SMITHFIELD FOODS (SFD)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$20.52-6.77%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Increase total company sales by low single digits: rev -2.3% vs 2.0%.
Smithfield Foods keeps profit margins wide near 23%. It plans to spend about $400 million on capital projects in 2026. The company aims to grow sales by low single digits. Its stock trades cheap with a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.6.
Revenue fell from $4.23 billion in 2025-Q4 to $3.8 billion in 2026-Q1, missing growth goals. Legal and regulatory challenges could hurt profits. Analysts expect only about 1% revenue growth next year.
The price is about 19% below our fair value near $30. Analysts expect roughly 1% revenue growth. We see risk in sales growth but value in cheap valuation and stable margins.
Breaks if: Capex falls outside $350M-$450M range in FY26
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 22.5% in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 2% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable, defensive play within the Consumer Staples sector. The current thesis state reflects mixed execution and a cautious outlook due to macroeconomic headwinds.
The valuation suggests that SFD is priced cheaply compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap indicating that the market may be anticipating weaker performance. The current price reflects a low fragility tier, suggesting that the market does not fully account for the potential risks ahead.
Management's recent guidance indicates limited sales growth, with actual revenue declining slightly. However, operating profit has shown some improvement, though it remains below initial targets, reflecting a mixed fundamental trajectory.
Key forward scenarios include the potential for SFD to cut guidance, which would negatively impact sentiment. Conversely, a reacceleration of inflation or positive earnings from sector leaders could provide support for SFD's performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company beat earnings expectations, which supports the read. However, it pulled back on full-year sales guidance, which threatens growth objectives. Additionally, it expects to swing to an operating loss in its fresh pork business.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Drive total company sales growth at a low-single-digit rate compared to fiscal year 2025, reflecting cautious consumer spending and market conditions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management initially targeted low-single-digit sales growth for 2026 but updated to roughly flat in 2026-Q2 due to macroeconomic headwinds. Actual revenue declined 0.8% year-over-year in first half 2026, indicating limited progress against the original growth target.
“Total Company sales to be roughly flat compared to fiscal year 2025.”
“Total Company sales to be up low-single-digits compared to fiscal year 2025.”
“Total Company sales to be up low-single-digits compared to fiscal year 2025.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SFD's performance will depend on its ability to navigate macroeconomic challenges and improve sales growth. Not investment advice.