Boardwalk Merger Sub Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Smithfield (“ Merger Sub ”). Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, and upon the terms and subject to the conditions thereof and in accordance with the General Corporation Law of the State of Delaware (“ DGCL ”), Merger Su…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 28, 2025, Smithfield Foods, Inc. issued a press release announcing results of operations for its third fiscal quarter ended September 28, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in the preceding paragraph, as well as Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934,…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 12, 2025, Smithfield Foods, Inc. issued a press release announcing results of operations for its second fiscal quarter ended June 29, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in the preceding paragraph, as well as Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as a…