SMITHFIELD FOODS (SFD)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-10-29
$18.34-1.13%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put SFD beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Packaged Foods & Meats is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Recent financial performance freshly dropped to the bottom half of its industry.
View ThesisMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, the balance sheet, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskSFD’s low-single-digit sales growth objective depends on healthier pork demand and execution in Fresh Pork and Hog Production. Revenue fell 8.3% year over year in Q3, despite an earnings beat. It trades at 8× P/E versus a 13× peer median and its 9× historical multiple. The price reflects less growth than our forecast, despite the revenue decline. Soft pork demand threatens sales growth, and reported profits are not well backed by cash. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 22%. Peer multiples imply a price about 44% above where it trades; the thesis has broken. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. SFD is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 8 analysts currently covering SFD (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 4 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for SFD in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare SFD with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFD Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Packaged Foods & Meats — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put SFD next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Increase total company sales low-single-digits
A sales forecast cut on soft pork demand threatens the low-single-digit sales objective.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $18.34
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $18.34.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Threatens: Achieve adjusted operating profit $1.225B to $1.375B
A lower annual revenue outlook threatens growth and raises risk to the adjusted operating profit target.
Threatens: Manage Fresh Pork and Hog Production segments amid market pressures
Weaker pork values impact Fresh Pork segment management.
Threatens: Manage Fresh Pork and Hog Production segments amid market pressures
Fresh Pork segment faces significant market pressures.
Advances: Achieve adjusted operating profit $1.325B to $1.475B
Record profit supports growth objective and overall thesis.
Threatens: Increase total company sales low-single-digits
Sales decline contradicts growth objective.
Threatens: Increase total company sales low-single-digits
Lower sales guidance impacts growth objective.
Threatens: Increase total company sales low-single-digits
Trimming forecasts indicates consumer spending issues.
