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Tyson Foods (TSN)
NYSEConsumer StaplesFarm ProductsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$57.29-0.24%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of key sector bellwethers. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Farm Products
- Market cap
- $20.22B
- Employees
- 133,000
- IPO date
- 1994-02-15
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-03
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $57.29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$56.94consensus
Range $51.15 – $89.91
vs price: +1% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$108.90consensus
Range $78.05 – $156.79
vs price: -47% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $57 TSN trades at 15× p/e, in line with its 13× p/e peer median. Our $57 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
14.7x
peer 12.5x · own history 14.6x
Premium
1.2x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
1%
our forecast 3%
Our fair value
$56.94
range $51.15 – $90.17
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 1% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
96th pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 4.72x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
91st pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish9 analysts, 31% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.06 → $1.06 (+0.2% / 30d). 7 raised, 1 cut, 9 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 31% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in (~3.0 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$96.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$224.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,907.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
The signal changed to "mild favorable." This indicates a positive shift. Risk fell. Management became more volatile. The sector backdrop remains a headwind. Valuation is still expensive compared to peers.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 11d
Watch for segment operating loss in Beef exceeding $500 million
Why it matters: A loss greater than this shows big problems in the Beef segment. This affects overall results.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Beef segment operating loss reported worse than $500 million.
Disproves:Beef segment loss reported better than $500 million.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-124d agoYahoo! Finance
New COO may impact execution on sales growth objectives.
ChallengesConfirmed
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in consumer spending trends post-FOMC meeting
- Watch for Consumer Staples revenue growth to speed up above 5%.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like ADM, BG, and CALM keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Staples sector momentum should keep lifting TSN and other Consumer Staples names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If TSN raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-04), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If TSN beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a solid beat of +12% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If TSN cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-04), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like ADM, BG, and CALM start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Staples tailwind helping TSN and other Consumer Staples names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-089d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of New Chief Operating Officer On June 8, 2026, Tyson Foods, Inc. ("the Company") announced that it appointed Wes Morris as Chief Operating Officer (“COO”), effective June 15, 2026. Devin Cole, the Company’s Chief Operating Officer, will step down from his role effective the same day. Mr. Morris, 60, was most recently the Company’s Grou…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.